Property Times

Factors that will impact the Real Estate Sector in 2017

propertytimes

Published: Propertytimes, May Edition

With the advent of globalization and the exponential rise of cross border capital flows, the number of factors that affect local economies and the industries that operate within those economies has increased dramatically in both number and complexity. Here are some that we will be considering as we advise our clients in 2017.

Oil. Despite the amount of diversification that has occurred in the Dubai economy and the small proportion of Dubai’s GDP that oil represents, the price of oil still affects liquidity levels, oil dependent economy’s performance and overall investor confidence. There is no doubt that that maintaining oil at or above the $50 / barrel for the duration of 2017 will assist in creating market stability.

Currency rates. With anywhere between 40% and 50% of investment in Dubai property coming from investors who usually deal in currencies that are not pegged to the US dollar, any strengthening of the US dollar makes it more difficult to invest in Dubai for those investors. A recent example is the devaluation of the Russian ruble which resulted in Russian investment declining significantly in Dubai’s property market. The USD is likely to strengthen in 2017 as we see the US Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates and the effect of Trumpenomics and “America First” protectionist policies begin to take effect.

Political instability. Almost omnipresent for well over a decade, the level of political instability in the world today seems unprecedented. From Middle East conflicts, Chinese actions in the South China sea, North Korean nuclear ambitions, Brexit and even significant dissatisfaction with the US election result and subsequent presidential performance, the world is a very unsettled place which leads to investor nervousness. There are no signs that political instability is going to ease any time soon.

Demand and supply. As always, economic fundamental will always play a role in any industry performance. 2017 will see a continuation of balancing of the demand / supply situation in the market as the recent pivot towards affordable properties makes up a greater proportion of deliveries and the demand generated by the rapidly approaching 2020 Global Expo accelerates.

Legal framework. The legal framework that has been developed for the property industry in Dubai has is both comprehensive and effective in protecting the rights of tenants and investors and holding developers to account. Developments will continue in 2017 further increasing the already high levels of confidence among investors with regards to their legal protection and risk minimization.

Mortgage market/ regulations. Historically, mortgages have represented no more than 30%-35% of property sales in the emirate. This ratio has now climbed to well over 45% during 2016 and, in some months, levels of 60+% were achieved. This is great news for several reasons.

First, this trend highlights both confidence of lenders and consumers, mostly owner occupiers, in the market. The second reason why this is such good news is because we are witnessing, in real time, the market adapting to legislative changes that were made in early 2014. There is no doubt that the implementation of the mortgage caps earlier in 2014 had affected the demand for many first home buyers who were relying on a mortgage to acquire their dream home

Finally, a growing number of mortgages are being undertaken for properties that are purchased in the more affordable areas of Dubai, which further demonstrates the systemic shift to affordable housing in the Dubai property market is becoming even further entrenched as a long-term characteristic.

Confidence levels/ buyer’s sentiment. Confidence levels of investors globally have been shaken by the global events of the past few years. The levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policies, geo-political turmoil and social discontent in many countries around the world has created an environment of indecision amongst investors. Nevertheless, the property industry has weathered this quite well and showed a maturity and flexibility that wasn’t evident earlier in the decade. Sure, prices have declined since 2014, but this has been more because of a much-needed market correction. While global events have had an effect, the market’s resilience has been impressive.

Performance of other investment instruments (stock markets, gold, equities, bonds). There is a global competition for a greater share of the capital pie. Capital will always follow the best risk adjusted returns and movements can be swift and of great magnitude. They can be so dramatic that some governments will restrict capital flows. For example, China recently announced new restrictions on capital flows out of the country. Observations from property industry pundits all around the globe suggest the new restrictions are already putting the brakes on what has been the biggest global real estate accumulation by any nationality in modern times. While Chinese demand will continue to benefit many markets those who had not previously established off-shore assets will find it significantly more difficult to invest beyond Chinese borders until the restrictions are raised.

Infrastructure development / government spending. The ongoing commitment to economic development and the associated infrastructural spending has been well-chronicled. The continuing preparations for the 2020 World Expo will help the local economy achieve around 3.5% GDP growth for the year which is very healthy by global standards.

Taxes and transaction costs (registration and transfer fees, commissions, NOC fees) The costs of transacting in real estate in Dubai compare well globally and no new costs or fees are expected to be introduced in 2017. Somewhat conversely, we expect the slew of offers in the market place designed to increase affordability to continue. Great news for first home buyers and investors.

Annual service charges and overall cost of ownership (utility fees, maintenance, insurance, PM costs) Similarly, the costs of owning and operating property is expected to remain stable and should not affect buyer’s decisions other than normal calculations regarding yields, cashflow and asset protection.

Property investing in 2017… many alternatives

There are many alternatives for the property investor in today’s market. Here are just a few of them and why I think each presents significant opportunities to increase my client’s wealth.

Affordable housing

The affordable housing segment in Dubai has outperformed its more luxurious alternative for some time now and continues to show lots of promise. Affordable properties will continue to be in high demand as Dubai’s population growth gains momentum during a period of expected strong economic growth leading up to the end of the decade.

Examples of affordable projects that are providing good rental returns and expected capital appreciation are the Skycourts project and the adjacent QPoint project. Apartments in Skycourts have proven to be very popular with tenants and investors alike and have historically delivered excellent capital growth with some apartment values growing by 20 to 25% % in the 24 months leading up to the correction and shedding no more than 5% reduction in values during the correction with rental premiums of at least 7% not uncommon. Purchasing an apartment at Skycourts has been made even been made more affordable with the developer offering units, some with existing and reliable tenants, with a very attractive easy payment plan. QPoint is also providing rental yields of 6% to 7% and has also showed strong resilience in losing minimal capital value during the correction.

And while the value is irrefutable, he risks associated with investing in the affordable segments of the industry as opposed to the luxury segments are much lower. Demand for this type of affordable accommodation will continue to grow as Dubai’s population swells in the run up to the Expo and the demand for well-located affordable housing increases. As Dubai grows, so will the need for affordable housing.

Hospitality

The rise of Dubai as one of the world most preferred tourist destinations is a remarkable story. Tourism and associated commercial activities are flourishing in Dubai and the focus of investment has been on new projects to grow these important revenues generating economic segments and further diversification. The launch of 2 major theme parks in 2016 will ensure Dubai attracts over 15 million visitors in 2017, continuing a growth trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010 and is well on track to attracting over 20 million visitors in 2020 with continual investments in infrastructure and attractions expected to generate 25-30 million tourists annually to the emirate by 2030.

The local market offers significant opportunity. The GCC, with a total population of just over 40 million people, has one of the youngest populations in the world. Approximately 50% of the population on the Arabian Peninsula is below 25 years of age. What a wonderful opportunity this represents for Dubai. The possibility exists for the construction of the only mega family entertainment destination in over 2,500,000 square kilometers of territory. From an economic point of view, the provision of memorable entertainment experiences for the youth and families of the region must have a multiplier effect on the economy.

Offices

All things being equal, offices in today’s market can provide an ROI significantly greater than that of residential properties. This is mainly due to lower per sq. ft. capital cost but also reflects the higher levels of risk associated with owning this type of property.

Managing tenants is also more straightforward. You will have a business-to-business relationship with your tenant and many of the emotional issues which can complicate residential leasing arrangements won’t exist. It’s easier to keep interactions professional and focused and relationships are built over time with the opportunity to attract a ‘blue chip’ tenant and are likely to rent your property for a long period and less likely to default on rental payments. In many cases, office tenants and property owner interests are aligned. The tenant wants an efficient operation which presents a favorable impression to his customers, business associates or peers and, in this way, is more likely to assist the owner maintain or even improve the property.

Establishing a true value of the investment is often easier with commercial property. Reviewing the current owners’ income statement and existing lease details will provide a good indication of the likely future cash-flows and help to establish an accurate valuation. Residential properties are often subject to more emotional pricing or developer inefficiency and cost recovery considerations.
In addition to lease rates and periods, negotiations can include such items as provision of fit-out assistance, maintenance, implementation of office and storage systems, insurance, lease to buy provisions and options … the list goes on. The variations are countless.

Labor Camps

One alternative that is not considered very often is the ubiquitous labor camp. Dubai is going through a high construction phase with a growing requirement for construction labor. Demand for this asset type has been very strong and continues to grow. Yields above 15% are not uncommon and by selecting the right tenant, longer term contracts can be negotiated. This investment is certainly worth consideration when economic activity is expected to increase or remain strong for extended periods of time.

WHY TRUMP WILL MATTER IN 2017

I read other day that Dubai developer Damac Properties has confirmed that work on its major golf-course projects including the Trump International Golf Club Dubai are on track. Good news indeed!
Regardless of what you think about Donald Trump, he has established an immediately identifiable global brand and there is no doubt that he will influence the economy of Dubai and, more specifically, the property industry here.

But I am not talking about the Donald who “dabbles” in real estate, construction, hospitality, entertainment, book and magazine publishing, media, model management, retail, financial services, board game development, food and beverages, business education, online travel, airlines, helicopter air services, beauty pageants (etc. etc.) here …

… I am talking about the next President of the United States or POTUS.

As POTUS, decisions (and Tweets for that matter) made by Donald will influence the strength of the US Dollar which just so happens to be one major issue that is likely to face Dubai’s Real Estate Industry in 2017. Already, the campaign promises, rhetoric and ubiquitous tweets have already given rise to the “Trump” effect and, combined with the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase of December 14, has already driven the USD to its highest level in almost 15 years.

What’s more, it is likely that, given the Feds intention to embark upon at least 3 interest rate hikes in 2017, the USD will remain at this elevated level for at least the first 6 months of 2017 which is likely to dampen the amount of investor capital that flows into the property market.

A strengthening US dollar, in an industry where 40% of purchases are made by investors that hail from countries whose currencies float freely, could have significant effects.

Potential investors from India, Pakistan and China will find it more expensive to invest in the emirate, just as Russian investors have over the past 3 years as the ruble devalued.

A strengthening US dollar will also make property in other markets such as the UK, Asia or Europe more attractive, essentially putting pressure on the amount of capital being invested in Dubai.
Meanwhile, it appears that the on-going saga of the Brexit implementation is likely to carry on for some time, probably leading to a continuance of a weak British pound for the foreseeable future. The local property market is likely to continue to feel the pressure of the Brexit effect.

So, what is the likelihood of a strong USD in the first half of 2017? … very likely !
But it isn’t all doom and gloom … far from it.

What happens in the latter half of 2017 is a bit more of a mystery but, already, pundits are saying that the Trump effect will not last and that his campaign promises regarding fiscal, trade and immigration policies will be very difficult to achieve.

If so, and given the Federal Reserve’s history of changing course on predicted interest rate hikes, it is not unlikely that we could see a weakening of the USD sometime on the latter half of 2017. Once we get clarity on the likelihood of this occurring, we could see confidence growing amongst investors and capital flows reverse, to the benefit of the local market.

From a macro level, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at a targeted 4%+ in 2017 and beyond. Underpinning this growth trajectory is a commitment and determination to deliver on initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo and, in 2017, we will see the countdown to 2020 and the massive infrastructural investment associated with the event markedly gather pace.

While Dubai’s reliance on oil is minimal due to its economic diversification initiatives, the recent OPEC (and others) agreement to cap oil supply resulting in in higher oil prices is, nevertheless, welcomed. This augers well for a return of the Russian investor whose ruble has been the best performing currency for the last 3 months but should also see increased capital being available to local investors.

Tourism and trade is flourishing in Dubai and the focus of spending has been on new projects to grow these important revenue generating economic segments and further diversification. The launch of 2 major theme parks in 2016 will ensure Dubai attracts over 15 million visitors in 2017, continuing a growth trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010 and is well on track to attracting over 20 million visitors in 2020.

So, I see 2017, the first year of Donald’s reign as POTUS, as being a year of two halves … first half of the year being really a continuation of the market uncertainty that has been such a characteristic of 2016, as the world comes to grips with what the new POTUS can actually achieve …

… while the latter half of 2017 to be more positive, with an increase in investor confidence and therefore investment activity, property values and first home ownership as the tangible and real effects of world events, such as the US elections and Brexit, that so surprised us in 2016, begin to become more apparent and the risks associated more assessable.

Rather sooner than later, I think!

WHY THE DUBAI WATER CANAL PROJECT IS SO IMPORTANT …

Most of us have been witnessing the considerable construction efforts that have been underway in completing the Dubai Water Canal project. With an impending completion date of 2017, the canal which will run from Business Bay into the Arabian Gulf and include four hotels. An estimated 450 restaurants, new luxury housing developments, waterfront developments and extensive public spaces, this latest addition to the ever-changing Dubai landscape is the latest stunning achievement by the emirate.

While many people will marvel at the imagination and sheer scale of the project, very few will comprehend what a wide variety of benefits such a project brings to the emirate of Dubai, especially those which relate to the Real Estate industry.

For a start, the investment in the local economy will top 2 billion dirhams. Projects of this scale are of huge benefit to the local economy and the prosperity that is generated among businesses is essential to maintaining economic vibrancy and, logically, the demand for commercial real estate as well as residential real estate for those who are involved, contracted or employed to bring the project to its conclusion.

Then, of course, is the added value that the project itself brings to the real estate that borders the actual canal itself. Property developments situated on both banks of the canal will be comprised of over 5,000 residential units in addition to over 900 hotel rooms. The addition of these properties to the city’s “balance sheet” in the form of a new upmarket residential community and tourist destination situated in such a prime location are sure to grow in value, especially as the estimated 80,000 square meters of leisure areas, public places and facilities are completed.

The waterfront development will enable a lifestyle that will be the envy of many. Residents will enjoy a 5-kilometre boardwalk which will boast a vast array of food, beverage and retail outlets and tourists will participate in the vibrancy and excitement of what is sure to become a favoured destination for many. Running tracks, viewing areas and marinas will only add to the appeal of an already famous Jumeriah district which will be further enhanced with the re-opening of the Jumeriah Beach Park.

However, it is not just the waterfront properties that will benefit from an upward value adjustment. Any property which is within an easy walking distance of the waterfront attraction or newly reopened beachfront will reap the inevitable rewards of being located within proximity to the latest attraction in Dubai. Those existing owner occupiers living close to the canal, who have been affected by the projects construction, will reap the rewards of their patience and tolerance with the sharp increase of the values of their properties.

Meanwhile, the project will help ensure that tourism will continue to play its part in driving Dubai’s economic growth. This project is just one of a slew of new projects to grow this important revenue generating economic segment. Predicted by Mastercard’s Global Destination Cities Index to be the 4th most popular destination in the world by year end, Dubai will have welcomed almost 16 million overnight visitors in the by the close of 2016. This will represent a 12% increase over 2015 and continue a trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010. The canal project represents just one more compelling reason to visit Dubai and the requirement for real estate to support the commercial activities that tourism will give rise to is only bound to increase.

And of course, all that increased tourism will require people to service it. They, in turn, will require accommodation. Such mega projects have definite effects the population growth of the emirate and population growth is the pre-requisite to real estate and property industry growth. This is where the Dubai economy has an advantage over many western economies in that, looking forward, there is a requirement for intellectual and human capital which is not residing dormant and unutilised in the economy and attracting this critical resource can only result adding to economic growth, providing additional impetus for Dubai’s Real Estate industry to enjoy the predictable surge in demand for accommodation and commercial space of all types, from labor camps to offices to warehouses to apartments to executive Villas. That demand, however, can only be created with the incremental economic activity that the initiatives such as the Canal project can provide.

Investors are already showing lots of interest in the project which is not surprising. Other projects that have been developed with a water based lifestyle theme such as The Palm, Dubai Marina and the adjacent Jumeriah Beach residences have done remarkably well and proven popular with both local and overseas investors. They all share one common characteristic … they offer wonderful lifestyles and the Canal project will be no different. The project is already demonstrating significant potential to satisfy the appetite for investment returns and the fundamental reasoning is compelling.

 

2017 – A Year of Transition

2017_a_year_of_transition

I will remember 2016 as a year of uncertainty with the occasional splash of surprise combined with a healthy dose of bemusement. Ironically,  I will also remember it as my most successful year yet.

So, what about 2017?

For investors, potential owner occupiers, developers or another industry stakeholder, 3 essential elements are of paramount importance in ensuring long term sustainable growth in an industry which itself, is a key ingredient to long term economic growth. The global events and developments of 2016 certainly challenged the strength of these 3 fundamental elements.

They can be identified as the 3C’s or, more specifically, Capital, Confidence and Clarity. The 3 C’s are interdependent whereby a shift or change in any one element will affect the other two. The relationship between all 3 C’s can be either positive or negative and can lead to a multiplier effect on growth or can increase the rates of contraction or decline.

Any forecast for the Dubai Real Estate Industry for 2017 needs to consider these fundamentals and how external and internal events and influences will affect them.

The major issue that is likely to face the industry in 2017 is a strengthening US dollar which, in an industry where 40% of purchases are made by investors that hail from countries whose currencies float freely, could have significant effects. Potential investors from India, UK, Pakistan and China will find it more expensive to invest in the emirate, just as Russian investors have over the past 3 years as the ruble devalued.

A strengthening US dollar will also make property in other markets such as the UK, Asia or Europe more attractive, essentially putting pressure on the amount of capital being invested in Dubai.

The likelihood of a strong USD is significant. The combination of the already evident “Trump” effect and the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase of December 14 already has already driven the USD to its highest level in almost 15 years. It is likely that, given the Feds intention to embark upon at least 3 interest rate hikes in 2017, the USD will remain at this elevated level for at least the first 6 months of 2017 which is likely to dampen the amount of investor capital that flows into the property market.

However, what happens in the latter half of 2017 is a bit more of a mystery. Already, pundits are saying that the Trump effect will not last and that his campaign promises regarding fiscal, trade and immigration policies will be very difficult to achieve. If so, and given the Federal Reserve’s History of changing course on predicted interest rate hikes, it is not unlikely that we could see a weakening of the USD sometime on the latter half of 2017. Once we get clarity on the likelihood of this occurring, we could see confidence growing amongst investors and capital flows reverse, to the benefit of the local market.

Meanwhile, it appears that the on-going saga of the Brexit implementation is likely to carry on for some time, probably leading to a continuance of a weak British pound for the foreseeable future. The local property market is likely to continue to feel the pressure of the Brexit effect.

But it isn’t all doom and gloom … far from it.

From a macro level, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at a targeted 4%+ in 2017 and beyond. Underpinning this growth trajectory is a commitment and determination to deliver on initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo and, in 2017, we will see the countdown to 2020 and the massive infrastructural investment associated with the event markedly gather pace.

While Dubai’s reliance on oil is minimal due to its economic diversification initiatives, the recent OPEC (and others) agreement to cap oil supply resulting in in higher oil prices is, nevertheless, welcomed. This augers well for a return of the Russian investor whose ruble has been the best performing currency for the last 3 months but should also see increased capital being available to local investors.

Tourism and trade is flourishing in Dubai and the focus of spending has been on new projects to grow these important revenue generating economic segments and further diversification. The launch of 2 major theme parks in 2016 will ensure Dubai attracts over 15 million visitors in 2017, continuing a growth trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010 and is well on track to attracting over 20 million visitors in 2020.

So, I see 2017 as being a transitional year for the industry with the first half of the year being really a continuation of the market uncertainty that has been such a characteristic of 2016. As at the time of writing, there were still too many unknowns in the world today.

However, I expect the latter half of 2017 to see an increase in investment activity, property values and first home ownership as the effects of world events that so surprised us in 2016, begin to become more apparent and the risks associated more assessable. In addition, the inevitable organic growth from a population increase within the emirate, which will emanate from the infrastructural investments and economic activity associated with the countdown to the 2020 Expo, will provide a welcome and long awaited boost to demand for property, of all types, throughout the emirate.

AN AMUSING STORY… IF IT WASN’T SO SERIOUS!

By Mohanad Alwadiya
CEO, Harbor Real Estate
Senior Advisor & Instructor, Dubai Real Estate Institute

When it comes to amusement, I have always thought that Dubai has a definite competitive advantage in that it is uniquely placed. With its geographic location, infrastructure, stability, cultural diversity and existing reputation as a leisure destination of note, development as the destination of choice by, not only GCC families and youth, but visitors from all over the world who desire amusement, adventure and unique experiences, will play an increasingly important role in building a strong, vibrant and resilient economy and, of course, property industry.

So, it was with excitement, not amusement, which I read about the latest addition to a city already swelling with entertainment and activity alternatives – the IMG Worlds of Adventure. This amusement park took three years to build and cost more than 3.6 billion dirhams. To be labelled “the world’s largest indoor theme park” is no idle boast, with the complex covering over 1.5 million square feet or around 20 times the size of the pitch at Emirates Stadium in London.

And, wait for it… there is more to come…

The next six months should see an even bigger development which, built at a cost approaching 10 billion dirhams, will include such entertainment icons as LEGOLAND and Bollywood, and a giant water park.

The new theme parks will play a key role in ensuring the emirate’s target of 20 million visitors will be visiting the emirate annually from 2021 will be achieved. Very impressive stuff!

But the reason why I love these latest theme parks is not because I enjoy rollercoaster rides … I will leave that for the more adventurous. I am excited at the effect these fantastic initiatives will have on the economy and, more specifically, the property industry that is so close to my heart.

From an economic point of view, this is very serious business indeed!

Aside from the obvious direct benefits of tens of billions of dirhams being invested into the economy, few people realize the enormous economic contribution theme parks make to the overall economy post launch. It is a cliché, but the world is a small place and the war for providing entrepreneurial and employment opportunities is waged on a global battleground and a successful entertainment and amusement industry is just one economic weapon that Dubai can employ to great effect.

And being a global growth industry, participation cannot be ignored.  Consider the following which was sourced from the TEA/AECOM 2015 Theme Index and Museum Index:

In 2015, there were …

…420 million visits to attractions run by the top 10 global theme park groups, up by 7.2 percent.
…236 million visits to the top 25 amusement/theme parks worldwide, up by 5.4 percent.
…146 million visits to the top 20 amusement/theme parks in North America, up by 5.9 percent.
…131 million visits to the top 20 amusement/theme parks in Asia-Pacific, up by 6.9 percent.
…61 million visits to the top 20 amusement/theme parks in Europe, Middle East and Africa, up by 2.8 percent.
… 29 million visits to the top 20 water parks worldwide, up by 3.7 percent.

In a world that is struggling to generate any form of impressive economic growth, the growth within this industry is truly impressive.

Without doubt, the current world leader with regards to amusement parks is the southern US state of Florida. It’s a fact that theme parks are a major reason why people visit this American state. Here are the top theme parks in Florida and the number of annual visitors they attracted in 2014 according to the TEA/AECOM Theme and Museum Index…

… Magic Kingdom – 19.3 million
… Epcot -11.5 million
… Disney’s Animal Kingdom – 10.4 million
… Disney Hollywood Studios – 10.3 million
… Universal Studios – 8.2 million
… Islands of Adventure at Universal Studios – 8.1 million
… SeaWorld – 4.7 million
… Busch Gardens Tampa Bay – 4.1 million

Truly impressive numbers which only highlight that the economic advantages created by having such a robust entertainment industry are staggering. The state estimates tourism brings in a whopping $82 billion in visitor spending while the State Department of Economic Opportunity says that of the approximately 9.1 million workers in Florida, 1.1 million of them hold jobs directly attributed to tourism. That’s better than 1 worker in 10!

Obviously, the job creation potential of this industry, both direct and indirect is staggering… which is why amusement parks are such serious business. The true long-term value of these projects lies in the long-term economic advantages of employing people and creating commercial activities in order to develop a unique capability to entertain the families and youth of the region and beyond.

And job growth fosters population growth which is critical to any property / real estate Industry. It is the undisputed catalyst to industry growth and the population growth generated by the substantial increase in investment and employment opportunities that a successful foray into the entertainment industry would generate would be and have huge and long-lasting benefits for the property / real estate industry downstream.

Aspire to be a Property Owner

By Mohanad Alwadiya
CEO, Harbor Real Estate
Senior Advisor & Instructor, Dubai Real Estate

Among the most fundamental (and practical) dreams people share in common is the dream of owning a home. But why is it that not everyone succeeds in this endeavor? Economics, of course, plays a significant role in the overall scheme of things. So, given the opportunity to purchase a property, or your home, no less, would you not hold on tightly and make sure you own (pun intended) it?

In Dubai, while there has been a correction in rental values, it has essentially lagged behind the correction in property values, and I do not believe that the general rent decline will exceed 10% in most areas. Rents will eventually start to rise from 2017 as preparations for the 2020 Expo start gathering pace.

I have always held a view that owning a property is essential to underpinning the accumulation of wealth and building net worth. Obviously, the accumulation of the property asset itself must be done judiciously and with a high level of diligence and care but, in my experience, the vast majority of people who have taken the step towards property ownership have benefitted significantly.

The essential question to ask is “How do I use my money to increase my wealth instead of the wealth of my landlord?”

Buying your home is a positive step towards establishing your financial security by building your equity or “net worth”. Owning property allows you to change the application of your hard-earned dirhams from covering an expense which offers you no financial return to investing in an asset which does. In a way, it’s a forced form of saving which will reap benefits for you in the future.

Conversely, paying rent actually detracts from your ability to build net worth because, not only are you paying out money for no financial gain, but you are at the mercy of rental inflation as well. This is a problem because you are consistently being asked to pay more while your salary increases are lagging behind, effectively eroding your ability to build wealth. By owning your home, inflation is working in your favor because, in all likelihood, your property is increasing in value and, if kept for a number of years, will enjoy an inflation-driven compounding effect on its value. This allows you to build your individual net worth through the capital appreciation of your property – something which is very important for your financial future.

The fundamentals of buying real estate in Dubai are no different from those elsewhere in the world. As an expat in a new country, you may be even more anxious regarding the decision to buy which is all the more reason to stick to some tried and true principles.

First of all, you need to be very clear as to why you are investing in real estate. Whether it’s to provide the family with a home, generate a steady stream of income or build equity for the future, make sure you are very clear about what your expectations are and quantify them wherever possible. Plan for the long term as the industry is cyclical yet very rewarding if you ride out one or two cycles.

You also need to ensure that you know what you can afford. If you have the cash to pay for the property that you really want, I suggest you pay for it outright; however, don’t be afraid to take out a mortgage and make the purchase as at least your repayments are building equity, not being lost forever on rent.

Then it’s a case of finding the right property. I suggest you contact a reputable real estate brokerage to assist you in doing this, but make sure that you conduct your own research as well. It’s a big decision you are making, and you need to make sure you take the responsibility and are fully aware of what you are doing.

As always, stick to the basics. Think carefully about location, building quality, developer reputation, completion status and quality of infrastructure and building amenities. Properties which are close to the beach (especially with a sea view), a golf course view or part of an iconic development such as Downtown Dubai is a good place to start. If you can have close access to the Dubai Metro, even better. These locations are more likely to provide superior appreciation in capital value as well as be able to ride out cyclical volatility with less distress.

You also need to consider the effectiveness of the owners association, service charges and the quality of maintenance services.  Facility management is becoming increasingly more important to determining the value of buildings, and it will have an effect on the long-term value of your investment.

Finally, think clearly and rationally. If you cannot find a property immediately that will satisfy your requirements and objectives, do not settle for less, regardless of what’s happening in the market.

Meet Dubai’s own Wolf of Real Estate

By:Binesh Panicker
Published: Property Times
Date: 28 August 2016

Mohanad  Alwadiya is a well-known name in the Dubai real estate market, and he wears many hats. Apart from his professional obligations as the CEO of Harbor Real Estate, he also finds time to contribute to the betterment of the market as Senior Advisor & Instructor at the Dubai Real Estate Institute. He is already a raging hit on social media, not an easy task for someone
from real estate.

Tell us about Memaar. How did the concept take off?
Having a primetime property reality TV show in the Middle East has been a long time coming – whether you’re in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar – practically anywhere in the Middle East, there’s always a new tower, a unique residential project or a new iconic building being launched or unveiled. So MEMAAR simply had to be.

MEMAAR is the brainchild of the Dubai Channels Network (DCN), and we officially went on air for Season 1 in May 2015. We already have a solid audience following comprising millions of viewers from all across the GCC and beyond. When it comes to our guests, we always select real clients from different backgrounds and objectives in order to offer various enriching perspectives.

The show’s objective is to educate, entertain and engage viewers with the real estate sector. I’m overwhelmed with the amount of positive feedback that I receive on a daily basis from viewers from all over the world praising the show and seeking my advice. The show is now broadcasted weekly on Dubai TV every Wednesday at 7pm, Sama Dubai TV every Sunday at 9pm and Dubai One TV (with English subtitles) every Monday at 8pm with multiple repeats on all the 3 channels.

What are the future plans for the show?
After the tremendous success of the first and second seasons, we’re going full-blast on a multimedia level. We have a lot more in store for our ever-growing number of loyal fans.
We are currently shooting for Season 3, with 16 new exciting guests and episodes. The show started broadcasting on Dubai One TV with English subtitles and will continue to run on Dubai TV and Sama Dubai TV. Of course, we want to keep growing and developing, always mindful of the feedback we are getting from our MEMAAR fan base.

You are popularly known as “The Wolf of Real Estate,” which made you a huge hit in social media. Tell us more about your social media presence and its effect.

Thanks to Property Times back in 2014, I got the “Wolf of Real Estate” title given to me which has proven to be a very interesting and strategic form of branding for myself which I have, yes, fully embraced – that is, minus the negative connotation associated with the more famous moniker for Jordan Belfort – “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

However, I believe the moniker emanated from the work of our company, Harbor Real Estate, having been previously referred to as a star that emerged from the last GFC. Beyond having simply survived, it was during the GFC that Harbor Real Estate, in the face of a level of adversity that the industry had never witnessed before, really grew as a real estate enterprise of significant capability and standing in the industry.

In terms of my current social media presence, I do have more than 1,300,000 followers on my public Facebook pages, almost 40,000 followers on my “The Wolf of Real Estate Official” Instagram account, and 515,000 followers on my “Mohanad Alwadiya” official Instagram account. On Twitter, I have a little over 50,000 followers on Snapchat and over 10,000 connections on LinkedIn.
I get all sorts of positive and encouraging comments and messages on different social media platforms, such as those expressing their gratitude for the information and analysis I provide on the TV show, articles I write or social media posts. I also receive a lot of messages from followers asking for my opinion about certain issues or real estate advice. As for the unusual ones and even those which appear negative, I usually just take them with a grain of salt and try to respond positively. In general, I try to answer all the messages I receive as much as I can because I really enjoy the interaction with all my followers, and this allows me to stay in touch with the market and gauge the impact of the various activities I’m involved in.

The response from people via social media has been overwhelming and I am still trying to get used to being referred to as some sort of celebrity in my own right because, frankly, I don’t consider myself a celebrity… just the facilitator of the reality TV show MEMAAR… just doing my job!

What is your ultimate dream?
Well, there’s a lot of things on my mind, and so much that I wish to do! However, the realities imposed by time makes careful prioritization essential.
I’m currently working on a portfolio of development projects and initiatives. Harbor Real Estate continues to expand and is continually developing the capability to provide industry leading service. I call this the “never-ending initiative” as every individual or organization can always improve regardless of past achievements.

From a business growth perspective, there is plenty to be excited about. We have several new projects and unique services that will be launched very soon and we are looking forward to Cityscape to allow us to share these with investors and aspiring homeowners.

Meanwhile, I am also at the final stages of publishing my first bilingual property management book and will be working closely with the Dubai Real Estate Institute on introducing an advanced version of the certification property management course.

There are many other ideas and initiatives that I wish to develop after 2016. I still believe our industry can benefit and better serve our customers by adopting and applying technologies in the areas of product development and communications. The world has become a global marketplace but I still believe that global capital flows in our industry are still hindered somewhat because we do not do a good enough job of putting enough global investors in a position of confidence and certainty. There remains a lot of potential in this space I believe.

Then of course, there’s MEMAAR. As mentioned earlier, we’re all working together and collaborating on how we can keep the show growing and developing, so it only gets better every season.

What is your take on the next few months for Dubai market? There is a general feeling of positivity among agents. What is the reality?
Everyone knows that Dubai real estate has been undergoing correction for quite some time now. We feel that the decline in values associated with that correction has halted or virtually halted in all market segments, or that the market is bottoming out. In Q1 of 2016, we have already witnessed significant growth in investor activity and strong land sales. Both are leading indicators that the market is heading into its next cyclical phase. We at Harbor believe that by the end of 2016, the market will have entered its next phase of growth which is expected to accelerate as we draw ever closer to the Dubai World Expo in 2020.

PROFESSIONALIZING THE REAL ESTATE PRACTICE

By Mohanad Alwadiya
CEO, Harbor Real Estate
Senior Advisor & Instructor, Dubai Real Estate Institute
Published by: Property Time Magzine

During the years marking the last global economic recession, reports on fraudulent business practices and shady dealings in real estate became quite rampant, and people (investors and end-users) realized that those who fail to practice due diligence have nothing to gain in a relatively new and still-emerging albeit rapidly growing property market.

Now, even as the UAE economy as a whole continues to lag from its earlier predicted level of activity, the real estate industry, in spite of the industry-wide slowdown, continues to earn its share of winners and non-gainers in terms of current industry practice.

Some individuals still manage to pose as agents or real estate representatives, produce fake documents, and get away with the money virtually scot-free. And while the government has put in place strict protocols whether it be in professionalizing industry practices or instituting new policies and regulations to guard the best interests of the market, there are still a few unscrupulous individuals who manage to prey on buyers, even tenants.

The term “business ethics” is not something alien or new to us, but some people with careers outside of the real estate realm may view the term with a heavily critical eye, with some perhaps even joking about the incompatible nature of the words “business” and “ethics.”

But we all know that in real estate, a number of professions emerge including, but not limited to: commercial or residential brokerage, appraisal/valuation, property management, real estate counselling, etc. That being said, for a job to be considered a bona fide profession, it would require some commitment to a certain standard of conduct that the general public expects from the practitioner. This is where the real estate code of ethics comes in.

However, some might say: but anyone can become a realtor, so how does this seemingly “open” industry professionalize current practice and regulate the activities of real estate practitioners? What rules or structures are in place to prevent any form of abuse and/or malpractice in an industry where sometimes morally contradictory relationships or grey areas exist such as in the case of open market listings where one seller lists with various agents, and the big question is where would the realtor’s loyalty be – with the seller or the buyer? Or in the case of valuation assignments where the client may indirectly or even expressly makes known to the appraiser the outcome they are expecting.

Another dilemma confronting realtors is their reliance on commission-based remuneration whereby agents’ dependence on said commission may run counter to the best interests of the client. While a good commission structure would evidently motivate realtors to give their best efforts in order to successfully convert a lead and close a deal, the question of whether or not conditions set are for or against the best interests of their client remains – with yes being the answer in some cases, and at other times not so especially in cases of self-dealing in real estate.

Aside from By-law No. 85 “Regulating the Real Estate Brokers Register in the Emirate of Dubai” which expressly states the legal mandate governing the real estate practice, the Real Estate Regulatory Agency (RERA) and the Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI) established a mandatory certification program for new and experienced agents who wish to work in a real estate brokerage in Dubai. The DREI also organizes license renewal courses and exams along with a very rich variety of career development programs intended to help elevate the standards of professionalism and effectiveness of brokers in Dubai.

All realtors are, therefore, expected to abide by local laws pertaining to the real estate practice as well as to government regulations that are periodically introduced and, at times, go through a series of revisions or reforms in order to address new issues or problems that crop up every once in a while.

But even in the face of such regulation, real estate firms must also take it upon themselves to continuously educate and empower their agents to make the best decisions in order to maintain individual and corporate integrity, professionalism and, ultimately, success in the real estate business.

Investing in training, whether in-house or otherwise, definitely pays a huge dividend. Extensive and tailor-made training programs should include education on the industry and pertinent rules/regulations (especially on current or new legislation), soft skills and specialized training courses that help employees attain a level of mastery in all the macro and micro aspects of their profession.

The ongoing development of the industry’s regulatory framework and implementation of laws and regulations to safeguard both consumer and investor interests, the overall industry and the economy at large from rampant and irresponsible speculative, predatory or unethical practices, all reveal a mature and balanced approach to shaping an industry which exhibits sustainable growth over the long term.

Taken altogether, the laws of the land serve as the primary push for realtors to act in a way that upholds and reflects the greater good while constant education through training, workshops, seminars and the like (whether mandatory or voluntary) help real estate practitioners internalize the values that must inherently pervade the system for the industry to thrive and continue to serve as one of the primary sectors supporting the UAE economy.

The Real Estate Regulatory Agency (RERA) and the Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI) have set a mandatory certification program for new and experienced agents who wish to work in a real estate brokerage in Dubai. The Dubai Real Estate Institute also organizes license renewal courses and exams along with a very rich variety of career development programs designed to help elevate the standards of professionalism and effectiveness of brokers in Dubai.
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EMAAR… THE BUILDER OF ICONS

EMAAR_THE_BUILDER_OF_ICONS

By: Mohanad Alwadiya
Published: Property Times
Dated: May 2016

Since 1997, Emaar Properties has been pioneering the development of Dubai real estate by continually and consistently conceptualizing, designing and constructing quality master-planned communities across the emirate.

So integral has Emaar Properties been to the growth and development of Dubai that its own growth and emergence as one of the world’s most valuable and respected real estate development companies has been virtually synchronous with the emergence of Dubai as one of the world’s great cities.

By delivering established communities such as Arabian Ranches, Emirates Living, and Dubai Marina, Emaar has played a major role in establishing the bedrock for supporting the lifestyle that Dubai offers today. But all that was eclipsed when it delivered its flagship development, Downtown Dubai, home to the iconic Burj Khalifa, The Dubai Mall and The Dubai Fountain. Not only did it provide what is now the world’s leading lifestyle destination, but it also reshaped Dubai’s skyline forever, and gave it a profile which is recognized around the world.

And that skyline is about to change significantly, once again, with the announcement of the construction of a stunning new architectural icon, the latest exciting development by Emaar.

The icon will simply be known as “The Tower” and its design was chosen by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, a design which draws inspiration from the lily and evokes the image of a minaret, which is a common feature and distinctive aspect of Islamic culture and architecture.

The location of The Tower is an important reminder of Dubai’s past as it will be constructed on the Dubai Creek, the cradle of Dubai’s history and culture. This astute choice of location will forever mark the origin of Dubai and remind all of the humble beginnings of what has now become a remarkable story of vision and growth, amply demonstrated by the 6 square kilometers of world-class master-planned development that will have The Tower as its centerpiece.

Not only is the site historically significant, but it is also located in close proximity to the Ras Al Khor National Wildlife Sanctuary, protected under the UNESCO Ramsar Convention, and home to over 67 species of water birds.

And, as with all great icons, The Tower has a reason for being, and is envisioned to be of symbolic significance to, not only Dubai and the UAE, but also to global visitors hailing from all across the world.

Mohamed Alabbar, Chairman of Emaar Properties, said: “The Tower in Dubai Creek Harbour is our tribute to the positivity, energy and optimism that Dubai and the UAE celebrate, led by a leadership committed to all-round progress. A shining beacon of hope for the world, celebrating diversity and human achievements, this new iconic landmark further highlights the country’s ambition and futuristic vision, and enhances our nation’s pride. It will be the destination for the world to visit, enjoy and celebrate life, as Dubai prepares to host the Expo 2020.”

He also added: “It integrates, not just design excellence but also strong environmental and smart-tech considerations. With The Tower, we are delivering a compelling destination that will add long-term economic value to Dubai and the UAE. It will also position Dubai Creek Harbour as one of the most desired residential, leisure and touristic attractions, providing visitors and residents with a modern, luxurious and sustainable environment in which to live, work, learn and entertain.”

As an iconic structure, The Tower will provide a clear and bold symbol of a people’s culture, aspirations and ambitions. It will be representative of a vision of progress that has global relevance and benefit demonstrated through innovation, growth and development.

Every nation or great city has some symbolic architectural icon which helps to define either the history, vision, cultural values or characteristics of the people that inhabit it… whether it be the Statue of Liberty, The Eiffel Tower, The Shard in London, The Sydney Opera House, or even St. Basil’s Cathedral in Moscow… they are all symbols, and all of us have grown to accept those structures to be symbolic, in some way, of the cultures that they uniquely represent.

In my mind, I believe The Tower will represent the pride of a nation, an unmistakable reminder of what has and can be achieved regardless of how humble the beginning… of how people, corporations and governments, united by a shared vision, can play a role, share the burden and eventually mutually benefit from progress, and the desire to improve and achieve.

And it comes as no surprise to me that Emaar, with its pioneering spirit and continued significant contribution to the development of this amazing city of Dubai, should be the driving force behind this wonderful initiative, for it is Emaar, as an organization, that harbors and exhibits all the qualities that The Tower has been designed to symbolize.