Property Market

جريدة الخليج: 53 % حصة البيع على الخريطة في دبي خلال ثلاثة أشهر

سجل السوق العقاري المحلي في دبي بيع نحو 6350 وحدة سكنية خلال الربع الثالث من العام الجاري 2018، واستحوذت المبيعات على الخريطة على أكثر من النصف بواقع 53% (3366 وحدة)، وتصدرت كل من «الخليج التجاري» و«مدينة محمد بن راشد» و«دائرة قرية الجميرا» مبيعات الشقق على الخريطة خلال هذه الفترة.
وتصدرت «المدينة العالمية» و«مارينا دبي» و«دائرة قرية الجميرا» مبيعات الشقق الجاهزة بنسبة 32 % من مجموع مبيعات الشقق الجاهزة خلال الربع الثالث لعام 2018
أما مبيعات الفلل والمنازل الفردية الجاهزة فقد تجاوزت المبيعات على الخريطة في الربع الثالث من عام 2018 والتي تصدرتها «روعة الإمارات» (اميريتس ليفينج (و«المرابع العربية» و«داماك هيلز» والتي بلغت مجتمعة نسبة 30% من مجموع مبيعات الفلل والمنازل الفردية الجاهزة خلال الربع الثالث

استقرار سعري

ولفت التقرير المشترك بين «هاربور العقارية» و«بروبرتي مونيتور» إلى أن الأسعار التي تم تداولها للفلل والمنازل الفردية قد استقرت خلال الربع الثالث من عام 2018 على أقل من متوسط أسعار عام 2017، وضاقت فجوة السعر بين الشقق والمنازل المستقلة. كما اتجهت أسعار الشقق أيضًا إلى الانخفاض وبلغت في المتوسط نحو 1.2 مليون درهم في الربع الثالث من عام 2018. كما أن تداولات العقارات الجاهزة التي بدأت في منافسة أنشطة البيع على الخريطة للفلل والمنازل الفردية منذ نوفمبر/‏تشرين الثاني 2017، قد استمرت في اتخاذ نفس المنحى خلال هذا الربع

 
في غضون ذلك، وخلال الأشهر التسعة الأولى من عام 2018 استمرت تداولات البيع على الخريطة للشقق في التصدر حيث ركز المطورون اهتمامهم على تزويد خيارات منخفضة الأسعار وخطط الدفع الميسرة والمنافسة
والمنافسة والتنازل عن رسوم  التسجيل وغيرها من الحوافز الأخرى

الرئيسي والثانوي

وطبقًا للبيانات الصادرة عن «بروبرتي مونيتور» فإن 27% من سعر تداولات البيع على الخريطة للشقق خلال الأشهر التسعة الأولى من عام 2018 تراوح بين 1,200 إلى 1,500 درهم للقدم المربعة. وبالمقارنة فإن أعلى سعر في السوق الثانوي للشقق بلغ بين 500 و 800 درهم للقدم المربعة
واستمرت شقق الاستوديو والوحدات ذات غرفة النوم الواحدة في تصدر المشهد الأنشط من حيث التداولات في كل من المبيعات على الخريطة والسوق الثانوي في عام 2018 حتى تاريخه
في الربع الثالث من عام 2018 سجلت أسعار المبيعات في سوق العقارات انخفاضًا ربع سنوي بنسبة 1.4% و 1.3% للفلل والمنازل الفردية والشقق على التوالي. ومن المحتمل أن النشاط الاقتصادي الضعيف وتسليم الوحدات السكنية الجديدة من المطورين لاحقًا هذا العام، أن يفرض مزيدًا من الضغط لخفض أسعار مبيعات المساكن. وفي تلك الأثناء، فإن إعلان حكومة دولة الإمارات في عام 2018 عن لوائح التأشيرة الجديدة لمدة عشر سنوات وتأشيرة الإقامة لمدة خمس سنوات للأجانب المتقاعدين سيكون له تأثير إيجابي على السوق في الأجل القريب

أداء الإيجار

كان انخفاض أسعار إيجارات الوحدات السكنية أكثر وضوحًا في «دبي لاند» و«الروضة – ذا جرينز» وفي «روعة الإمارات» و«موتور سيتي» و«المرابع العربية» و«فيكتوري هايتس» و كان متوسط التغير على مدى 12 شهرًا نحو7%
ومن المتوقع أن يستمر انخفاض الأسعار خلال الربع الأخير من العام الجاري وبداية عام 2019 مع وجود خطط لتسليم مساكن جديدة بكل من الملكية الحرة ومجتمعات الإيجار غير المنتهي بالتمليك في دبي
ومع ذلك، فإن أثر ذلك على بعض المشاريع سيكون أقل وضوحًا إذا استفاد المطورون من محفزات الطلب الفريدة مثل الواجهة البحرية والتشطيبات عالية الجودة والمرافق المجتمعية المتميزة

المعروض القادم

جرى تسليم نحو 6,000 وحدة سكنية في أنحاء دبي في الربع الثالث من عام 2018، وتركزت غالبية عمليات التسليم خلال الربع الثالث لعام 2018 في «دائرة قرية جميرا» و«منطقة برج خليفة» و«تاون سكوير» و«دبي الجنوب». واستحوذت الشقق السكنية على أكثر من 72% الوحدات التي تم تسليمها. أما بالنسبة لباقي السنة، فستتركز غالبية المعروض القادم في مناطق «الخليج التجاري» و«دائرة قرية جميرا» و«مدينة دبي الرياضية» و«واحة دبي للسيليكون» و«تاون سكوير»

مهند الوادية: 1.2 و 1.9 مليون درهم متوسط السعر

قال مهند الوادية، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة «هاربور العقارية»: «من بين الملاحظات التي برزت في التقرير هذا عن السوق العقاري في دبي للربع الثالث من 2018، هو أن متوسط الأسعار الحالية للمنازل المستقلة والشقق يبلغ 1.9 مليون درهم و1.2 مليون درهم على التوالي، وهي تقريبا نفس أسعار ما رأيناه في الربع الأول من عام 2008 وقبل انهيار السوق المالي العالمي
وأضاف الوادية أن الفرق قبل عشر سنوات أن كنا في طفرة نمو اقتصادية سريعة متسارعة، حيث كان المشترون يلاحقون المكاسب المالية السريعة في ذلك الوقت، لم يتوقع الكثيرون أن السوق كان متجهاًً نحو الانخفاض الحاد، على الرغم من أن بعض العقول المنطقية تنبأت بحدوث هذه الحالة التي كانت وشيكة

محمد عبيدات: مبيعات الجاهز تتحرك للتفوقعلى نظيرتها على الخريطة

من جانبه أشار محمد عبيدات، الرئيس التنفيذي للتكنولوجيا في شركة بوروبرتي مونيتور إلى أن الجميع يدرك الوضع الحالي للسوق العقاري ونملك اليقين بأنه سيتحول قريبا للاتجاه الأعلى. ونرى أنه، بالنسبة للعديد من المشترين، فهذا هو الوقت المثالي لشراء منزل في دبي وأصبح الحلم هذا في متناول اليد حسب أسعار السوق الحالية
وذكر عبيدات أن بيانات نظام بروبرتي مونيتور تشير إلى أن مبيعات المنازل الجاهزة قد تخطت في الآونة الأخيرة مبيعات المنازل قيد الإنشاء في المشاريع المطلقة مؤخرا، وهذا أمر منطقي لأن العائلات المشترية لا تقدر أن تقوم بالدفع والانتظار لبناء منزل وفي نفس الوقت دفع الإيجار أيضًا، فهي تحتاج إلى منازلها الآن، وبالتالي فهي أكثر ميولاً إلى شراء المنازل الجاهزة في نفس الوقت

Population growth key to property market success

Dubai demonstrates strong growth in population compared to other economies around the world

The fact that the property industry is typically and notoriously cyclical is widely known yet quite often forgotten as viewpoints become blinkered due to current market performance, whether positive or negative. While some embrace cycles and their sometimes-associated market volatility that enables the opportunistic investor to profit from market fluctuations as they occur, other investors, those with a clear strategy and long-term plan, simply accept, foresee and plan for cycles in the industry. They are looking for longer-term sustainable growth rather than taking additional risks by trying to accumulate wealth by taking advantage of shorter-term spikes or dips. They are true managers of their property portfolios and have a much greater chance to succeed

A growing population is the fuel of any property industry, and it will be Dubai’s population growth that will enable the market to regain its equilibrium within the next three years

Investing in property has a very simple purpose: to create wealth over the long term. However, your property investment portfolio needs to be nurtured, maintained and managed to ensure its wealth-creating potential and capabilities are achieved as it rides the inevitable cycles that will occur in the industry. This, of course, is no different to managing a share portfolio, business venture or any other type of investments. Adopting a short-term vision and narrow perspective will engender reacting unreasonably to inevitable industry slowdowns which will lead to underperformance in the longer term.

The Dubai market is, having seen a period of falling values, rapidly approaching the bottom of its contraction phase, making 2018 a pivotal year for the industry. This contraction has been brought about by increased nervousness and uncertainty about global and regional geopolitical and economic events, the imposition of VAT, the distraction of alternative “new world” investments such as crypto currencies, along with the burgeoning oversupply in the highly competitive and lower margin per unit affordable segment. Developers, requiring greater sales volumes to achieve financial viability, needed to get financially creative to make their affordable offerings even more affordable and accessible for end-users and financially more attractive for investors

So, as we enter 2018, we are faced with a familiar situation. The market, despite lower than-promised delivery rates by developers, is in disequilibrium, particularly in the affordable segment. But this is no reason for excessive concern as the market is simply exhibiting the characteristics typical of its current cyclical phase. And while many of the issues that faced the world in 2017 remain, there are positive signs ahead: a growing world economy, rising oil prices and what appears to be an easing of some of the conflicts that have dogged the world in the last five years.

As for Dubai’s property market, its current predicament would be expected to last for quite some time, primarily as supply absorption rates are hindered by weak population growth, delaying the market’s emergence from the current phase. But Dubai has one string to its bow compared to a few other economies as the emirate has consistently demonstrated strong population growth, something many countries around the world have tried and failed to achieve.

A growing population is the fuel of any property industry, and it will be Dubai’s population growth that will enable the market to regain its equilibrium within the next three years, particularly as a spike in population growth is expected as the Expo creates an estimated 277,000 jobs.

It may come as a surprise to some that Dubai’s population is likely to exceed 3 million by end of 2018. This is up almost 331 per cent since the turn of this century. This amazing growth has been consistent during this period and is expected to continue at a rate of between 6.5 and 9 per cent over the next 10 years. This is fantastic news for Dubai’s property industry and the economy overall especially when other nations are facing stagnating population growth or, in the case of countries like Japan, falling populations.

The composition of the growth is also impressive as it will continue to be predominantly driven by people seeking to immediately benefit from and contribute to an economy that is expected to grow by a healthy and sustained 3.5 per cent in 2018 and beyond, as those who are seeking to progress and improve their economic well-being take advantage of the superior opportunities that Dubai will continue to offer going forward, courtesy of such major initiatives as the Expo 2020, in addition to the time-proven economic pillars of trade, finance and tourism.

So, the opportunities are there to capitalise on this population growth and resurgence in demand for property this year. The current situation is reminiscent of 2012 when the market started to emerge from the global financial crisis to foster a strong recovery peaking in 2014. The market has shown it has the capability to respond to favourable economic conditions, and as the absorption rates of properties start to build momentum with new aspirants entering the market, the positive effect on value and prices will see handsome returns being made by those who understood the market’s cyclical position and positioned themselves to capitalise on the imminent growth phase of the cycle.

Expert Eye, Gulf News, Dated: 19-04-2018 by Mohanad Alwadiya

2017 … THE YEAR IS ALMOST HALF OVER

It was an interesting first quarter in Dubai’s property market. While prices generally approximated those of the last quarter of 2016, they actually fell by around 8% from the corresponding quarter a full year prior.

Nevertheless, and maybe not too surprisingly, total transaction value jumped by 45% for a total spend of around AED 77 billion on the back of a 7% increase in transactions. Needless to say, there were some pretty big deals done in the 1st quarter.

The 1st quarter industry performance shouldn’t come as a surprise to many. The market has been approaching its cyclical bottom for some time now and it appears that, barring unforeseen events, the decline in property values experienced last year has just about run its course.

So, what does the rest of the year hold? Well, I wouldn’t count on a rapid and sudden turnaround in property values. We are likely to do a bit of bottom-dwelling for a couple of quarters yet.

The headwinds that beset the property market may have lost some of their velocity, but they are still strong enough to make any sudden upturn in values very unlikely.

Nevertheless, the market is offering the best value for some time and will continue to do so for at least the next couple of quarters … but I wouldn’t wait too long.

Affordability has been key to keeping the market bubbling along, and a slew of affordable properties have been launched over the past 2 years and there will be more launched in 2017. First home buyers have never had it so good in Dubai and affordability, or a lack thereof, as a reason to continue to rent is now more of an excuse to justify either procrastination or excessive conservatism.

The strengthening AED has been a headwind, no doubt, particularly where those investors purchasing with the pound, euro and yen are concerned. However, for those who have purchased recently or plan to do so imminently, the value of your property will be increasing as the US dollar continues to strengthen in 2017.

The US Federal reserve remains committed to normalizing interest rates in 2017 which is good news for investors who are holding assets denominated in or pegged to the value of the US dollar, while the angst associated with Brexit is only just beginning. Although interest rates will be increasing going forward, they will remain at very affordable levels for quite some time, making financing through mortgages still very attractive.

And the economic environment will improve from this time forward. Put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated annual average of 5% for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo. The Expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that, by and large, don’t currently exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to bubble around the USD45 to USD50 per barrel mark. Despite this obvious crimp on revenues, the governments Infrastructural spending continues unabated with the total budget outlay of Dh48.7 billion for 2017 being marginally up from Dh48.55 billion allocated to 2016. Looking at the 5-year budget plan of Dh248 billion, the average annual spending of Dh49.6 billion is higher by 6.5 per cent than Dh46.6 billion spent during 2014 to 2016 inclusive. This is significant as it demonstrates an unwavering commitment to economic and societal development with the investments in development initiatives being supported by revenues to be generated a newly introduced VAT in January 2018.

And despite global nervousness and uncertainty emanating from Brexit, terrorist threats, North Korean recalcitrance and virtually everything under the Trump administration, the global traveler is continuing explore the globe. Dubai’s economy continues to be driven by fundamentals such as tourism and trade and a slew of new projects to grow these important revenue generating economic segments.  Dubai welcomed almost 15 million overnight visitors in 2016 representing a 12% increase over 2015 to continue a trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010. 2017 is expected to see the trend continue.

While it appears that the market may have been overburdened with a glut of new launches raising the prospect of an oversupply, the structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the 2020 expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall. Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks.

I stated earlier in the year that 2017 will be remembered as a year of the astute investor. Those that can recognize the headwinds and understand that every headwind eventually dies out, will do very well over the coming 7 years by investing in 2017.

 

PROFESSIONALIZING THE REAL ESTATE PRACTICE

By Mohanad Alwadiya
CEO, Harbor Real Estate
Senior Advisor & Instructor, Dubai Real Estate Institute
Published by: Property Time Magzine

During the years marking the last global economic recession, reports on fraudulent business practices and shady dealings in real estate became quite rampant, and people (investors and end-users) realized that those who fail to practice due diligence have nothing to gain in a relatively new and still-emerging albeit rapidly growing property market.

Now, even as the UAE economy as a whole continues to lag from its earlier predicted level of activity, the real estate industry, in spite of the industry-wide slowdown, continues to earn its share of winners and non-gainers in terms of current industry practice.

Some individuals still manage to pose as agents or real estate representatives, produce fake documents, and get away with the money virtually scot-free. And while the government has put in place strict protocols whether it be in professionalizing industry practices or instituting new policies and regulations to guard the best interests of the market, there are still a few unscrupulous individuals who manage to prey on buyers, even tenants.

The term “business ethics” is not something alien or new to us, but some people with careers outside of the real estate realm may view the term with a heavily critical eye, with some perhaps even joking about the incompatible nature of the words “business” and “ethics.”

But we all know that in real estate, a number of professions emerge including, but not limited to: commercial or residential brokerage, appraisal/valuation, property management, real estate counselling, etc. That being said, for a job to be considered a bona fide profession, it would require some commitment to a certain standard of conduct that the general public expects from the practitioner. This is where the real estate code of ethics comes in.

However, some might say: but anyone can become a realtor, so how does this seemingly “open” industry professionalize current practice and regulate the activities of real estate practitioners? What rules or structures are in place to prevent any form of abuse and/or malpractice in an industry where sometimes morally contradictory relationships or grey areas exist such as in the case of open market listings where one seller lists with various agents, and the big question is where would the realtor’s loyalty be – with the seller or the buyer? Or in the case of valuation assignments where the client may indirectly or even expressly makes known to the appraiser the outcome they are expecting.

Another dilemma confronting realtors is their reliance on commission-based remuneration whereby agents’ dependence on said commission may run counter to the best interests of the client. While a good commission structure would evidently motivate realtors to give their best efforts in order to successfully convert a lead and close a deal, the question of whether or not conditions set are for or against the best interests of their client remains – with yes being the answer in some cases, and at other times not so especially in cases of self-dealing in real estate.

Aside from By-law No. 85 “Regulating the Real Estate Brokers Register in the Emirate of Dubai” which expressly states the legal mandate governing the real estate practice, the Real Estate Regulatory Agency (RERA) and the Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI) established a mandatory certification program for new and experienced agents who wish to work in a real estate brokerage in Dubai. The DREI also organizes license renewal courses and exams along with a very rich variety of career development programs intended to help elevate the standards of professionalism and effectiveness of brokers in Dubai.

All realtors are, therefore, expected to abide by local laws pertaining to the real estate practice as well as to government regulations that are periodically introduced and, at times, go through a series of revisions or reforms in order to address new issues or problems that crop up every once in a while.

But even in the face of such regulation, real estate firms must also take it upon themselves to continuously educate and empower their agents to make the best decisions in order to maintain individual and corporate integrity, professionalism and, ultimately, success in the real estate business.

Investing in training, whether in-house or otherwise, definitely pays a huge dividend. Extensive and tailor-made training programs should include education on the industry and pertinent rules/regulations (especially on current or new legislation), soft skills and specialized training courses that help employees attain a level of mastery in all the macro and micro aspects of their profession.

The ongoing development of the industry’s regulatory framework and implementation of laws and regulations to safeguard both consumer and investor interests, the overall industry and the economy at large from rampant and irresponsible speculative, predatory or unethical practices, all reveal a mature and balanced approach to shaping an industry which exhibits sustainable growth over the long term.

Taken altogether, the laws of the land serve as the primary push for realtors to act in a way that upholds and reflects the greater good while constant education through training, workshops, seminars and the like (whether mandatory or voluntary) help real estate practitioners internalize the values that must inherently pervade the system for the industry to thrive and continue to serve as one of the primary sectors supporting the UAE economy.

The Real Estate Regulatory Agency (RERA) and the Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI) have set a mandatory certification program for new and experienced agents who wish to work in a real estate brokerage in Dubai. The Dubai Real Estate Institute also organizes license renewal courses and exams along with a very rich variety of career development programs designed to help elevate the standards of professionalism and effectiveness of brokers in Dubai.
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ستون مشروعاً عقارياً في دبي بـ 127 مليار درهم خلال 9 أشهر

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يوسف العربي (دبي) أطلقت شركات التطوير العقارية نحو 60 مشروعاً في دبي، تناهز تكلفتها الإجمالية 127 مليار درهم، خلال الأشهر التسعة الأولى من العام الحالي، تنوعت بين السكني والفندقي والمكتبي والتجزئة، وفق رصد أجرته «الاتحاد». وتصدرت «إعمار» و«وصل» و«دبي وورلد سنترال»، و«نخيل» و«مجموعة دبي للعقارات» و«مركز دبي للسلع المتعددة» الشركات شبه الحكومية على صعيد إطلاق المشروعات الجديدة، فيما نشطت شركات أخرى من القطاع الخاص على هذا الصعيد، وهي «داماك» و«بالما» و«آر بي جلوبال» و«ماج» وتنوعت المشروعات التي تم الكشف عنها خلال الفترة الممتدة من بداية شهر يناير حتى نهاية شهر سبتمبر الماضي، بين مشروعات الفنادق والإسكان الفاخر والمتوسط، بالإضافة إلى مشاريع التجزئة والمكاتب. وتميزت المشروعات التي تم إطلاقها خلال الفترة المشار إليها بأسعارها التنافسية، وقدرتها على إضفاء قيمة مضافة ولمسات ابتكارية لتعزيز جاذبيتها للمستثمرين الذين باتوا أكثر حرصاً على انتقاء مشترياتهم العقارية بعناية فائقة. وتنوعت المميزات التنافسية التي يعرضها كل مشروع ابتداءً من التصميم المعماري العالمي، وصولاً إلى الإطلالات المتميزة على ملاعب الجولف، فضلاً عن إضافة المرافق التعليمية، والترفيهية، والصحية، للتجمعات السكنية.عرض متوازن وقال زياد الشعار، المدير التنفيذي والعضو المنتدب لشركة «داماك العقارية» لـ «الاتحاد»: «إن إطلاق المشروعات الجديدة بمثابة مؤشر مهم على وجود الطلب في السوق المحلية، حيث تقوم شركات التطوير بإطلاق هذه المشروعات، وفق دراسات دقيقة ترصد مستويات الطلب ونوعيته». وأضاف أن المشروعات التي تم إطلاقها منذ مطلع العام الحالي لن تتسبب في إغراق السوق العقارية، حيت لا تتجاوز في مجملها نحو 15% من حجم السوق العقارية، على عكس المشروعات العقارية التي تم إطلاقها قبيل الأزمة المالية العالمية التي بدأت في عام 2008، والتي شكلت نحو 400% من حجم القطاع العقاري. ونوه الشعار بأن السوق العقاري في دبي لا يزال يحتفظ بمقومات توليد الطلب الحقيقي على العقارات نتيجة البيئة الاستثمارية والمعيشية التي نجحت الدولة في توفيرهما للمستثمرين العقاريين. ولفت إلى أن السوق العقاري يتميز أيضاً بارتفاع متوسط العائد على الاستثمار العقاري بلغ مقارنة ببقية الأسواق العالمية، حيث بلغ نحو 8% خلال النصف الأول من العام الحالي، ما يجعل المدينة واحدة من أبرز وجهات الاستثمار في العالم، إذ لا تقدم أسواق كبرى، مثل لندن ونيويورك وسنغافورة، مثل هذه العوائد. زيادة استثمارات الأفراد ومن جانبه، قال المستشار العقاري إسماعيل الحمادي، المؤسس والمدير التنفيذي لشركة الرواد: «إن التقارير الرسمية الصادرة عن دائرة الأراضي والأملاك في دبي تؤكد زيادة استثمارات الأفراد لا سيما من المواطنين في القطاع العقاري، بعد وصول سعر الوحدات لمستويات تنافسية لم تكن متاحة من قبل». وأكد الحمادي، أنه على الرغم من انخفاض أسعار العقارات السكنية بنسبة تخطت ال 3% في الربع الثاني من العام الحالي، فإن المبيعات العقارية للشركات الرئيسة في الإمارة لا تزال تشهد نمواً كبيراً مطرداً، استناداً للإفصاحات المدققة لهذه الشركات للنصف الأول. وبلغت قيمة مبيعات شركة «إعمار العقارية» خلال الأشهر الستة الأولى من العام الحالي 6,12 مليار درهم، كما حصلت داماك نحو 3,67 مليار درهم خلال الفترة نفسها، بعد أن سلّمت 1511 وحدة خلال الأشهر الستة الأولى من العام الحالي، كما أعلنت الشركة عن اعتزامها تسليم عدد مماثل خلال النصف الثاني. وأكد الحمادي، أن تزايد وتيرة البناء والإنشاءات وطرح المشروعات من قبل الشركات العقارية الرئيسة يؤشر على نمو حقيقي على أرض الواقع في الطلب الحقيقي من قبل المستخدم النهائي. النضج العقاري ومن جهته، أكد الخبير العقاري والمحاضر بكلية دبي العقارية مهند الوادية، أن السوق العقاري في الإمارات بلغ مرحلة النضج العقاري بعد الطفرات المتتالية التي شهدتها التداولات العقارية عقب فوز الإمارة باستضافة معرض إكسبو 2020. وأضاف الوادية أن مواصلة الشركات لإطلاق المشروعات العقارية ينم عن ثقة كبيرة من قبل المستثمرين بأداء السوق العقارية ومستقبله، في ظل النجاحات التي يحققها الاقتصاد الوطني ونجاحه في تحقيق التنوع. وأشار الوادية إلى أن الإمارات باتت الملاذ الأمن للاستثمارات وسط هذه المنطقة المضطربة من العالم، حيث نجحت تصدر الوجهات السياحية والاستثمارية والترفيهية في المنطقة، وهي العوامل التي تنعكس بدورها على أداء القطاع العقاري على المديين البعيد والمتوسط ولفت إلى وجود مؤشرات إيجابية عدة في الوقت الراهن، منها نمو سوق الرهن العقاري على نحو غير مسبوق، وهو السوق الذي يعتمد بشكل رئيس على المستخدمين النهائيين للوحدات العقارية، كما أن الشركات العقارية أصبحت أكثر حرصاً على طرح مشروعات عقارية تتناسب مع طبيعة الطلب العقاري بالسوق المحلية. مشروعات جديدة ووفق الرصد الذي أجرته «الاتحاد» قامت شركة إعمار العقارية منفردة بإطلاق 10 مشروعات، ضمت أكثر من 3000 وحدة، بقيمة إجمالية تقدر بنحو 8 مليارات درهم منذ مطلع العام الحالي وحتى نهاية سبتمبر من العام ذاته. وضمت قائمة المشروعات التي أطلقتها شركة إعمار العقارية خلال العام الحالي مشروع «داون تاون فيوز» الذي يضم 424 وحدة، و»فورتي» الذي يضم 505 وحدة، و»فيرواي» الذي يضم 280 وحدة، و»مبيل» الذي يضم 646 وحدة. كما أطلقت شركة إعمار مشروع «كريك سايد ريزيدنس ساوز- تي 2» الذي يضم 149 وحدة، ومشروع «تي ثري» (101 وحدة)، و»دبي كريك ريزيدنس بوديوم» (24 وحدة)، بالإضافة إلى مشروعي «أكاسيا بارك هايتس» و»أزاليا» اللذين يضمان 477، و108 وحدات على التوالي. وأطلقت شركة إعمار مشروع «كريك سايد 18» السكني الذي يقع ضمن مشروع «خور دبي»، وقامت الشركة بطرح وحدات من المبنى «A» بمشروع «كريك سايد 18»، فيما تم إرجاء طرح المبني الثاني بالمشروع إلى مراحل لاحقة، وفق أوضاع السوق ومستويات الطلب الحقيقي على العقارات السكنية في السوق المحلية. توجهات الإمارة ومن جانبها أطلقت مجموعة «وصل لإدارة الأصول التابعة لمؤسسة دبي العقارية» أربعة مشروعات بقيمة 40 مليار درهم، حيث أكدت الشركة أن باقة المشروعات الجديدة التي تنفذها مؤسسة دبي العقارية تحت مظلة مجموعة «وصل» تتناغم بقوة مع توجهات الإمارة، انطلاقاً من مسؤولياتها في تطوير وتحديث القطاع العقاري في إمارة دبي، وتوفير الوحدات السكنية والسياحية والتجارية التي تلبي حاجة دبي. وتشمل المشروعات «وصل بارك 1»، الذي ينفذ بالقرب من حديقة زعبيل الخضراء، ليكون جزيرة حضرية في قلب مدينة دبي، أما المشروع الثاني فهو «برج وصل» في شارع الشيخ زايد، في حين سيكون المشروع الثالث، وهو «بوابة وصل»، أحد المشاريع المبتكرة. ويقع المشروع الرابع في منطقة ند الحمر مقابل شارع الشيخ محمد بن زايد، ويطلق عليه حدائق ند الحمر، ويضم أكثر من 115 قطعة أرض متعددة الاستخدامات، تخضع لقوانين التملك الحر في الإمارة، وتمتد على مساحة 6 ملايين قدم مربعة. دبي الجنوب ومن ناحيتها أطلقت دبي الجنوب مشروع «القرى» الذي يقع بالقرب من مطار آل مكتوم، ومنطقة إكسبو 2020، بتكلفة إجمالية تصل إلى 25 مليار درهم. ويتضمن المخطط الرئيس للمشروع ما بين 3 إلى 5 قرى، تضم أكثر من 20 ألف وحدة سكنية على مساحة 5 كيلو مترات مربع، ومن المقرر طرح المشروع بنظام التملك الحر، مع إتاحة خيار التأجير الذي ينتهي بالتمليك، وذلك لتسهيل عمليات التمويل أمام المشترين. جبل علي جاردنز وتقدر القيمة الاستثمارية لخمسة مشروعات جديدة، طرحتها شركة نخيل العقارية خلال العام الحالي، بأكثر من 20 مليار درهم، حيث تم إطلاق مشروع «جبل علي جاردنز» الذي يضم 42 مبنى، ونحو 10 آلاف وحدة سكنية، تستوعب 40 ألف شخص في مجتمع سكني جديد، بتكلفة استثمارية تزيد على 15 مليار درهم. وسيحتوي المشروع على أكثر من 1,1 مليون قدم مربعة من الحدائق الخضراء ذات المناظر الطبيعية، والتي تغطي تقريباً خُمس مساحة الموقع، إضافة إلى مسار للجري بطول 2 كيلومتر، ومسابح، وملاعب رياضية لكرة القدم، والتنس، وكرة السلة. وكشفت شركة «نخيل» عن اعتزامها تحويل منطقة جذع «نخلة جميرا» بالكامل إلى وجهة للمشي والتنزه على الشاطئ والحديقة ومجمع لتجارة التجزئة والمقاهي، وذلك في إطار مشروع جديد باسم «ذا بالم بروميناد». وأعلنت «نخيل» العقارية، خلال العام الحالي، عن تعيين شركة «فان أورد» مقاولاً لأعمال الهندسة البحرية، لتجهيز 23,5 كيلومتر من السواحل وكواسر أمواج في مشروع «جزر ديرة»، الواجهة البحرية الجديدة لدبي الممتدة على مساحة 15,3 كيلومتر مربع، في صفقة بلغت 387 مليون درهم. وأطلقت الشركة خلال العام الحالي أيضاً عمليات تأجير المحال التجارية ومنافذ بيع الأغذية والمكاتب في مشروع «غولدن مايل»، ضمن مشروع «النخلة جميرا» في دبي كجزء من محفظة توسعها السريع في قطاع عمليات التجزئة، ويضم المشروع 70 منفذاً، منها ما هو مخصص للمطاعم، ومنها ما هو مخصص لمحال السوبر ماركت، فضلاً عن النادي الصحي والمركز الطبي. ومن جانبه، كشف مركز دبي للسلع المتعددة، عن مشروع «منطقة برج 2020» التي تضيف 6 أبراج جديدة إلي منطقة «أبراج بحيرات جميرا»، إضافة على برج 2020 د الذي سيكون من أطول الأبراج التجارية. وأفاد المركز بأن تصميم المشروع جاء ليكون القلب التجاري لبوابة دبي الجنوبية، ومركز أعمال الشركات بمختلف أنواعها، ويتضمن أبراجاً فائقة التطور، ضمن منطقة حضرية متعددة الاستخدامات، توفر بيئة مثالية للعيش والعمل. وتبلغ المساحة المبنية للمشروع أكثر من مليون متر مربع، أي ما يعادل تقريباً ثلث مساحة منطقة «أبراج بحيرات جميرا»، ونحو ضعف مساحة «مركز روكفيلر» في نيويورك، إضافة إلى المساحات التجارية الممتازة، يوفر المشروع ما يزيد على 100 ألف متر مربع من مساحات التجزئة التي ستلبي احتياجات سوق غير مُشبعة، تشمل المنطقة الحرة التابعة لمركز دبي للسلع المتعددة، و«أبراج بحيرات جميرا»، والمناطق المحيطة، وتقدر القيمة الاستثمارية المبدئية للمشروع 4 مليارات درهم. وأطلقت «مجموعة دبي للعقارات»، مشروعي «وان جي بي آر» ومشروع سكني آخر. ومن ناحيتها كشف شركة ميدان خلال العام الحالي عن مشروع « ميدان وان» الذي يغطي هذا المشروع مساحة تبلغ نحو ثلاثة ملايين ونصف مليون متر مربع، وأعلى مطعم على ارتفاع 675 مترًا، وأكبر نافورة راقصة علوها 420 مترًا، وأطول منحدر للتزلج على الجليد طوله 1,2 كيلومتر وارتفاعه 180 مترًا، إلى جانب متنزه «كريستال لاغون» المائي، الذي يسترخي فيه الزوار. ويضم أيضًا مركزاً تجارياً هو «ميدان وان مول»، الذي يتألف من 652 متجرًا، بقدرة استيعاب تصل إلى 78,300 شخص، ويتضمن مرافق رياضية، تمتد على مساحة 25 ألف قدم مربعة، وتتسع ل8 آلاف شخص. ويتميز «ميدان ون مول» بسقف قابل للطي، طوله 150 مترًا وعرضه 80 مترًا، يتم فتحه في الأشهر المعتدلة، وبجانبها صالة تزلج مغلقة متعددة الأغراض، طولها 1,5 كيلومتر تقريبًا، وهي بالتالي أطول صالة تزلج في العالم، وتبلغ قيمة المشروع نحو 8,6 مليارات دولار، ومن المتوقع الانتهاء من أعماله في عام 2020. شركات القطاع الخاص حاضرة بقوة في المشهد العقاري دبي (الاتحاد) نشطت شركات التطوير العقاري من القطاع الخاص دبي في إطلاق المشروعات العقارية حيث قامت شركة «داماك العقارية» منفردة بطرح 8 مشروعات بقيمة تقدر بنحو 6 مليارات درهم. وأطلقت شركة داماك العقارية، أربعة أبراج فاخرة تضم ما يزيد على 700 وحدة سكنية في مشروع «فيريديس». وتقع الأبراج الأربعة في أحضان الطبيعة الخضراء داخل مشروع «أكويا أوكسجين». وقامت الشركة بإطلاق «باراماونت ريزيدنسز» في مشروع «باراماونت تاور هوتيل آند ريزيدنسز»، الذي يتألف من فندق فاخر يضم 826 وحدة سكنية بالإضافة إلى وحدات سكنية فندقية. كما أطلقت داماك العقارية، أولى فللها الفندقية ضمن مجتمع أكويا أكسجين المتميز في دبي وتتراوح الفلل بين ثلاث وست غرف نوم وتقع الفيلات ضمن مجمع مغلق وسط 55 مليون قدم مربعة من المساحات الخضراء. وفي مجال التجزئة كشفت الشركة عن مشروع اسم «فيستا لوكس»، ويمتد على مساحة مليون قدمٍ مربعة، وسيكون بمثابة مركز الترفيه الأساسي ووجهة التسوق لمشروع «أكويا أوكسجين». وخلال العام 2015 أطلقت داماك العقارية، «برج ميرانو» السكني المستوحى من التصاميم الإيطالية الفاخرة. وأطلقت داماك، أول منازل حصرية ومحدودة العدد في العالم بلمسات «بوجاتي» وستحتل المجموعة الحصرية والمحدودة من الفلل التي أُطلق عليها اسم «إيتوري 971 بلمسات بوجاتي»، موقعاً مميزاً ضمن المساحات الخضراء لمشروع «أكويا أوكسجين». من جانبها، أطلقت شركة «ديار للتطوير»، مبيعات الوحدات السكنية في مشروع «أفنان ديستركت» التابعة لمشروع مجمع «ميدتاون» في المنطقة العالمية للإنتاج الإعلامي، والذي تتراوح تكلفته بين 2,5 إلى 3 مليارات درهم. وأعلنت «آر بي جلوبال» عن اعتزامها ضخ استثمارات تقدر بنحو أكثر من 5,5 مليار في مشروعين عقاريين بدبي أولهما برج «آر بي هايتس» السكني بقيمة 1,5 مليار درهم بوسط مدينة دبي ويتكون من 50 طابقاً ويضم 268 وحدة سكنية فيما يتألف المشروع الثاني الذي تبلغ كلفته 4 مليارات من مبنى «آر بي ون». ويقع المشروع الثاني الذي تبلغ كلفته 4 مليارات درهم وهو متعدد الاستخدامات. وأعلنت شركة «بالما القابضة» عن إطلاق مشروعين عقاريين جديدين بقيمة 3,7 مليار درهم خلال العام الحالي، المشروع الأول الكائن على نخلة جميرا «سيرينيا ريزيدنسيز» عبارة عن مشروع سكني فاخر على شاطئ البحر، وصمم ليكون الأكثر تميزاً في دبي. أما المشروع الثاني للشركة، عبارة عن مشروع سكني فاخر، وسيضيف وجهة فاخرة أخرى إلى المواقع المتميزة في دبي. وأعلنت «ماج 5 للتطوير العقاري» وهي شركة عقارية تم تأسيسها من خلال علاقة شراكة بين «ماج للتطوير العقاري»، و«إم بي إم القابضة» عن إطلاق مشروع سكني جديد متكامل، وبأسعار معقولة، تحت اسم «ماج 5 بوليفارد» في منطقة «دبي وورلد سنترال»، حيث تم وضع خطة دفع ميسّرة لخمس سنوات بفائدة 0 %، وسيبدأ التسليم 2018. ويتمتع المشروع الجديد البالغة كلفة إنشائه 700 مليون درهم بموقع استراتيجي داخل المنطقة السكنية القريبة من «دبي وورلد سنترال»، وسيضم أكثر من 1000 وحدة سكنية.

Gulf News Freehold – Expert Eye

mohanad_professional

Why invest in real estate

before 2016?

The opportunities that have emerged so far will be too good to pass up

There have been a number of reports recently estimating the effect of the correction on Dubai’s real estate market. The most recent forecast shows a reduction of anywhere between 10% and 20% by the end of 2015.

The opportunities that have emerged so far in 2015 and will continue to emerge as the year progresses will be too good to pass up. Why is this, you ask? Oil prices are not expected to go anywhere soon. The decline of the Russian ruble has effectively made offshore investing too expensive. There is a growing oversupply, and the inevitable interest rate increases on the US dollar and its dirham cousin will further hamper liquidity. While these considerations are valid and worth considering, we need to put our positive hat on for a while.

Put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5% annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the Expo 2020. The event alone is expected to drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that currently do not exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4 million people by 2020; a 7% annual increase from today’s 2.25 million.

While the price of oil is a big issue for the region’s economies, the effect of the decline in oil prices is not as drastic as some may think. The Dubai economy is being driven by fundamentals such as tourism and trade, and a slew of projects to grow these important revenue-generating economic segments. Dubai has attracted almost 12 million visitors in 2014, continuing a growth trend of approximately 9% per annum since 2010.

And those visitor numbers will seem paltry once the Expo kicks off. Hosting the event will provide additional impetus for the industry to enjoy continued growth and the predictable surge in demand for accommodation and commercial space of all types.

We all know that the ongoing speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s intention to raise interest rates is making many people nervous. However, we can be sure that interest rates in the US will eventually rise and the dirham will continue to get stronger. To invest in a market that is undergoing a 10% to 20% correction in a currency that is certain to appreciate only makes sense, especially when finance is still cheap and will remain so for quite some time to come.

While on the topic of certainty, there is no doubt that a stabilized real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next five to seven years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate expected rapid population growth associated with the Expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall.

Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. For Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations.

Talking of alternatives, there is an array of asset choice which has not been seen for some time. The availability of off-plan purchases with highly lucrative payment plans is unprecedented. There are investment opportunities in every segment of the market supported by the most affordable payment plans.

This year will be remembered as a year of the astute investor. Don’t miss out.

Right time to grow your portfolio

Even though some buyers continue to maintain a ‘wait and see’ approach as property prices continue to soften, if you have invested in Dubai property, especially in key growth areas, then hold on to your portfolio. In fact, we would advise you to, if possible, add to your portfolio.

Dubai’s economy is still doing very well although the IMF forecast for UAE economic growth this year is down to 3 per cent compared to last year’s 4.6 per cent, which is quite understandable considering the after-effects of the recent oil price slump on economy. Having gradually weaned the country away from overdependence on oil, the UAE remains in a good fiscal position as it proceeds with economic diversification.

The UAE economy is being driven by tourism and trade, and a slew of successful new projects that will complement these important revenue-generating economic segments which continue to be a primary feature of Dubai’s growth outlook. In 2014, Dubai welcomed over 12 million visitors, continuing a growth trend of approximately 9 percent per annum since 2010, a statistic which is the envy of many nations.

The ‘soft landing’ of the UAE economy is by no means bad news as it is simply indicative of more gradual sustainable growth overall which, in turn, is supported by the following factors:

The market is in a healthy state of revaluation and consolidation, not recession. The reduction in growth rates is necessary to ensure the type of sustainable, profitable growth that long-term investors seek becomes a recognized characteristic of the Dubai market. The market has demonstrated its maturity and resilience by recovering post-global financial crisis and is now adjusting to more sustainable value appreciation levels.

Strong demand for property. When you are investing in real estate, you are actually investing in the economy, and the effect of the 2020 Expo on the UAE economy cannot be underrated in terms of generating demand for real estate assets. Hosting the World Expo will provide additional impetus for the industry to enjoy continued growth, and the predictable surge in demand for accommodation and commercial space of all types, from labor camps to offices to warehouses to apartments to executive villas, is sure to have a significant effect on property values.

Investor appetite and confidence remain for off-plan and under-construction projects especially for those launched by reputable developers. Outside of tier one developer-led schemes, there has been strong performance in recent launches outside of prime locations and emerging areas.

The low mortgage rates of today are unprecedented and, notwithstanding possible interest rate rises in the US later this year as the dollar continues to strengthen, will still be affordable in the ensuing five years. We should remember that affordable finance and demand for real estate assets are inseparable.

The market is approaching maturity. The on-going development of the industry’s regulatory framework and the implementation of laws to safeguard both consumer and investor interests, and the overall industry and economy at large from rampant and irresponsible speculative, predatory or unethical practices, reveal a mature and balanced approach to shaping an industry which will exhibit sustainable growth over the long term.

If it’s superior yield with minimal capital outlay that you are after, Dubai real estate is still hard to beat unlike older established cities like Hong Kong and Singapore which currently suffer from high costs of housing, especially the former where only 50 percent of residents own their homes. Affordable properties have all benefitted from Dubai’s recovering economy. Investors in these areas can reasonably expect rental returns of at least 7 percent per annum on top of annual capital appreciation. Given the relatively low cost of entry, even with the overall economic slowdown predicted to continue well into the coming year, buyers in growth areas such as Dubai land will see greater financial rewards for their astuteness and patience in due course.

There is definitely a shortage of affordable housing in Dubai. The number of developments that will be supplying housing affordable to the middle and lower income segments is definitely on the increase, more so in the run up to the 2020 World Expo. Historically, the established developments that were most associated with filling the affordable housing gap were international City, Discovery Gardens and, to a lesser extent, MotorCity. But there have been more recent additions that have provided realistic alternatives to these older developments, and several more to come.

Still, as both buyers and sellers are sticking to their negotiating positions with more determination and a greater propensity to walk away from the negotiating table if not satisfied, the real estate cycle will continue on its course. Prices may continue to soften, but what is more important is that the market does not go down on a steep fall, and keeps to its current sustainable path.

Why it is a good time to buy property in Dubai

mohanad_professional

The market has been cooling for around a year now,

but is expected to pick up again in 2016

I receive so many questions regarding the current state of the market and whether now would be a good time to buy. My answer is invariably yes, especially as the market has become attractive with opportunities available and advantages to be gained from purchasing now.

The market has been cooling for around a year now, but is expected to pick up again in 2016 as the next five years are expected to see strong economic growth in Dubai. Picking the exact timing is always difficult but it is better to be early rather than late and starting early will be a prime determinant of your success.

I recommend you start your property search immediately as a property investment requires the same approach and set of considerations regardless of the state of the market and proper due diligence can take time. You are embarking on a major purchase which has the potential to affect your life in either an extremely positive or negative way. So you need to make a timely decision, not a hasty one.

Be critical in determining what you can afford. If you have-the cash, I suggest you pay for your new purchase outright. However, don’t be afraid to take out a mortgage… just be sure you fully understand what mortgage ‘repayments are going to do to lifestyle and whether you are prepared to make some sacrifices to own your own property. Make sure that you consider the many and varied easy payment plans that are currently on offer as many of these plans will save you considerable amounts of money.

Think carefully about location, surrounding infrastructure, construction quality and developer reputation and building amenities. Properties which are close to the beach, with a sea view, a golf course view or part of an iconic development such as Downtown usually provide good returns. If you have close access to the Metro, even better.

When buying an apartment, you also need to consider the efficacy of the owners’ association, costs associated with service charges and the quality of maintenance services as these will impact the long-term value of your investment. Finally, be purposeful, persistent, patient and pragmatic in your approach and you are well on the way to making a sound decision.

Advice for hassle-free ownership

mohanad_propertyweekly

Mohanad Alwadiya is Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate and advisory board member and instructor at Dubai Real Estate Institute, the official training and certification arm of the Dubai Land Department.

A long-term outlook is important for property owners to maximise their investments

It seems that with all the new projects that have been announced over the past two years, Dubai’s real estate market is about to enter a new period of oversupply. What are your thoughts on this?

There is no doubt that developers have recommenced construction on many projects that were stalled during the recession, or launched new projects on the back of the market’s recent resurgence. Given the frequency of the headlines announcing new projects and the size of the developments being launched, it is easy to be concerned that an oversupply scenario may eventuate.

However, calculating optimal supply levels, particularly when emerging from a recessionary period, is challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for real estate assets, which will emanate from population growth. In Dubai’s case, this will largely be driven by overall economic growth going forward. In addition, one needs to comprehend a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are completed and are released on to the market.

Given that Dubai’s economy is expected to grow at an estimated 5 per cent annually for the remainder of the decade and initiatives such as the World Expo 2020 are expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs, the demand for housing and commercial facilities is expected to grow significantly. Much of the city’s planning estimates the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4 million by 2020, or a 7 per cent annual increase from the current population of 2.25 million.

We take a minimum five-year view when trying to understand supply and demand. Taking into account the nature of the market’s resurgence, strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives, and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our five-year forecast period.

I own an apartment that is leased. The lease will expire in three months and I wish to refurbish the apartment and use it personally once the refurbishment is complete. Can you advise on any legal issues I might need to consider?

You need to consider the rights of the tenant. Law No. 33, Article 25 (2) provides protection to the tenant by stipulating the circumstances under which a tenant can be evicted. If the landlord wishes to demolish the property or conduct construction that makes it impossible for the tenant to use the property, the landlord has grounds for eviction. This would appear to apply in your case. However, if challenged, you will need to provide proof of your intentions, such as plans, contractor agreements, etc.

A landlord who wants to use the property himself or give it to next of kin also has the right to evict a tenant. He will have to prove that he does not have access to an alternative property.

The landlord must give at least 12 months’ notice of eviction and provide the reasons and necessary documentation supporting it.

Therefore, I recommend you advise the tenant of your intentions in advance of the upcoming lease renewal as he or she could choose not to renew and vacate the apartment. If this is not the tenant’s preferred course of action, at least you have abided by the law.

I just had a problem tenant vacate my apartment. How can I ensure I don’t get another troublesome one?

Bad tenants can make your life very miserable. There have been many reports regarding tenant rights but I feel the rights of landlords should also be recognized as much.

There are some basic steps you should take. Set a meeting to get to know the potential tenant better, including his or her lifestyle and employment stability. Try to figure out his or her plans for the future as such details can often give you an insight into the type of people you are dealing with. This will help you instinctively understand a person’s character. Trust your instincts.

Request references or contact details from previous landlords to identify any past issues with regard to the care of rental property or missed rental payments.

Obtain a letter from the employer stating the tenant’s salary and a copy of a bank statement. You should check for regular salary payments into the account, which should correspond with the employer’s salary statement and also determine whether there is enough to cover rent.

Obtain a copy of the tenant’s passport and visa. Check all details to ensure the person you are talking to is the actual lessee.

Use the standard contract form provided by the Real Estate Regulatory Agency. Once signed by all parties, it should be registered in the Ejari system, and you should ensure all cheques are signed by the party to the contract.

Finally, engage a property management company to take care of all the above (and more) for you. You will sleep a lot easier and stand a greater chance of realizing your investment’s potential.

I am new to Dubai, having started a new job six months ago. I am currently renting an apartment, but considering buying either an apartment or a villa for myself. What advice can you give someone new to investing in Dubai?

The first factor to consider is location as this can drive up to 90 per cent of the property value. The more established and prestigious locations such as Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina and those close to the Metro will always command a premium, while areas such as Jumeirah Lakes Towers, The Greens, Dubai Sports City, Skycourts, Queue Point, Discovery Gardens and International City offer affordability and value for money. A lot depends on your budget and lifestyle.

Quality of product and maintenance services as well as the extent of completion and quality of infrastructure surrounding your intended home are important, along with considerations such as an owners association and its effectiveness.

With regard to the type of property, current and future supply of various asset types need to be examined. You should consult a reputable property broker to assist you with this. For example, villas across the board have out-performed other asset types because of supply shortages. However, when looking at the inventory pipeline, this may not be the case in the future with more affordable property likely to be in higher demand.

Financial planning is key. It’s important to know what you can afford in terms of repayments, whether you will need a mortgage, how flexible you can be should interest rates rise and what other demands may arise on your disposable income.

Finally, get yourself a good broker. As a newcomer to the Dubai real estate scene, you will benefit from the experience and knowledge that a good broker can bring to your property ownership aspirations.

H1 2015… and where are we?

wolfofrealestate

Mohanad Alwadiya, MD of Harbor Real Estate & Instructor at
the Dubai Real Estate Institute, the Official
Training & Certification Arm of the Dubai Land Department

For the past 6 months, headlines have been making many and varied references to the Real Estate correction in Dubai. This is not surprising as yes; indeed, Dubai’s Real Estate industry is in the midst of a correction. For many, the term “correction” is viewed with suspicion and trepidation, particularly those with a more tactical, less strategic, short term point of view. For those who are taking the long term perspective, the term “correction” is viewed with anticipation as the term refers to the elimination of systemic issues and making the necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market itself.

There is no doubt that a “correction” was overdue. 2013 will long be remembered as Dubai’s comeback year as the total value of Real Estate transactions reached AED 234 Billion, a 52% increase in the prior year which was clearly unsustainable as witnessed when the correction began in 2014 when AED 218 Billion worth of real estate assets were sold, a reduction of over AED 16 Billion on the prior year. At the time of writing, just over AED 63 Billion worth of transactions had taken place during 2015 indicating that the market is well and truly into its correction phase.

The market definitely benefitted from high levels of liquidity during 2012 and 2013. Capital inflows seeking safe haven from regional conflicts flowed strongly, however, they were sure to weaken and have. Geo-political events such as the wrangling over the Ukraine and  subsequent economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West meant a rubble which was declining rapidly in value made investing in Dubai an increasingly expensive proposition for Russian investors who historically have been prevalent amongst the investing community.  In  addition,  changes  to mortgage  laws  also  dampened  the availability of capital for those investors wishing to use  leverage  to  capitalize on attractive property valuations and the  promise  of  high  and  sustainable rental  yields.  A slew of new projects being launched as a result of renewed developer optimism also placed pressure on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market-wide.  Initially, launches were made with prices for off-plan units consistent and supportive to prices for completed units. However, with each additional launch competition for the investor Dirham intensified, leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units making the risk reward equation more palatable for off-plan units versus completed units.  In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this, perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

The  number  of  new  launches has been impressive, leaving many to question  whether  over- exuberance on  behalf  of  developers  will  result  in a  significant  oversupply.  Calculating optimal supply levels, particularly when emerging from a recessionary period, is particularly challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for real estate assets which will emanate from population growth which, in Dubai’s case, will be largely driven by overall economic growth going forward. In addition, it needs to comprehend a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are completed and are released onto the market.

We at Harbor take, at minimum, a 5 year view when looking at equilibrium or imbalances in the market. When taking into account the nature of the markets resurgence, the strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that, while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our 5 year forecast period. There will be around 11,000 villas, 7,500 townhouses and 35,000 apartments delivered between now and January 2020. While this may seem a lot, remember that we are a entering period where demand for properties, particularly those which are affordable, is expected to rise significantly and, given average current occupation rates are around 80 – 85%, there is not much margin for error in terms of satisfying expected demand.

Put simply Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5%+ annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo. The Expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that, by and large, don’t currently exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

There is no doubt that a stabilized real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next 5 to 7 years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the 2020 expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall.

Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations. When taking this perspective, the correction could not have come at a better time.