Property

Ask the agent

Can you explain the term capitalization rate?

Capitalisation rate (cap rate) is the rate of return on a real estate property based on the income that the property is expected to generate. It is used to estimate the investor’s potential return on investment. It maybe calculated by dividing the investment’s net operating income (NOI) by the current market value, where NOI is the total revenue derived from renting or leasing the property minus all operating costs. Put simply, the cap rate = NOl current market value. Given that the capital values for Dubai properties have shown greater volatility than the income being derived, the NOI being generated from the property at today’s value needs to be looked into. This allows us to see whether the property’s performance is improving or declining by referring to the cap rate. If the cap rate is declining, this leads us to conclude that selling the property would generate greater income.

Where do you think the best investment opportunities are in the Dubai real estate market?

Definitely in the affordable segment of the market!

We are encouraging clients to invest in this important segment as there are some great opportunities and the demand for affordable housing is likely to continue increasing as Dubai heads towards the Expo 2020. There are many affordable developments that have been sprouting in Dubailand and other parts of the city, especially in the outskirts. They are strategically located, with easy access to major road networks like the Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, thus residents enjoy fast transit times to most of Dubai’s popular areas. The demand for this type of affordable accommodation will continue to grow. invest in apartments and retain ownership for atleast five years to gain superior capital growth and enjoy healthy net annual rental return in the meantime.

Do you think the property prices will fall further in this current cycle? If so, would now be a good time to sell?

The fact that the property industry is notoriously cyclical is widely known yet viewed differently. Investors with a clear strategy and long-term plan simply accept, foresee and plan for cycles in the industry. They look for longer—term sustainable growth rather than take additional risk by trying to accumulate wealth by taking advantage of shorter-term spikes or dips. Investing in property has a very simple purpose: to create wealth over the long term. However, your portfolio needs to be nurtured, maintained and managed to ensure its wealth-creating potential is achieved as it rides the inevitable cycles that occur in the industry. Adopting a short-term vision and reacting unreasonably to inevitable industry slowdowns will lead to underperformance in the longer term. Consider engaging a good property manager who will ensure that you maximize returns.

I plan to purchase our first family home. What are the factors to consider when getting a mortgage?

There are a number of considerations that you need to factor into your plan of buying a home. One of these is getting a mortgage. Generally speaking, you are much better off financially in applying your hard-earned money towards building equity, but keep in mind that mortgage payments can be subject to fluctuations as interest rates rise. Not all mortgages are the same. Try and have the mortgage establishment fees waived. Depending on the institution, this may save you up to Dh3,000. Also request that you are not penalized for paying the mortgage down faster or in its entirety. By law, the mortgage provider cannot charge you more than 1% of the outstanding amount or a maximum of Dhl0,000, but try to have this stipulation dropped from your contract. Make sure your provider will allow you to utilize the equity you build in your home over time. Some lenders will allow you to use this as security for further borrowing.

Question of the week

I am buying an off-plan property. Can you explain the principles of escrow?

An escrow can be described as a legally recognized financial instrument held by a third party (typically a bank) on behalf of two other parties (typically a buyer and a seller) who have agreed to conduct a particular transaction in accordance with certain conditions. Funds are provided by the buyer and held by the party (bank) providing the escrow service until it receives the formal advice that certain previously agreed obligations of the seller have been fulfilled upon which time, the seller can receive funds to the amount specified in the agreement between the seller and buyer.

The use of escrow accounts by Dubai developers has now been mandated by law for the purpose of protecting the prepayments made by buyers. This limits developers from gaining access to funds until certain construction milestones are completed, helping ensure developers are not misappropriating funds provided in advance for purposes other than which they are intended.

Anybody can open an escrow account but not anybody can open one for the purposes of property development in Dubai. The developer must first be registered as a bona fide developer with RERA which involves providing documents ranging from those which establish the bona fide nature of the developer including details of its officers and solvency, title deeds proving ownership of the land to be developed, NOC from relevant parties to performance guarantees.

Ask the agent

Q1) There are many opportunities invest in off-plan properties, but the values in the secondary market have improved signiﬁcantly. Are there still advantages of buying off-plan?

Purchasing a property off-plan can provide you with superior capital gains by the time of completion, providing you are buying at a discount to today’s finished inventory and the market strengthens up to the completion date for the particular property that you are considering. This will depend on an estimation of economic growth, population expansion, the number of competing projects in the pipeline and eventual industry inventory position. Be smart about the “product” that you buy and try to avail yourself of a payment plan. Look for certain property types complete with amenities and facilities in locations you believe will be sought in the future. Deal only with reputable developers and check the status of the escrow account.

Q2) I am planning to invest in Dubai real estate.As this would be my ﬁrst property investment, can you give any useful tips?

First of all, know why you want to invest in property. You must have a clear understanding of what you are trying to achieve and what role your property portfolio will play in building your wealth. Then you must set your financial objectives carefully. Success in property investment can only be attained when (and if) those objectives have been realised. Always think long term for your greatest success. Those who have had the greatest success possess the ability to think long term, make rational, well-researched and carefully thought-out decisions with the end objectives in mind and understand that every real estate industry globally will go through cycles of growth and contraction. Make sure you know your-stuff by being able to communicate intelligently and knowledgeably with the experts. Always strive to eliminate risks. Plan your finances, cash flows, capital requirements and debt levels carefully.

Q3) I wish to sell my villa, but the garden needs a little bit of work. Is it worth investing in improving the garden? Am I likely to get my money back?

For your garden to become a selling point, you need to establish a low-maintenance, functional landscape that is highly appealing to the potential buyer. Resist the temptation to clutter the landscape with every species of flora known to man. Plants grow and you need to keep that growth in check as your garden can look unkempt and create a negative impression. Ensure that all landscaping elements must be coordinated carefully. if you don‘t know or understand the differing qualities of certain soils, it’s time to call your landscape gardener and have him produce an impressive garden for you. Even if you don’t plan on selling your home for another five or 10 years, now is a good time to lay the foundation for a great landscape design that will win over your future homebuyers.

Q4) While the correction in the Dubai property market is broad, certain segments have undergone a greater correction than others. Are there greater-opportunities in some segments in terms of long-term ROI?

Definitely! We are encouraging everyone to invest in the lower priced, higher value, affordable segment of the market as there are some great opportunities. There are many high-performing, yet affordable developments spread all across Dubai, giving investors a wide range of options to choose from. Apartments in some developments have seen excellent capital growth with some residences growing by 35%-over the past two years, with rental premiums of at least 7% not uncommon. Demand for this type of affordable accommodation continues to grow especially as Dubai’s population swells in the run-up to the Expo. invest in an apartment and retain ownership for at least five years as you will benefit from superior capital growth and enjoy a healthy net annual rental return.

Question of the week

Q5) Recent reports have suggested that the current property correction in dubai has bottomed. Would you agree with this and is it a good time to buy?

It is always difficult to pick peaks and troughs in real estate cycles.
Having said that, there are definitely opportunities available and advantages to be gained from purchasing now as the next few years are expected to see strong economic growth. Start your property search immediately as a property investment requires the same approach regardless of the state of the market. lf you have the cash, pay for it outright, but do consider taking out a mortgage as long as you understand the impact of interest rate rises in the future. Think carefully about location, surrounding infrastructure, construction quality, and developer reputation and building amenities. Properties with attractive views, close to the beach, with golfing facilities, are part of an iconic development and have close access to the Metro generally provide good returns. You also need to consider the effectivity of the owners association, the service charges and the quality of maintenance services as these will affect the long-term value of your investment. Be purposeful, patient and pragmatic and you are well on the way to making a very good investment decision.

When your property yield is not enough

Post-recession, investors take greater risks to generate goal-satisfying yields

Dubai’s property rental yields have always been strong when compared to countries where rental income is taxed at high rates. With a market that boasts an average gross yield of around 7.0%, it has stood as a beacon for those who appreciate the structural and regulatory developments it has undertaken which decrease the risk perception associated with investing in the market.

What is gross yield? It is the income of an investment prior to deduction of expenses expressed as a percentage. It only measures the income as a percentage of the original purchase price and does not reflect the significant effects of underlying fluctuations in underlying asset values.

The ratio can reveal how accurately market factors were comprehended, analysed, forecasted and modelled when planning a particular development. It can highlight inefficient and costly construction methods and techniques, future price/revenue adjustment opportunities, and new segment or geographic concentration opportunities. It can reveal superior (or inferior) sales, branding and marketing techniques, or superior product attributes. It can highlight impending revenue and eventual margin pressure where yields appear a little too extravagant when compared to the market, or even highlight where an industry is with regard to its cycle.

The expectations of net yield will pressure gross yield and the cost of resources required to generate that gross yield. In times of tight supply, inefficiencies in construction, administration, maintenance and operating methodologies are hidden because elevated gross yields driven by excessive market demand are likely to drive acceptable net yields. But the real test of an effective yield management is when supply exceeds demand.

The capitalisation rate (or cap rate) of a property also comes into play. It is the rate of return on a property based on the income that the property is expected to generate. It is used to estimate the potential return of an investment. It may be calculated by dividing the net operating income (NOI) of the investment by its current market value, where NOI is the total revenue derived from renting or leasing the property, less all operating costs.

Put simply, cap rate = net operating income / current market value.

Given that the capital values of properties in Dubai have shown greater volatility than the income being derived from them, we need to look at the NOI being generated from the properties at today’s value. This allows us to see whether a certain property’s wealth-generating performance is improving or declining by referring to the cap rate. If the cap rate is declining, it may lead us to conclude that selling the property and reinvesting elsewhere will generate greater income even if the gross or net yield still looks very impressive.

Cap rates are used when establishing a client’s property portfolio. Real estate firms determine the lowest cap rate that the client should accept to make the investment worthwhile. Typically, they suggest a cap rate of between 5% and 10% depending on expectations of asset value fluctuations. As revenues are typically locked in courtesy of rental contracts for at least 12 months or up to five years for commercial leases, the ability to accurately forecast the potential and likely shifts in property asset values will be essential to establish realistic cap rates and form longerterm portfolio strategies.
There is another useful application of the cap rate. When you divide 100 by the estimated cap rate, you arrive at an estimate, expressed in years, which will provide an indication of the payback period of the investment. Caution must, however, be used when using this ratio, and it must be reviewed periodically as the underlying asset value and the revenues generated from the asset will always exhibit different rates of volatility

Reletting property to a new tenant

Entering a unit vacated by an absconding tenant could be illegal without obtaining court approval

I think the tenant of my property has left the country without paying several months’ rent. What do I need to do to re-let the property to a new tenant?

If you have determined that the tenant has left the country, you will need to send him a 30 days official written notice for non-renewal/ payment of rent. As you are unlikely to receive a reply from your absent tenant, you should also ale a case against him at the Rent Disputes Committee. It will hear your concern and help you to gain legal access to your property by sending a representative to open the property. (You will have to arrange and pay for any locksmith charges).

You must not enter the property prior to legal access being granted as you will be in violation of the law. This is an important point to note as many landlords feel that, because they own the property, they have automatic right of entry. This is not the case when there is a current tenancy agreement in place.

The representative will make a schedule of belongings which have been left by the absconding tenant and you will have to store these at your cost for three months upon which time they can be auctioned and the revenues can be paid to cover your expenses and any shortfalls in compensation.

As soon as the apartment is ready for rent to a new tenant, you’ll have to settle any outstanding utilities and prepare it for re-renting. The case against the tenant will remain on ale and, if he should return to the UAE, you can pursue him through legal channels and claim all your losses.

As always, we recommend you engage professionals to help you deal with recalcitrant tenants and any claims you may have against them.

I plan on investing-in a property within the next four months to take advantage of the current lower prices. Can you advise on where I should invest?

There is no doubt that the affordable segment in Dubai is showing lots of promise as these properties will be in high demand as Dubai’s population growth gains momentum on the back of a period of expected strong economic growth leading up to the end of the decade.

Properties located in non-prime areas such as Dubailand continue to do very well and represent great value at today’s prices. With the current market correction in full swing we have witnessed the more affordable or secondary areas of the market continue to provide superior total returns for investors.

Examples of affordable projects that are providing good rental returns and expected capital appreciation are the Sky courts project and the adjacent QPoint project. An apartment in Sky courts have proven to be very popular with tenants and investors alike and has historically seen excellent capital growth with some apartments growing by 20 to 25 per cent over the past 24 months with rental premiums of at least 7 percent not uncommon. Purchasing an apartment at Sky courts has been made even been made more affordable with the developer offering units, some with existing and reliable tenants, with a very attractive easy payment plan.

QPoint, although recently released is also attracting rental yields of 6 per cent to 7 per cent. At the moment, apartments in Q Point are being valued between Dh685-Dh750 per square foot, representing fantastic value for this new development.

Demand for this type of affordable accommodation will continue to grow as Dubai’s population swells in the run up to the Expo and the demand for well located affordable housing increases.

There is no doubt that real estate values have been declining for some time now. Has the market reached the bottom and do you think now is the time to buy?

If you are considering purchasing a property, there are deﬁnitely opportunities available and advantages to be gained from purchasing now. The market has been cooling for around a year now, but is expected to pick up again in 2016 as the next five years are expected to see strong economic growth in the Dubai. Picking the exact timing is always difficult but it is better to be early rather than late.

Start your property search immediately as a property investment requires the same approach and set of considerations regardless of the state of the market and proper due diligence can take time.

Know what you can afford. If you have the cash, I suggest you pay for it outright. However, don’t be afraid to take out a mortgage. Make sure that you consider the many and varied easy payment plans that are currently on offer as many of these plans will save you considerable amounts of money.

Think carefully about location, surrounding infrastructure, construction quality, and developer reputation and building amenities. Properties which are close to the beach, with a sea view, a golf course view or part of an iconic development such as Downtown usually provide good returns. If you have close access to the metro, even better.

You also need to consider the effectiviness of the Owners Association, service charges and the quality of maintenance services as these will have an effect on the long term value of your investment. Finally, be purposeful, persistent, patient and pragmatic in your approach and you are well on the way to making a very sound decision.

Gulf News Freehold – Expert Eye

Why invest in real estate

before 2016?

The opportunities that have emerged so far will be too good to pass up

There have been a number of reports recently estimating the effect of the correction on Dubai’s real estate market. The most recent forecast shows a reduction of anywhere between 10% and 20% by the end of 2015.

The opportunities that have emerged so far in 2015 and will continue to emerge as the year progresses will be too good to pass up. Why is this, you ask? Oil prices are not expected to go anywhere soon. The decline of the Russian ruble has effectively made offshore investing too expensive. There is a growing oversupply, and the inevitable interest rate increases on the US dollar and its dirham cousin will further hamper liquidity. While these considerations are valid and worth considering, we need to put our positive hat on for a while.

Put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5% annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the Expo 2020. The event alone is expected to drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that currently do not exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4 million people by 2020; a 7% annual increase from today’s 2.25 million.

While the price of oil is a big issue for the region’s economies, the effect of the decline in oil prices is not as drastic as some may think. The Dubai economy is being driven by fundamentals such as tourism and trade, and a slew of projects to grow these important revenue-generating economic segments. Dubai has attracted almost 12 million visitors in 2014, continuing a growth trend of approximately 9% per annum since 2010.

And those visitor numbers will seem paltry once the Expo kicks off. Hosting the event will provide additional impetus for the industry to enjoy continued growth and the predictable surge in demand for accommodation and commercial space of all types.

We all know that the ongoing speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s intention to raise interest rates is making many people nervous. However, we can be sure that interest rates in the US will eventually rise and the dirham will continue to get stronger. To invest in a market that is undergoing a 10% to 20% correction in a currency that is certain to appreciate only makes sense, especially when finance is still cheap and will remain so for quite some time to come.

While on the topic of certainty, there is no doubt that a stabilized real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of signiﬁcant economic and commercial activity over the next ﬁve to seven years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate expected rapid population growth associated with the Expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall.

Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. For Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations.

Talking of alternatives, there is an array of asset choice which has not been seen for some time. The availability of off-plan purchases with highly lucrative payment plans is unprecedented. There are investment opportunities in every segment of the market supported by the most affordable payment plans.

This year will be remembered as a year of the astute investor. Don’t miss out.

Why it is a good time to buy property in Dubai

The market has been cooling for around a year now,

but is expected to pick up again in 2016

I receive so many questions regarding the current state of the market and whether now would be a good time to buy. My answer is invariably yes, especially as the market has become attractive with opportunities available and advantages to be gained from purchasing now.

The market has been cooling for around a year now, but is expected to pick up again in 2016 as the next five years are expected to see strong economic growth in Dubai. Picking the exact timing is always difficult but it is better to be early rather than late and starting early will be a prime determinant of your success.

I recommend you start your property search immediately as a property investment requires the same approach and set of considerations regardless of the state of the market and proper due diligence can take time. You are embarking on a major purchase which has the potential to affect your life in either an extremely positive or negative way. So you need to make a timely decision, not a hasty one.

Be critical in determining what you can afford. If you have-the cash, I suggest you pay for your new purchase outright. However, don’t be afraid to take out a mortgage… just be sure you fully understand what mortgage ‘repayments are going to do to lifestyle and whether you are prepared to make some sacriﬁces to own your own property. Make sure that you consider the many and varied easy payment plans that are currently on offer as many of these plans will save you considerable amounts of money.

Think carefully about location, surrounding infrastructure, construction quality and developer reputation and building amenities. Properties which are close to the beach, with a sea view, a golf course view or part of an iconic development such as Downtown usually provide good returns. If you have close access to the Metro, even better.

When buying an apartment, you also need to consider the efﬁcacy of the owners’ association, costs associated with service charges and the quality of maintenance services as these will impact the long-term value of your investment. Finally, be purposeful, persistent, patient and pragmatic in your approach and you are well on the way to making a sound decision.

Boost your portfolio

By Mohanad Alwadiya

Long-term planning is paramount to maximize financial gains

I have a property portfolio consisting of a mix of one and two-bedroom apartments in Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Dubai Marina. How can I capitalize on opportunities that arise as the World Expo 2020 draws near?

You need to seek professional advice. Many landlords across Dubai are bound to miss out on the revenue-generating opportunities that the Expo will bring because of poor or non-existent planning. A competent property manager will maximize your financial gains by providing an assessment of the opportunities and a strategy. Do not make the mistake of leaving your planning for too late. You will need to comprehend current and future market conditions and events, factors that may enable or inhibit revenue growth, inflation and cost increases as well as a complete understanding of financial modelling and the ever-developing area of industry policy and regulation. Depending on the size and complexity of your portfolio, you should have, as a minimum, a rolling five-year activity plan, which covers cost management and maintenance schedules, pricing and marketing, and tenant management and policy. A competent property manager will also provide you with communications and review schedules, as well as status and financial reporting.

There are a lot of opportunities to buy off-plan at the moment. How can I protect myself against buying an apartment of inferior quality?

Firstly, make sure that you are dealing with a reputable developer. A positive effect of the recession was that a lot of inferior developers were exposed and are no longer in business. Seek professional guidance — those in the industry have a good understanding of who the reputable developers are. Secondly, ask about the proactive measures taken to ensure the product is built to an acceptable standard and take the time to inspect the developer’s completed projects. Warranties and any quality assurance policies should be discussed in detail. Get the sales and purchase agreements reviewed by a professional so you have legal recourse should any issues arise. Upon completion you have the right to inspect your apartment and report any legitimate issues to the developer for rectification. Matters that can be remedied in the short term should be fixed immediately. Remember, once you have taken ownership of the apartment, the developer is obliged to fix any issues that may arise for 12 months following the transfer of ownership.

Mohanad Alwadiya is Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate and advisory board member and instructor at the Dubai Real Estate Institute, the official training and certification arm of the Dubai Land Department.

Gulf News Freehold – Ask the Agent

I bought a studio in 2008 financed by a lending firm. Since it is not furnished yet, my lawyer told me to cancel the SPA but the lending firm did not agree.

Visit RERA ﬁrst to sort out the registration issue in Oqood as this is a prerequisite to any further action. Once the property is registered, meet with the lending company. Explain to them that you would like to terminate the finance agreement due to project delay. They will share with you the status of your liability. You then need to obtain compensation from the developer for the delay. Appoint a lawyer to determine if your contract has the proper compensation clause to support your case. If so, plot a course of action to receive what is rightfully yours under the contract. From the information you have provided, it appears that once the course of action is determined, you need to engage all parties and alert them of your intentions. It is then a case of you and your lawyer taking the necessary legal steps to resolve it.

I have an apartment that I have let through an agent. Despite numerous reminders, the agent has refused to pay me. What actions can I take?

The issue here is that you allowed the checks to be issued under the agent’s name. There is no reason to have allowed this and, unfortunately, the decision to do so has placed you in a vulnerable position.

I am not sure of the details of the contract that you have with your agent, but unless you have a proper property management agreement in place with a licensed property management firm, you should never allow the checks to be issued under the agent’s name.

Even if you have a property management agreement, you should stipulate that all cheques be issued in your favour and the property management firm is authorised to receive, issue receipts and bank the cheques into your account.

I am afraid your only option is to hire a legal consultant and go to court and file a legal case against the agent.

My husband and I bought an unfinished penthouse from a non-Emirati guy. Does he have to register it first so he can sell it?

Whatever happens, the penthouse must be registered first. Nothing can happen to affect the legal transfer of ownership of a property unless it is registered first. With regard to MOUs, they come in different formats with different content to suit the particular transaction at hand and each party’s wishes. If you want to ensure that it is legally binding, l suggest you hire a lawyer to draft it for you. Once the property is registered, you should visit the Dubai Land Department office or any of the trustee transfer offices and conduct the transfer of the property there. It appears to me that you have limited experience in concluding a property transaction such as this. My best advice for you is to hire a professional property consultant to take you through this journey in a professional and smooth manner.

I want to modify and extend my villa. What are the documents required and the procedures to be followed when it comes to making alterations?

You need to establish that the amendments do not threaten the structural integrity or safe habitation of your villa by you or by future owners should you decide to sell it one day. Therefore, you should prepare the architectural and MEP drawings for the proposed concept. These need to be viewed in conjunction with the architectural and MEP “as—built drawings” by different authorities and regulatory bodies to ensure the proposed designs are structurally sound and meet the building codes. You need to obtain NOCs from the owners association, zoning authorities, Civil Defence and even the project developer and DEWA. If the renovation is extensive, you may be required to have the work inspected by the Civil Defence and the Building Department. Your architect or contractor can arrange for all approvals on your behalf. Engage professionals who can achieve this for you.

I know that the market has slowed but is the slowdown being experienced across the board, or do some areas still look promising?

There is no doubt that the affordable segment in Dubai still shows a lot of promise. The properties In this segment will be in high demand as the emirate’s strong population continues to grow on the back of a strong recovery.

Properties located in non-prime areas continue to do very well. With the recovery in real estate going from strength to strength, we have witnessed the more affordable or secondary areas of the market continue to do well.

The demand for this type of affordable accommodation has been growing steadily as Dubai’s population swells in the run-up to the Expo and the demand for affordable housing increases.

Examples of affordable projects that are providing good rental returns and expected capital appreciation are the Skycourts and Queue Point located in Dubailand.

Other affordable residential destinations are the International Media Production Zone, International City and Discovery Gardens. These established communities offer a wide range of housing options for families and singles alike.

There is also the new project Town Square offering “value” apartments to newcomers in the city and families.

Property Weekly

July 2015: Where are we?

For the past six months, headlines have been making many and varied references to a real estate correction in Dubai. This is not surprising as indeed Dubai’s real estate industry is in the midst of one. Many view the term correction with suspicion and trepidation, particularly those with a more tactical and less strategic short-term point of view.

Those who take a long-term perspective look at a correction with anticipation as it refers to the elimination of systemic issues and making the necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market.

There is no doubt that a correction was overdue. The year 2013 will be remembered as Dubai’s comeback year as the total value of real estate transactions reached Dh234 billion, a 52 per cent increase on 2012, which was clearly unsustainable as witnessed when the correction began last year when Dh218 billion worth of real estate assets were sold, a reduction of over Dh16 billion on the previous year. At the time of writing, just over Dh63 billion worth of transactions has taken place this year, indicating that the market is well and truly entered its correctional phase.

Changing cash flows

The market definitely benefited from high levels of liquidity during 2012 and 2013. Capital inflows seeking safe haven from regional conflicts were strong. However, they were sure to weaken and have. Geopolitical events such as the Ukraine conflict and subsequent economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West sent the rouble rapidly declining in value, making investing in Dubai an increasingly expensive proposition for Russians, who historically have been prevalent in the investing community.

In addition, changes to mortgage laws also dampened the availability of capital for investors wishing to use leverage to capitalise on attractive property valuations and the promise of high and sustainable rental yields.

Vying for investment

A slew of new projects being launched as a result of renewed developer optimism also placed pressure on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market wide. Initially, launches were made with prices for off plan units consistent and supportive to prices for completed units.

However, with each additional launch, competition for the investor money intensified, leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units and making the risk reward equation more palatable for off plan units versus completed units.

In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this – perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

The number of new launches has been impressive, leaving many to question whether over – exuberance on behalf of developers will result in a significant oversupply. Calculating optimal supply levels, especially when emerging from a recessionary period, is particularly challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for real estate assets that will emanate from Dubai’s population growth, which will be largely driven by overall economic growth. In addition, supply needs to factor in a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are completed and are released on to the market.

We at Harbor take a minimum five year view when looking at equilibrium or imbalances in the market. When taking into account the nature of its resurgence, the strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our five year forecast period.

Steady supply

There will be about 11,000 villas, 7,500 town houses and 35,000 apartments delivered between now and 2020. While this may seem a lot, remember that we are entering a period where demand for property – particularly those that are affordable is expected to rise signiﬁcantly and given average occupation rates are currently about 80-85 per cent, there is not much margin for error in terms of satisfying expected demand.

Put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5 per cent annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the World Expo 2020. The expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that don’t exist.

Much of the city’s planning estimates the number of people living in the emir ate to grow to 3.4 million by 2020 – a 7 per cent annual increase from today’s population of 2.25 million.

Expo led growth

There is no doubt that a stabilised real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next five to seven years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the Expo 2020, but is also an important factor in the development of Dubai’s economy. Every emerging market needs to develop a strong middle class, whose expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks.

In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively in the region and globally, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternative locations for their operations.

When taking this perspective, the correction could not have come at a better time.

Expert Eye – Gulf News

Home buying process explained

Purchasing a property in Dubai is relatively straightforward yet, as with the purchase of any property anywhere, there is a series of checks and requirements that must be completed to ensure a successful and issue-free transaction takes place.

Depending on a number of factors, it typically takes between two and six weeks to complete a property transaction.

Financial advisor. The first step is to consult a financial advisor who can help you determine what you can realistically afford.

Pre-approved mortgage. You should then obtain a pre-approved mortgage, if required. This is important as it can prevent any disappointment or embarrassment later on. .

Hiring a real estate broker. Then it is time to select a registered broker or agent. A good property broker will add value by finding the property that meets your requirements, saving you money, minimising your risk, ensuring you are legally compliant and providing you with peace of mind, allowing you to make the best decision possible.

Checking out available properties. Searching for the property of your dreams can be a frustrating and time-consuming experience.

While you can delegate this to your appointed property broker, I recommend you conduct your own search as well.

It will assist you in gaining an appreciation of what product is available in your budget range, where it is located and which facilities and amenities will be able to meet your needs.

It will also show you whether the property that you are seeking is rare or whether availability is high. This is important as it will affect your negotiating ability

Background checks. Once you have identiﬁed a property that is of interest to you, your broker should complete all the necessary background checks to ensure there are no impediments to a successful sale.

This would include establishing the ownership status of the property (is it mortgaged?), the occupation of the property, the availability of the owner to negotiate and conclude the transaction, among several other factors.

Making an offer. Assuming all is in order, you may proceed to make an offer.

Memorandum of understanding. Once your offer has been accepted, you will need to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) which details the terms, costs and responsibilities of both parties as agreed.

You will then provide a deposit of 10 per cent of the purchase price of the property.

Property valuation. If you have applied for a mortgage on the property, your bank will be informed as to your intentions and will carry out a valuation on the property. The inspection is typically completed by a third party engaged by the bank to provide professional property valuations.

‘No Objection Certiﬁcate.’ Assuming all is in order and the bank gives the go-ahead, the seller will apply for a “No Objection Certiﬁcate” (NOC) from the developer.

Make an appointment at the DLD. An appointment is then made with the Dubai Land Department (DLD) to complete the transfer. The seller, buyer, their respective agents and, if necessary, their bank representatives all attend to formalise the transfer. When all documents have been checked and details have been registered, and you have paid the seller of the property, the agency commissions, and 4 per cent transfer fee (plus Dh315) to the DLD, you will receive the title deed.

You can then start celebrating. Your dream house is now in your hands!