recovery

Dubai Realty Challenged by Oversupply, Lack of Credit: Harbor Report

DUBAI – Looming oversupply and a lack of availability of mortgage are among the top challenges to a possible recovery in Dubai’s recession-hit real estate sector, said property broker Harbor Real Estate in its latest edition of the 
Harbor Report.

“An estimated 60,000 residential units and 30million square feet of office space are coming on stream by the end of 2011,” the report said. It said research conducted by Harbor indicates that, in the next two years, some 10,200 units will be released in Dubai Marina and Jumeirah Lakes Towers alone.

“With relatively high vacancy rates in both property sectors currently, the property scene is facing some significant oversupply challenges. Any student of economics 101 knows that, in time, equilibrium between supply and demand is eventually reached. The third variable to this overly simplistic equation is price.”
The report said that the recent quarter-on-quarter five per cent spike in prices for Dubai’s residential properties meant that; “for certain investors seeking certain property types, the price is just about right.” Harbor said the price trends in the first quarter “will bear testimony as to whether this is the beginning of a sustainable recovery or a minor blip in the stabilisation process.”

The report said demand for property throughout 2009 was also hindered by a lack of credit availability, tightening of lending policies and the inability of potential consumers to comply with such policies. “In 2010, the increase in flow of credit into the market place will be gradual at best.”

In addition to not having sufficient funds on hand for lending, mortgage providers and investment financiers are still not in a position to fully and confidently assess the level of risk they can prudently assume, mainly due to uncertainty which surrounds the risk inherent in their current loan portfolios, it said.

The report also said that the last 12 months were quite challenging for anyone wanting to obtain a mortgage in Dubai. In response to the global financial turmoil, banks had tightened their credit policies, reduced lending ratios and increased interest rates. “It appears that the worst may now be behind us and lenders are once again opening up their credit policies. While obtaining a mortgage is still not simple, and may not be for a while, lenders are now more willing to consider applications.” Interest rates are also on the way down. The average rate is now approximately 7.5 per cent, down from about 8.5 per cent a few months ago, it said.

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Investors confident about Dubai property market

DUBAI: Real estate industry experts say that investors have started expressing confidence in the Dubai property market in the long term, though the property prices in Dubai have not been affected by the recent Dubai World debt restructuring talks.

Speaking to The Gulf Today the CEO of Leo Sterling, Laura Martorano said that despite all the negative economic indicators, Dubai will continue to thread a bright future.

At the same time the managing director of Harbor Real Estate, Mohanad Alwadiya, also confirmed that property sales enquiries have picked up.

He believes the hike in interest is a result of the debt crisis. “Since the Dubai World announcement, we have recorded a noticeable increase in the number of queries from private and institutional investors who are interested in taking advantage of the impact that the announcement may have on the overall prices of property in Dubai and in Nakheel developments in specific.”

Martorano says that investors who bought property in Dubai not later than two years ago still stand to make a profit despite the current low prices.
She however added that people who are suffering the most are those who bought properties last year on mortgage because prices were extremely high with mortgage rates high as well.

Martorano adds that those people who bought property before 2007 have not lost, even if they sell they will still make a profit. She further says that property prices in Dubai were not much affected by the recent Dubai World debt restructuring talks.

“We were closing transactions with a few owners in JBR and they are sticking to their own price and we closed it on their price,” said Martorano.
On the other hand, Alwadiya says that although the Dubai World request caused global markets to plunge and attracted criticism in the international press, the situation he says has been overblown. However, he feels the incident has affected investor confidence.

We definitely feel that the international media is blowing this news out of proportion and a major effort will be required to reverse world opinions, he adds.
“Prices in a ready market will not change much because there is competition. In a ready market, about 60 per cent of the purchases are cash purchases. Therefore, these people may not necessarily be so desperate as opposed to the 40 per cent who have mortgages and bank loans,” explains Martorano.
Industry sources however claim that property transactions in Dubai have fallen in November compared to figures posted in the previous month.

Statistics from Dubai Land Department show the number of villa sale, have increased by 24 per cent from 88 to 109 but there was a 41 per cent decline in the value from Dh290m in October to Dh170m in November.

Flat sales saw a 4.8 per cent increase in number from 1,354 to 1,420 but values took a 7.7 per cent dive from Dh1.3bn to Dh1.2bn.
Dubai’s average monthly market index in November has also seen a 6.98 per cent contraction to 2,124.98 from 2,284.42 in the past month.
October also reported other positive indicators with average monthly market index posted at 11.25 per cent hike and trade as per issued Dubai certificates of origin rose by 10 per cent in volume and nine per cent in value.

Despite all the negative economic indicators, Martorano is convinced that Dubai will continue to thread a bright future.
She says investors with the means should shop around, “It’s a great time if you are a cash buyer, because banks are anticipated to get more tight-fisted, as they will come under pressure in a bid to keep a safety net due to their exposure to Dubai World.” Martorano thinks the debt issue is unlikely to stop the market from rebounding.

Realty prices projected to stabilise in 2010

Residential real estate prices are likely to stabilise in 2010, with buyers investing for the long term, according to real estate agents.

At the same time rents in Dubai’s commercial sector have stabilised over the past three months. While office rents in the emirate had been falling since late last year, the rentals have stabilised of late, revealed Better Homes data, shared exclusively with Emirates Business.

“Prices across villas and apartments will stabilise in 2010. Moreover, buyers investing in residences in Dubai will enter on a long-term basis, indicating a less speculative interest in the emirate for next year,” said Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director, Harbor Real Estate.

Just ahead of the new year, Emirates Business picked 12 residential projects in Dubai that received interest from potential property owners and tenants in the past 12 months.

Some of these projects saw increased sales and rental transactions, while some projects, such as Burj Dubai by Emaar Properties and the Villa Project in Dubailand by Al Mazaya Real Estate, are gathering a lot of interest just ahead of their handover.

Analysts attributed the stabilisation of rents to an improved economic environment, which has led to a slowdown in the restructuring exercises of local companies.

“The pace at which companies were restructuring and consolidating their plans to cut down their staff and give away additional space during the first half of the year have reduced over the past few months keeping the vacancy level of the office space stable to 25 per cent in the region,” said Porush Jhunjhunwala, Manager, Commercial Leasing at Better Homes.

Residential prices to stabilise on long-term buying

Residential real estate prices are likely to stabilise in 2010, with buyers investing for the long term, according to property agents.

“Prices across villas and apartments will stabilise in 2010. Moreover, buyers investing in residences in Dubai will enter on a long-term basis, indicating a less speculative interest in the emirate,” said Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate.

However, challenges to the real estate sector continue to remain. Alwadiya said: “While mortgage financing is easing, it is still limited in availability. Banks are lending but only to people with certain fixed profiles and according to rigid criteria. For example, people working in the real estate sector find it hard to source funding because of the risk associated to their job. Also, infrastructure in many developments needs to keep pace with the progress of the development.”

Vineet Kumar, Head of Sales at Asteco, said: “The buying trend has been towards ready properties, and mortgage finance is available for most projects from leading mortgage providers. Interest rates are in the range of 6.5 per cent to 10 per cent. Occupancy levels in developments handed over are generally in excess of 70 per cent. Locations such as Dubai Marina and Downtown Burj Dubai are being preferred by young families, while larger families have a preference for large villas in locations such as Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Islands.”

Just ahead of the new year, Emirates Business picked 12 residential projects in Dubai that received interest from potential property owners and tenants in the past 12 months. Some of these projects saw increased sales and rental transactions while some projects, such as Burj Dubai by Emaar Properties and the Villa Project in Dubailand by Al Mazaya Real Estate, are gathering a lot of interest just ahead of their handover.

Other major factors noted have been population shifts from other emirates and other developments in Dubai’s Discovery Gardens and International City projects.

“The reason for this is the attractive rental prices within these developments. In fact, recently, large corporates have looked to lease multiple units for their mid-level staff in International City,” said Alwadiya.

“The Motor City development, too, has witnessed an increase in occupancy rates from end-users and tenants seeking affordable and value-for-money residential units. Influx of people from neighbouring emirates, such as Sharjah, Ajman and Abu Dhabi, has further fuelled growth in occupancy rates within the development.”

How mergers could save the property and financial sectors

Mohanad Al Wadiya, Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate Brokerage, shares his thoughts on upcoming mergers

For many players in the local market, mergers and acquisitions appear to be a logical solution to stay afloat during the global financial crisis. Opinion is divided as to whether these mergers and acquisitions will have a positive or negative impact in the short and medium terms, and it is too early at this stage to predict success or failure. Nevertheless, it seems clear that without these actions, the result would be a freeze in financing facilities and diminishing activity in the property sector, which would have an adverse effect on the overall economy.

Within the financial sector, these kinds of mergers really started as early as last year. It all began when Amlak and Tamweel announced a merger to create Emirates Development Bank in November 2008. The new bank will have access to federal funds and hopes to strengthen the UAE’s home finance sector. The merger news gained considerable media attention and created veryhigh expectations.

In terms of property development, we have seen similar mergers within the last year. Dubai World, the major property and ports conglomerate, recently consolidated its management and property operations of Leisurecorp, Dubai Maritime City, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, all of which it owns. The property divisions of these companies will now be run by Nakheel, another property arm of Dubai World.

There is also continued discussion of a merger between Deyaar Development and Union Properties, with news about the latter having liquidity problems and losing its long-time chief executive recently.

While these developments are important for the sector, the most significant merger in the region is currently being discussed between Dubai Holdings’ ‘Big 3’ companies and Emaar, a most popular developer in the Middle East. Dubai Properties, Tatweer, and Sama Dubai—collectively known as ‘The Big 3’—are fully-owned subsidiariesof Dubai Holding Commercial Operations, a holding company of Dubai Holding Group with total assets of Dh126bn at the end of 2008, as quotes by Emaar.

There is a growing consensus among the officials involved that allowing healthy businesses to acquire companies in jeopardy of failing could stabilise the economy by bolstering confidence in both the financial and property sectors. For some of these companies, merging with a partner that has a strong balance sheet is a pressing and essential step in preventing dissolution. Other benefits include leveraging economies of scale and having stronger negotiation positions with regard to suppliers and contractors. The mergers will allow companies to work together to achieve long-term, strategic benefits by uniting complementary businesses into a single, sufficient and more successful operation. For the property sector, these mergers will also allow consolidated companies to have better control of the overall supply introduced into the marketplace and the quality of the products and services offered. This will definitely have a positive impact on the market in the long run.

On the other hand, there are concerns that these mergers will place heavy burdens on the stronger companies
involved. These partners are not just taking over assets, but may also be inheriting large liabilities and debts. Furthermore, these mergers are likely to generate a lot of uncertainty among the investors and shareholders involved. Investors might have to accept further delays until these mergers are finalised, and will then have to evaluate the impact of the mergers on their investment.

Whatever the impact, the number of mergers involving financial and property organisations is increasing. For these new companies, the ability to provide prompt, transparent, and practical information that guide all stakeholders through the merger process and expected outcomes could make the difference between success and failure from the public’s point of view.

Meadows, Jumeirah Islands top sales transactions

Villlas in The Meadows, Jumeirah Islands and Arabian Ranches have seen increased sales transactions in the past one month. Among apartment buildings, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR), Downtown Burj Dubai and Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) have recorded the maximum number of sales transactions.

“Among villas, Meadows, Jumeirah Islands, Arabian ranches recorded the highest transactions, while from an apartment perspective, Dubai Marina, JBR, Downtown Burj Dubai and JLT have recorded the highest transaction,” Peter Penhall, Chief Executive, Gowealthy.

Gowealthy recorded 20 per cent incremental growth in transactions for November, from October figures.

Vineet Kumar, Head of Sales, Asteco Property Management, said: “The top three residential areas, which have witnessed the most transactional activity in the month of November for apartments sales, have been The Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina and Downtown Burj Dubai areas. “The locations which witnessed the most transactional activity in the month of November for villa sales are The Emirates Living Area, Arabian Ranches and The Green Community.”

Kumar said the total number of transactions Asteco supported in the month of November was 48 individual sales. However, some of these transactions were single investors purchasing multiple units so the overall unit numbers were higher than this.”

Liz O’Connor, Director-Residential Sales and Leasing, said: “From a sales perspective, among the villas, Springs/Meadows, Jumeirah Village, Jumeirah Islands stood apart and in the apartments category, it were Downtown Burj Dubai, Jumeirah Beach Residence and Dubai Marina.

“From a rental perspective, Emirates Living [Springs, Meadows, JLT, Discovery Gardens, Jumeirah Village], Marina [JBR, Marina], Dubai Land [Arabian Ranches, Motor City, Sports City] have recorded high number of transactions.”

The sales were about 40 and leases are about 250, according to Better Homes.

According to Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director, Harbor Real Estate, Emirates Hills Third and Palm Jumeirah are the areas that have recorded maximum transactions.

According to Penhall, predominantly South Asian (Indians, followed by Pakistanis) have invested into these areas. The GCC nationals form the next largest set, followed by South East Asians/Chinese. “Most of them were end users and finance buyers,” he added.

According to Kumar, the buyer profile has been predominantly the end user. However, there were a few buyers based overseas who have bought properties for rental income purposes with a view to holding their real estate assets for the mid-term (5-7 years). “The buyers on these projects were mixture of individuals from the GCC countries, Russia, India, Pakistan and Western Europe,” he said.

O’Connor said these areas have mostly seen end-users, pre-qualified for a mortgage but those who have access to additional funds to cover the difference if the evaluation of the property was less. We deal with many cash buyers who are looking for the best priced properties in today’s market.”

With respect to price floor in these areas, Penhall said that for a higher trading areas such as well-located villas in Meadows and apartments in certain towers at Marina, expectations are being met to a large extent due to the relatively higher availability and demand parameters. “The selling prices are neither too far out of present reach-market getting more matured, buyers and sellers are getting quite pragmatic on their price expectation factors.”

He added that however, the point to be noted here is that currently, price factors are an indication of distress levels of individual sellers and should not necessarily be construed as a market price index for a particular type of property in a particular community.

Kumar said the sales activity on these projects have tended to revolve around the owners and sellers of properties who have purchased them in the years prior 2008. “Typically these properties can be sold in today’s market with some expectation of premium,” said Kumar.

Alwadiya said mixed nationalities of end-users and investors have invested into these areas. “In general, buyers are more demanding and careful nowadays compared to last year and the previous years and hence they do enough due diligence before purchasing any properties.”

According to Better Homes, the buyer is always looking for the best priced property/value for money.

“We have not seen major prices changes sine the last three month – prices have stabilized in certain areas and you can always find very well priced properties in all areas of Dubai,” she said.

Investors hunt for bargains

Investors hunt for bargains after debt scare

Property sales enquiries have picked up, despite Dubai World’s request to creditors for an extension of debt repayments for its subsidiaries, Nakheel and Limitless, say real estate agents.

Mohanad Alwadiya, managing director of Harbor Real Estate, believes the hike in interest is a result of the debt crisis. “Since the Dubai World announcement, we have recorded a noticeable increase in the number of queries from private and institutional investors who are interested in taking advantage of the impact that the announcement may have on the overall prices of property in Dubai and in Nakheel developments in specific.”

Aditya Awtani, of Fine and Country UAE, has also witnessed a surge in investor interest. “We have already noticed in the last few days that vulture investors are pooling together, forming informal/quasi funds, in order to take advantage of the so-called distress situation.”

Although the Dubai World request caused global markets to plunge and attracted criticism in the international press, Alwadiya feels the situation has been overblown. However, he feels the incident has affected investor confidence. “Since the beginning of the economic crisis, consumers and investors have been extremely cautious. Whether we like it or not, they are fragile. The old adage of ‘once bitten twice shy’ will never be as apt as in the next few months. It is as much understandable as it is unavoidable. Simply put, many people have been hurt by the Dubai real estate crash and they don’t want to be hurt again. In effect, they have lost confidence and trust in the industry and have developed a risk aversion which will take some time to overcome. The recent request by Dubai World for an extension on debt repayment timings, resulting in speculative press coverage around the world regarding Dubai’s ability to avoid defaulting on its debts, will further erode confidence in the emirate. We definitely feel that the international media is blowing this news out of proportion but unfortunately, perception is reality and a major effort will be required to reverse world opinion.”

Aditya says investors with the means should shop around, “It’s a great time if you are a cash buyer, because banks are anticipated to get more tight-fisted, as they will come under pressure in a bid to keep a safety net due to their exposure to Dubai World.”

Myles Bush, managing director, PowerHouse Properties, thinks the debt issue is unlikely to stop the market from rebounding. “I believe in Dubai and am very confident about its property market in the long term.”

Burj Dubai units to see stable long-term growth

Long-term prospects for investors in the Burj Dubai tower are relatively solid if they have paid a fair price, with expected appreciation of 10 to 15 per cent per annum over the time, believe realty experts.

In a survey conducted by Emirates Business, Mike Atwell, Head of Middle East Operations, Cushman & Wakefield; Matthew Green, Associate Director, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), Middle East; Adel Hamaizia, Sales and Marketing Director, RE/MAX Abu Dhabi, Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director, Harbor Real Estate; Chet Riley, Equity Research, Middle East, Nomura International, and Venkateshwaran Ramadoss, Senior Research Analyst, Real Estate Department, Kuwait Financial Centre, said iconic buildings are attractive to both investors and occupiers, but the building’s success depends on the supply and demand dynamics in the market.

Emaar Chairman Mohammed Alabbar has said Burj Dubai will open on January 4, 2010 to coincide with the four-year anniversary of accession to power by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

Experts said returns on quality assets have always been there. However, investors have to take a long-term view on property and move away from the speculative model that has evolved in Dubai.

Is buying commercial or residential units in Burj Dubai a wise choice today since prices have bottomed out?

Atwell: Although the property market within Dubai has witnessed a significant price correction this year, we believe it is still too early to say whether prices have bottomed out. A degree of uncertainty remains in the market, caused by a number of factors including lack of available debt financing, potential over-supply and quantifying end-user demand.

Green: If we look in isolation at current prices over 2008 levels, then it certainly looks an attractive investment. However, we must remember that the market has changed significantly over the last 12 months and investors can no longer assume double-digit annual growth rates. During the period demand has weakened substantially, pushing vacancy rates higher and adding to the risk of unit voids. Investment decisions within the current market climate will thus vary, dependant on the overriding driver. Those looking for buy-to-let properties are likely to be more cautious considering weaker demand levels, while those looking at owner occupier assets are likely to be more bullish.

Hamaizia: Yes, as the saying goes “what goes up must come down”, and in this context vice-versa. Major cities of the world (mostly now mature) have all seen cycles of which crazy, semi or mini booms witnessed crazy prices that came down substantially. For example, half or less/50 per cent down –London in the early 90s, Singapore more recently… but subsequently observed a stable recovery, typically reaching at least 75-85 per cent of peak times.

Alwadiya: Investment recommendations are unique for each client and are directly linked to the structure of returns that an investor is seeking in a project. In reality, those clients who paid extremely high prices for Burj properties in 2008 will not enjoy initial healthy return on investment (RoI) per annum – as rental prices continue to drop as a result of the global economic crisis. Some may receive as little as two per cent return on investment in their first year or two. However, those investors who are instead seeking the benefits of long-term capital appreciation and are able to wait for 10 years, enduring lower RoI per annum, will be handsomely rewarded for their patience. I personally believe the price of the Burj will continue to grow at a promising rate over the next 10 years making it an extremely worthwhile investment over other projects.

We were against the investment in the Burj last year due to the rapid price escalation that was seen in the project in 2008 but we will definitely recommend investing currently to capitalise on the excellent prices that are currently on offer and the expected capital appreciation that will be generated as soon as the tower is launched.

Riley: The Burj Dubai is already, and will remain, an iconic building and the focal point for the downtown area. As such residential space should normally have additional intrinsic value and demand but we still believe any investment in real estate should be undertaken for the long term. The choice to buy (or lease) commercial space has to be made considering a number of different variables depending on use. For example, rental levels and potential yields, service charges, tenant demand and expected occupancy, which all ultimately drive capital values. We believe in the long-term prospects of Dubai considering the positioning and infrastructure spend to date. This gives the emirate a lead over regional counterparts, so we believe there will always be a long-term demand for high quality property.

Ramadoss: An analysis of Colliers International’s Q3 2009 foreign ownership house price index suggests prices for properties under construction in Downtown Burj Dubai increased by 15 per cent, while excluding this, the index contracts. This is essentially the premium assigned to the development approaching completion which got captured. While prices appeared to have bottomed out in general, these are not clear signals of a complete turnaround as prices could track down should there be a market- wide contraction. Hence, it would be appropriate to buy if the intention is to have a stable income potential or to bet on the extent of premium that is still left to be priced.

Do you believe the tower offers a good investment proposition for long-term inventors?

Atwell: The Burj Dubai is well located, being within close proximity of the existing and future key CBD areas – DIFC, Sheikh Zayed Road and Business Bay. It is also well serviced by other amenities, including surrounding hotels, Souk Al Bahar and Dubai Mall. The Burj Dubai is an iconic building and will be the tallest man-made structure ever built. It is in a prime location and forms the centrepiece of Downtown Dubai, a large-scale masterplan development that will include more than 30,000 residential units, Dubai Mall, nine hotels and commercial space. The building itself will contain 175-key Armani hotel plus Armani Apartments, an additional 700 apartments and office space, although how much remains unclear. Iconic buildings are attractive to both investors and occupiers. However, the building’s success will ultimately depend on the supply and demand dynamics in the market, pricing and the underlying property fundamentals. Other key factors will include the operational efficiency of the building, which is dependent on but not limited to the building management system, lifts, parking, accessibility, public transport and how the strata management company is run.

Green: Returns on quality assets are there to be had, but investors need to start taking a more long-term view on property and move away from the speculative model that has evolved in Dubai. When choosing an asset to invest in, it is important to select a product that has a genuine lasting prospect for returns. The Burj Dubai will offer a prestigious address within the world’s tallest tower, a superior product quality, world-class facilities, and, importantly, it should also be well managed. All these factors would suggest the long-term prospects for investors are relatively solid, assuming a fair price is paid.

Hamaizia: Prices of property situated in proximity to, or that are a part of any signature or world famous building tend to hold value (long term) or are semi-immune to economics or exogenous shocks… be it London, Paris, New York or Dubai for that matter (due to views, footfall/tourism, shopping or financial districts or interest in that structure from an arts or architectural perspective).

Alwadiya: The Burj Dubai tower has all the factors that will set it for success: iconic design, excellent location, exceptional finishes, first-rate facilities, fantastic mix of assets. Any investment in a tower of this calibre is viable now and will continue to be well into the future.

Riley: Investors with long-term investment horizons have generally done well from property across most international markets, but as we have recently seen both residential and commercial property markets are subject to cycles, which can have some large swings. As the market becomes more established in Dubai, cycles should start to stretch longer and become less volatile. Previously speculative gains were driving the market, but we expect to see investment returns at much lower levels than those seen during the construction phase. One of the core tenets of property investment is its lower risk nature, but ultimately this equates to lower returns. Good quality property should deliver stable investment income with some capital appreciation, which is what long-term investors are generally looking for.

Ramadoss: Such towers often get a prestige value attached to them and would be a low-risk/low-return investment option as they tend to be pricey. The advantage is in its lower volatility as prices tend to contract at a smaller multiple relative to the market, as is the case with a typical ultra high-end developments. However, one needs to assess the extent of premium by comparing it with peer developments across the globe as in the current scenario, it could attract speculative interests as well.

What kind of appreciation can one expect in the long term, say five to 10 years?

Atwell: Capital growth is dependent on both rents and yields, which are in turn affected by numerous other factors. We cannot forecast anticipated appreciation over the long term. However, we would anticipate yields will sharpen from the double digit expected returns that we see today.

Green: If we consider the rapid change in Dubai over the last five years, then you can see the pitfalls of predicting the future in such an un-transparent environment. The Dubai market needs a period of stability so that investors can start to regain some of the confidence lost as a result of the downturn. Only after this is achieved can we really start to look for any level of price growth.

Hamaizia: As aforementioned, real estate history of the New Yorks, Singapores and Londons of this world, have always seen a stable recovery (back to at least 75-85 per cent of peak times within five years), when infrastructure, employment, investment and other city value-adding activities are taking place, supporting or present.

Alwadiya: The Burj is by far one of the best investments currently available for those investors who are able to wait for capital growth as opposed to initial return on investment per annum. It is likely that we will see a significant increase in the amount of unit trading following the tower launch in January. The Burj will continue to retain its value after its launch, and will increase its financial value/appreciate over time with an estimated rate of 10-15 per cent per annum. If you compare its price to the different towers around the world that once held the title of “the tallest”, you will see that they still today command an average price of over Dh10,000 per square foot. This is a far cry from what we are experiencing in today’s market where we are seeing the Burj command a price of less than half that amount.

Riley: We expect the level of capital appreciation to be relatively moderate in the short term. Over a five to 10 year horizon, we would normally expect moderate capital appreciation of perhaps five per cent per annum for this type of property, but this also depends on economic factors and conditions such as inflation. Generally speaking, Dubai’s residential and commercial properties are both linked to the economic cycle, perhaps more so than established markets, because the population base is more transitory. So this is a consideration for investors. Ultimately the ‘buy to let’ investor group will determine the market value so rents should establish the valuation floor.

Ramadoss: Longer-term price appreciation would tend to reflect the market level price appreciation. However, the price behaviour would be similar to the performance of a low beta stock comparedto the market average price change.

Brokers Must Adopt Fresh Approach

Despite the barrage of articles and opinions depicting economic doom and gloom of a mammoth scale, reports of tumbling property values, double-digit percentages losses by developers and property investors (the list goes on), no one is paying attention to the current state of the brokerage industry. The remaining standing companies still believe that, if things are done differently, with a client-centric philosophy, an incisive fact- based approach and a clear set of realistic objectives and values derived from truly objective assessments, the existence of real opportunities in the UAE real estate scene to create and build for the long-term was undeniable.

Pre-2008 saw all manner of people get into the real estate brokerage industry. The lucrative and easy to make commissions were too attractive to ignore. That is fine since there is nothing wrong in wanting to (legally) better yourself or income. But many thought their skills alone were what brought in results – none more so than the plethora of salespeople, who flocked to the field, many of whom were not familiar with properties.

Now, as the UAE property market matures through its first crisis, the nature of selling and buying realty is changing irreversibly and with it a lot of new industry and consumer trends are emerging, one of which is the lack of satisfaction of customers with real estate brokers. According to a survey conducted by Harbor Real Estate in October 2009, 61 per cent of consumers who bought property in the last two years are dissatisfied with the performance of real estate agents who brokered their purchases. What we have here is an indicator that brokerage companies need to shape up in order to survive during and beyond the financial crisis. The level of proficiency in effective consultancy, based on sound knowledge of the market and an understanding of the buyer’s requirements, appears to be the main shortcoming. Buyers today have choice and are more knowledgeable about the market, and they seek advice from professionals whom they feel they can trust. Unfortunately, in the majority of cases, consumers are left feeling disappointed. This lack of trust is producing a lot of challenges for property brokers, including questioning of their standard commission rates, lack of sole representation or appointment and negative pre-judgment and perceptions.

The main concern is that these problems are not only affecting bad and illegal freelance brokers only but also impacting the professional and experienced brokers and overall reputation of the industry as well.

Traditionally, real estate has been viewed as a sales industry. The scenario is radically different in today’s environment. Customers have evolved to become more educated, better informed, more value conscious and demand more for their dirhams. Their expectations of the companies and the brokers they buy or sell through are much higher. They are no longer willing to be pushed around by unprofessional brokers. In short, they want better customer service. So brokers have to work harder and spend more effort and time to regain the trust of buyers and sellers. They need to realise that true and sustainable success comes from repeat business and word-of-mouth.

Customer service is one of the greatest keys that can help real estate service providers succeed. It can literally make or break a company. This is so because the entire business, marketing, sales, leasing and profits depend on customers.

Great marketing can help brokerage companies acquire new customers, but it is great customer service that ensures that the customers keep coming back. According to our survey, most customers quit dealing with a certain brokerage company because of an indifferent attitude towards them from the business owner, managers and/or employees. A typical brokerage company will only hear from a handful of dissatisfied customers; most of the rest of the customers will just quietly go away and never come back. To further compound the problem, a typical dissatisfied customer will tell an average of seven to 10 people about his problem and the bad service offered by the company.

Pas du tout, encore une fois, si ce n’est pas à l’intérieur trop longtemps. Il y a un autre danger: il n’y a pas beaucoup d’espace et un mouvement négligent d’un tampon peut pousser plus lisez plus ici d’où il est plus difficile de l’obtenir. Mais il y a un moyen de ne pas verser un lit sans tampon: appuyez sur le diaphragme, puis la sélection sera temporairement bloquée sans “bouchons” externe.

Secondary Market Prices in Springs and Meadows Surge

Secondary market prices of properties in the Springs have increased in the range of 11-33 per cent since the beginning of this year, while prices in the Meadows have surged in the range of 16-19 per cent in the same period, according to a real estate firm.
Vineet Kumar, Head of Sales, Asteco said: “In Springs, two-bedroom villas currently sell for Dh1.5 million onwards, up 36 per cent from Dh1.1m at the beginning of this year. Three-bedroom villas start from Dh2.8m from Dh2.6m in January.
“In the Meadows, current prices for four-bedroom villas start from Dh3.8m, up 18.75 per cent from around Dh3.2m at the beginning of the year. Five-bedroom villas, meanwhile, are around Dh4.4m now, up 16.5 per cent from Dh3.8m on January prices.”
According to Asteco, in the fourth quarter of 2008, prices for two-bedroom villas in the Springs were around Dh1.75m. In Meadows, a four-bedroom villa was around Dh4.5m during the same period, while a five-bedroom villa was around Dh5.2m.
“Prices in the Springs and the Meadows have seen a quarter-on-quarter steep fluctuation owing to market conditions. It would seem that prices are trying to find stability in these developments and their current levels are trying to catch up with the third to fourth quarter prices of last year,” said Kumar.
He said prices were static in the first quarter and began to rise from the second and third quarter.
Claire Collier, Manager, In-Style Real Estate said: “Currently the average price of a three-bedroom villa in the Meadows is in the region of Dh3.9m and Dh5m. A four-bedroom villa in the Meadows is also in the region of Dh3.9m and Dh5.5m. A five-bedroom villa is currently around Dh5.9m to Dh7m.”
Mohanad Alwadiya, Director, Harbor Real Estate said: “Prices appear to have stabilised in the Springs and the Meadows largely due to the increase in demand.
“The residential market is currently being driven by a flight to affordable assets. The mid- to low-income earners, who were previously excluded from the market due to high prices, are now taking advantage of the new levels of affordability. Projects such as the Springs and the Meadows are in demand, with buyers taking advantage of prices which are anywhere between 35 per cent and 50 per cent lower than the peaks of 2008.”
“When it comes to sales, we have noted a small segment of owner-occupiers that are after building equity rather than wasting money on rent,” he said.
“Overall, although villas and townhouses demand a higher tag price compared to apartments, we believe the investors will still be interested in investing in villas due to the high demand and the high return on investment that these components have been delivering.”
Collier said the Meadows is geared more towards the end-user, since it has became more affordable. “The Springs is a mixture but still offers a good buy-to-let market and is the affordable choice for young families that require a garden area.
“Also, as an Emaar project, banks have been more inclined to lend on it. The Meadows and Springs are both older and more established communities, so when some projects were put on hold, buyers turned to these developments to move into as their homes.”