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مطورون وملاك يمتنعون عن تخفيض أسعار الوحدات بالمشروعات المكتملة

يوسف العربي (دبي) امتنع مطورو وملاك الوحدات السكنية في دبي عن تخفيض أسعار البيع بمشروعاتهم العقارية المكتملة، رغم هدوء التداولات، مستفيدين من ارتفاع العوائد الاستثمارية واستقرار نسبة الإشغال، بالإضافة إلى توقعاتهم بحدوث طفرة مستقبلية في الطلب في غضون الاثني عشر شهراً المقبلة. وقالوا: إن العائد على الاستثمار العقاري في دبي واصل ارتفاعه ليسجل 7% بقطاع المكاتب و8% للسكني، وصولاً إلى 12% وإلى 15% للمستودعات ومساكن العمال مطلع العام الحالي، مقارنة بالفترة ذاتها من العام الماضي. وأشاروا إلى أن شريحة كبيرة من ملاك العقارات في دبي يرفضون تخفيض أسعار البيع، ويفضلون الاحتفاظ بوحداتهم العقارية في الوقت الراهن، للاستفادة من هذه العوائد الإيجارية المرتفعة. واستمرت كبريات شركات تطوير عقاري في دبي، منها دبي إعمار ونخيل ودبي للعقارات وداماك، في طرح مشروعات جديدة وفق معدلات الأسعار المعتمدة في المشروعات السابقة دون تغيير. وقال إسماعيل الحمادي، المؤسس والمدير العام لمؤسسة «الرواد» لاستشارات تطوير المشاريع، إن شريحة من المشتريين تحاول ممارسة بعض الضغوط على الملاك ومطوري العقارات لتخفيض أسعار الوحدات العقارية بدعوى استقرار الطلب، مستندين في ذلك لبعض التقارير العقارية. وأضاف أن المطورين والملاك لم يخضعوا من جانبهم إلى مثل هذه الضغوط لعدة أسباب، والتي يأتي في مقدمتها احتفاظ السوق العقاري بدبي بمقومات النمو المستدام التي تضمن له تجديد الطلب على نحو مستمر، بالإضافة إلى تمتعهم بعوائد استثمارية قياسية تراوح بين 7 % إلى 15% حسب نوع المشروع، وهي عوائد لا يمكن تحقيقها في أي سوق عالمي آخر في الوقت الراهن. وأشار الحمادي إلى أن المستثمرين في قطاع المستودعات، على سبيل المثال، يحققون حالياً عوائد إيجارية تصل إلى 15% سنوياً، فيما تحقق الاستمارات في القطاعين المكتبي والسكني 7% و8% على التوالي. وأضاف أنه في ظل استمرار تدفق الإيرادات الإيجارية وتمتع شركات التطوير العقاري والملاك باحتياطات نقدية كبيرة تم تكوينها على مدار السنوات الماضية، فإنهم يفضلون الاحتفاظ بهذه العقارات وتأجيرها لحين تحقيق قفزات سعرية متوقعة مع اقتراب استضافة الإمارة للحدث العالمي إكسبو 2020. ووفق تقرير «دائرة الأراضي والأملاك في دبي»، بلغ إجمالي قيمة التصرفات العقارية في دبي 267 مليار درهم، خلال عام 2015، فيما بلغت قيمة المبايعات العقارية نحو 130 مليار درهم. وتفوقت منطقة «الخليج التجاري» على باقي المناطق من حيث تصرفات الوحدات العقارية بعدد 3212 صفقة قيمتها 4.95 مليار درهم، تلتها منطقة «الحبيه الرابعة» بعدد صفقات قدره 3080 (2.57 مليار درهم)، في حين جاءت منطقة مرسى دبي (مارينا) ثالثاً مع صفقات بلغ عددها 3056، وقيمتها 6,24 مليار درهم. واعتبرت دائرة الأراضي والأملاك أن محافظة سوق العقارات في دبي على هذا الزخم لأعوام طويلة حتى الآن يدل على الجاذبية التي يتمتع بها، وقدرته المتواصلة على استقطاب المستثمرين من شتى أنحاء العالم، ما يعني أنه لا يزال من المرجح المحافظة على النمو المستدام لأعوام أخرى مقبلة. ومن جانبه، قال محمد تركي، مدير العقارات بشركة الوليد للعقارات ،التي تنشط في مجال بيع تطوير العقارات وبيعها وتأجيرها، إن الانخفاض في أسعار بيع العقارات لا يزال «ورقياً»، أي أنه لم يترجم على أرض الواقع في ظل صمود الملاك والمطورين وامتناعهم عن البيع بأسعار منخفضة. وقال تركي: إن الملاك لا يجدون أنفسهم مضطرين لبيع الوحدات السكنية أو التجارية المكتملة في الوقت الراهن بأسعار منخفضة، لاسيما في ظل استقرار العوائد الإيجارية عند مستويات مرتفعة ووصول نسبة الإشغال إلى معدلات قياسية تتراوح بين 92% و98%. وأوضح أن ملاك العقارات يستفيدون حالياً من عوائد سنوية على استثماراتهم في دبي تتراوح بين 6 و8% للقطاعين السكني والتجاري، لذلك فإن الاحتفاظ بهذه الوحدات والاستفادة من هذه العوائد التي لا تتوافر في أسواق عالمية أخرى، مثل لندن ونيويورك وسنغافورة، هو الأقرب إلى مصلحة الملاك. وارتفع العائد السنوي على الاستثمار العقاري بالدولة بشكل تدريجي خلال عامين، ليتراوح بين 8 و12% خلال النصف الأول من الحالي، مقابل 3% و6% خلال الفترة المماثلة من العام 2011. ويعتبر تحديد العائد على الاستثمار العقاري من الأمور الرئيسية لأي مستثمر، ويتم احتسابه من خلال احتساب نسبة إجمالي الحصيلة الصافية من الإيجارات، مقارنة بتكلفة البناء أو شراء العقار. وأضاف أنه في مقابل ذلك فإن مطوري العقارات يتمتعون بمستويات مقبولة من الطلب على مشروعاتهم، كما أن لديهم احتياطات نقدية كبيرة تم تكوينها على مدار سنوات، والأهم من ذلك أن شركات التطوير تؤمن بأن أسعار العقارات ستمضي إلى ارتفاع مطرد على مدار السنوات المقبلة، ما يدفعهم مجتمعين- ودون اتفاق- إلى تثبيت الأسعار وعدم تخفيضها. وتوقع تركي أن يحافظ السوق العقاري في دبي خلال لمرحلة المقبلة على مقومات النمو وقدرته على توليد الطلب، من دون حدوث انخفاضات كبيرة في أسعار البيع والإيجار، لاسيما في ظل الأداء القوي للقطاعات الاقتصادية في الدولة ومواصلة الشركات عمليات التوسع والتوظيف. العوائد المرتفعة تقوي موقف الملاك دبي (الاتحاد) أكد مهند الوادية، المدير الإداري لشركة «هاربو» العقارية والمحاضر بكلية دبي العقارية التابعة لدائرة الأراضي والأملاك، إن العوائد الإيجارية المرتفعة على الاستثمار العقاري في دبي تقوي موقف الملاك وتدفعهم للاحتفاظ بالوحدات المكتملة. وقال إن المستثمر العقاري في دبي بات أكثر نضجا وإدراكا بأهمية الاستثمار بالقطاع بطريقة الاستثمار طويل الأجل لذلك يلجا للاحتفاظ بالوحدة العقارية والاستفادة من عوائدها الإيجارية لحين ارتفاع الأسعار. وأوضح أن بعض التقارير العقارية التي تتحدث عن انخفاضات في معدلات الأسعار تستند في ذلك إلى مقارنات غير مقبولة لا تراعي نوع المشروع وموقعة، حيث اتجهت معظم الشركات العقارية في الدولة خلال الفترة الأخيرة إلى تطوير مشروعات جديدة في مناطق عمرانية جديدة بهدف توجيه هذه المشروعات لمتوسطي الدخل. وأضاف «دخول هذا النوع من المشروعات انخفض المعدل العام لأسعار العقارات وهو ما يعد أمرا طبيعيا ومتوقعا ولا يعني حدوث انخفاض حقيقي في المشروعات التي تتمتع بمعايير جيدة». لا تخفيضات في أسعار العقارات القائمة دبي (الاتحاد) أكد خالد بن كلبان، رئيس مجلس إدارة شركة الاتحاد العقارية، أن المطورين العقاريين في الدولة يتمتعون بسجلات حافلة مليئة بالإنجازات، مشيرا إلى أن الخبرات العريضة التي تكونت مع هذه النجاحات منحتهم الثقة في قدرة السوق المحلية استعادة النمو والانتعاش خلال دورات اقتصادية قصيرة. وأشار بن كلبان إلى أن تخفيض أسعار العقارات المطروحة للبيع يعد أسهل وسيلة وسيلة للمنافسة ورفع الحصة السوقية للشركة العقارية، إلا أن تداعيات هذه الممارسات وتأثيراتها على السوق تكون سلبية للغاية. وأضاف: إن المراقب للسوق العقارية في الدولة يجد أن المطورين العقاريين لم يخفضوا أسعار العقارات المكتملة فيما تنحصر انخفاضات المشروعات قيد التنفيذ في حدو 5% في إطار صفقات قوية للبيع تشمل عدد معين من الوحدات. وقال: إن الظروف المالية تختلف من مطور إلى آخر إلا أن الاكتفاء بمستويات الطلب الراهنة دون إجراء أية تخفيضات لاتزال الصفة الأعم، وذلك انطلاقا من إيمانهم بقدرة السوق على معاودة الانتعاش قريباً

2015 a year to remember!

The year 2015 will be remembered as the most important periods in Dubai’s real estate history. It demonstrated to the world that the real estate industry in the emirate has achieved a level of maturity that enabled it to successfully manage the significant challenges associated with being the hottest real estate market in the world without succumbing to what would have been an inevitable and resounding crash.

But crash it didn’t. The market in 2015 saw a slowdown which was managed and welcomed by all those who wished to see a market which enjoys healthy and sustainable growth rates.

So, what will 2015 be remembered for?

Well, the headlines that made continual references to the fact that there was a Real Estate correction will not be forgotten. Those who possess a more tactical, less strategic and shorter term point of view will view the year through a negative yet narrow lens while those who are taking the long term perspective, will view the year as one that saw the elimination of many systemic issues, addressing fundamental market imbalances and the implementation of necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market itself.

2015 will be remembered as the year that the mortgage rules implemented by the Central Bank and the increase in registration fees by the DLD really had full effect in helping to cool the market. It will also be remembered as the year that developers went to the “ideas bin” to create a myriad of different easy payment plans that, not only offered potential customers with an immediate and easier way to pay for off-plan properties, but also assisted in establishing new values for finished properties as well.

2015 saw a slew of new projects being launched, each one adding to the rapidly increasing on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market-wide. Each additional launch added to the competition for the investor dirham intensified leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units making the risk reward equation more palatable for off-plan units versus completed units.  In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this, perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

Which means that 2015 will also be remembered as the year when the market got serious about building affordable properties, mainly because of the rapid growth in Real Estate prices in preceding years, a dirham that was rapidly appreciating versus most major currencies due to geo-political issues in Russia, tanking of commodity (including oil of course) prices, unprecedented quantitative easing in Europe, surprise downward revaluations of the Chinese Yen along with the imposition of capital controls and the imminent and the most talked about interest rate rise in US history. With global growth slowing and the strength economic recovery being questioned everywhere except for the US, Dubai faced the reality of simply being too expensive for its residents and too costly for its businesses. The cost of acquiring, owning and managing Real Estate plays a large role in determining the fiscal viability of both individuals and businesses in the emirate.

But 2015 will also be remembered as the year that was critical to the growth expected to be experienced in 2016. The price correction that was so much a part of 2015 in Dubai will bottom out in the early part of the year before the market starts to recalibrate. Population growth will drive demand going forward as, put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 4-5% annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo. The Expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that, by and large, don’t currently exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

There is no doubt that the market gyrations of 2015 will result in more stable real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next 5 to 7 years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the 2020 expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall. Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations.

When taking this perspective, 2015 will be seen as being at the forefront of the next period of growth for Dubai and will not be recalled as a year of stagnation, but rather as a year of laying the foundations for what may well be the most prosperous decade in the emirates history to date.

Ask the agent

Question: Which would be a better investment, buying a townhouse or an apartment?

This is a common dilemma faced by investors in the residential market. In the UAE where there is a great deal of variation in the properties on offer, making a choice becomes all the more difficult for those who are new to property investment.

Just remember that the market rarely moves uniformly. There is always a difference in the investment returns to be expected from different asset types, in different areas, at different stages of completion, over different periods of time, being completed by different developers.

So in today’s market, knowing what we know about Dubai’s economy going forward, I usually recommend to my clients to invest in affordable apartments or construct a portfolio of affordable apartments and townhouses, and even villas, as the case may be.

But do take note of the keyword here which is “affordable.”

Projects in Dubailand like Queue Point in Liwan and Skycourts are filling the affordable housing void and, if you wish to diversify asset types, I suggest you consider Shamal Terraces in JVC as this recently launched project offers very high quality but reasonably priced and extremely spacious modern townhouses.

Properties in the above communities offer good quality affordable solutions with little compromise and have the potential to provide excellent rental and capital appreciation returns as affordable housing will continue to be in high demand going forward due to the demand for such options among the middle and lower middle income segments in Dubai.

Question: I am interested in working for a real estate broker as I have extensive property experience in North America, but I don’t know which company to join. Can you please advise me on how I can find the best company to work for?

It appears that you are confident in your industry experience, and feel you can be a real asset to the company you will join. However, since the UAE market is also unique while sharing some general characteristics with global real estate hubs, I suggest you join a company that will enable you to fast track your learning and mastery of the UAE property market. Make no mistake, you still have a lot to learn; but having a good solid foundation of real estate principles should help you progress with greater speed.

Try to go for a full service company so that you can gain a greater understanding of what the local real estate business is all about, who the key players are, and the procedures you need to be familiar with.

The company you choose should value you as an individual and remunerate you appropriately. But they should also be prepared to invest in you by providing the types of learning experiences that come with formal training (mandatory to become a licensed agent in Dubai) and also in-house training. This may involve being assigned to a mentor, being placed on an internal rotation scheme to enable a broader knowledge of the business to be developed, or being given special projects that will facilitate your learning by encouraging you to seek answers and solutions yourself to enable you to complete the task at hand. Those companies that invest in high potential people are the ones that typically succeed.

Finally, it is very difficult to be passionate about your chosen profession if it is not part of the culture of the company that you work in. Try to surround yourself with people who are passionate about the industry because passion is contagious and it is what sets champions apart.

Question: I want to give my tenant one-year notice to vacate the flat. Is there a format and any other formalities? I sent him a notice through a courier company but he said it is not valid. Do I have to give it through the court?

You need a valid reason for requesting the tenant to vacate the premises. Is the tenant in breach of the tenancy agreement? Has the tenant broken the law by utilizing the premises for an unlawful purpose? Do you want to sell the property or occupy it yourself?

If your tenant is in breach of the tenancy agreement or has broken the law in some way, you must serve a 30-day notary public notice to the tenant. The notice must clearly state why the tenant is being given 30 days’ notice to fix the matter, and the details of the matter itself.  If the tenant does not respond in accordance to the request, then you can the landlord go to the Rental Dispute Settlement Center and request an eviction order.

If you want to sell the property or use it yourself, you will need to provide 12-months’ notice to the tenant through the notary public stating your intentions.  You may then refuse to renew any lease for a period that extends more than 12 months past the date of notification.

The notice should be delivered by courier, and it is important to keep record of the delivery report as evidence of receipt by the tenant as you may need this if the tenant refutes receiving your notice.

Question: Are we headed for another recession?

Even as there is an ongoing market-wide slowdown in real estate activity, my answer is NO, I do not believe that we are going to witness a crash any time soon. However, real estate price correction has been taking place which is not necessarily a bad thing.

The market has cooled for a number of reasons. For starters, the capital inflow that was extremely strong during the initial part of the recovery has started to slow down after reaching peak gains late in 2013. Capital is not an infinite resource, and will ebb and flow in accordance with supply and alternative investment.

Also, a number of structural changes have also started to crimp demand. The implementation of the 4% transfer fee, the implementation of new mortgage laws and new laws regarding rental price increases have also had an effect.

Although some people share a negative outlook on the way things are especially with the slower GDP growth compared to last year, for a country to be considered technically “in recession,” it has to experience two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth reflected in its GDP – which is definitely not the case with the UAE.

And given the history of the Dubai real estate market in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis and the dramatic, now infamous, sudden rise and then sharp decrease in asset values that occurred during the crisis, it is not surprising that some industry stakeholders have become nervous about the current state of affairs. While this point of view is understandable, Dubai 2015 is definitely not in the same position as it was in Dubai 2008.

Additionally, the UAE government, acting with strategic foresight, has Vision 2021, UAE’s long-term economic plan launched in 2010, which prioritizes the diversification of the country’s economy thereby reducing UAE’s dependence on hydrocarbon assets.

Question: I have a mortgage on an apartment that I live in and I happen to have some cash currently. Should I settle my loan or invest the cash elsewhere?

It all depends on what interest rate you are paying on your mortgage, and what return you could expect if you invested elsewhere. If you can achieve a return greater than your mortgage interest rate, then you should invest the cash elsewhere and take advantage of the low mortgage rate you will be getting.

There are some very attractive mortgage products in the marketplace with a few mortgage providers offering rates as low as 3.99% or even 3.49%. If you have a mortgage with such a low interest rate, it would not be too difficult to find an investment that will yield in excess of your mortgage rate.

For example, you may consider investing in an apartment  which will yield you a net annual cash flow of 5% and, over a period of 5 years, an annual capital appreciation of anywhere between 5% and 7%. This would be a more lucrative allocation of your cash.

If, however, you are not confident in achieving a return on your cash that exceeds your mortgage rate, then I suggest you pay down your mortgage outright as you will save on interest costs.

 

 

وداعاً 2015…أهلاً 2016

ها هو عام 2015 يقترب من نهايته، وفي واقع الحال فقد انتهى عام 2015 قبل عدة أشهر، حيث بدأت عملية التخطيط للعام الجديد في الربع الثالث من عامنا هذا إذا استثنينا بعض الشكليات المتبقية فلقد أصبح عام 2015 من الماضي.

ما الذي سنتذكره من عام 2015 .حسناً، لن ننسى جميعاً أهم العناوين التي تصدرت مختلف وسائل الاعلام وأشارت طوال الوقت إلى حقيقة وجود حركة تصحيحية في قطاع العقارات.
وبالنسبة لأولئك الذين يمتلكون وجهة نظر تكتيكية وأقل استراتيجية وذات مدى قصير، فسوف ينظرون إلى عام 2015 من عدسة ضيقة وسلبية ولكن بالنسبة لأولئك الذين يتمتعون بوجهة نظر طويلة الأمد فسوف ينظرون إليه على أنه عام التخلص من العديد من القضايا النسقية والتصدي للاختلالات في الأسواق الاساسية وتطبيق التعديلات الضرورية للتعامل مع تأثيرات القضايا الخارجية على أداء سير اسواق العقارات نفسها.

سنتذكر 2015 على أنه العام الذي شهد مساهمة وتأثير أنظمة الرهن العقاري والمطبقة من جانب «المصرف المركزي» والزيادة في رسوم التسجيل من جانب «دائرة أراضي دبي» في تهدئة اسواق العقارات.

وسنتذكر 2015 أيضا على أنه العام الذي شهد لجوء المطورين العقاريين إلى «سلة الأفكار» وذلك لخلق عدد لا يحصى من مختلف مخططات الدفع السهلة التي لا تمنح فقط العملاء المحتملين طريقة مباشرة وسهلة للعقارات التي ما زالت قيد الانشاء ولكن أيضاً ساعدت في التأسيس لقيم جديدة للعقارات الجاهزة أيضاً.

لقد شهد عام 2015 عدداً كبيراً من المشاريع التي اطلقت وكل منها يساهم في زيادة مستويات السيولة وبالتالي زيادة الأسعار على المستوى الإجمالي لسوق العقار.

وقد عمل كل مشروع تم إطلاقه على زيادة التنافسية بالنسبة للمستثمرين في الدرهم الإماراتي الذي شهد تصاعداً وتحسناً أدى إلى انخفاض تدريجي في أسعار الوحدات غير الجاهزة والذي بدوره أدى لوضع معادلة المخاطرة أكثر قبولا بالنسبة للوحدات غير الجاهزة مقارنة مع الوحدات الجاهزة.

علاوة على ذلك، إن التغير في تركيز المطورين عند استجابتهم للطلب على مزيد من الوحدات السكنية ذات التكلفة الميسورة يعني أيضا أن المستثمرين قد انجذبوا لهذا وربما كان هذا أهم تصحيح هيكلي في السوق حتى هذه اللحظة.

وما سبق يعني أن 2015 سيتم تذكره على أنه العام الذي شهد اهتماماً جدياً من السوق حول بناء العقارات التي تتصف بكونها في متناول غالبية الجميع وذلك يرجع بالتحديد إلى النمو السريع في أسعار العقارات في السنوات السابقة، وارتفاع قيمة الدرهم الإماراتي بشكل متسارع مقابل معظم العملات الأخرى نظرا للعديد من القضايا الجيوسياسية في روسيا، وتخزين الكثير من السلع (بما في ذلك النفط بالطبع)، والتسهيلات الكمية غير المسبوقة في أوروبا، وعمليات إعادة تقييم قيمة اليوان الصيني المفاجئة بالإضافة إلى فرض القيود على رأس المال، والموضوع الذي حظي باهتمام الجميع وهو موضوع رفع سعر الفائدة لأعلى مستوى في تاريخ الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية.

ومع تباطؤ النمو العالمي والتشكيك بانتعاش الاقتصاد في جميع انحاء العالم باستثناء الولايات المتحدة الامريكية، فقد واجهت دبي الواقع ببساطة وهي أنها مكلفة جدا للمقيمين فيها وكذلك الحال بالنسبة لقطاع الأعمال.

إن التكاليف المرتبطة بالحصول على عقار أو امتلاكه أو إدارته يلعب دوراً كبيراً في تحديد الجدوى المالية لكل من الأفراد وقطاعات الأعمال في هذه الإمارة.
ولكننا سنتذكر 2015 أيضاً على أنه العام الذي كان ضروريا للنمو المتوقع للعام القادم 2016.
إن التصحيح في الأسعار الذي كان جزءاً من 2015 في دبي سيعاود الارتفاع في بداية العام وذلك قبل أن يبدأ السوق بإعادة معايرة نفسه.

إن النمو السكاني سيؤدي للمزيد من الطلب، وببساطة يمكننا القول بأن دبي بحاجة للأشخاص القادرين والمؤهلين لدعم اقتصاد من المتوقع نموه بمعدل يتراوح بين 4 و 5% سنوياً حتى نهاية عقدنا هذا ولكي يتمكن من تحقيق المبادرات والمشاريع مثل معرض «إكسبو الدولي 2020» الذي من المتوقع أن يوفر 270,000 وظيفة إضافية وزيادة الطلب على الوحدات السكنية والمرافق التجارية والتي لا تتوفر حالياً.

إن التخطيط الحالي للمدينة يستوعب عدد الأشخاص المقيمين بالإمارة التي ستشهد نموا بمعدل 3.4 مليون شخص بحلول عام 2020 ما يشكل زيادة تبلغ 7% سنويا مقارنة مع التعداد الحالي البالغ 2.25 مليون شخص.

ليس هنالك أدنى شك بأن التقلب في الأسواق لعام 2015 سيؤدي لسوق عقار أكثر استقراراً وسيوفر منصة أفضل لفترة ستشهد نشاطا اقتصاديا وتجاريا خلال السنوات الخمس أو السبع المقبلة.
إن من شأن التحول الإنشائي نحو الوحدات السكنية ذات التكلفة الميسورة أن يعمل على استيعاب النمو السكاني المتسارع والمتوقع والمرتبط بحلول «اكسبو 2020» وأن يعمل أيضا كعامل مهم في تطوير وتعزيز اقتصاد دبي بشكل عام.
كما ويحتاج أي اقتصاد ناشئ إلى تطوير طبقة متوسطة قوية حيث أن توسعها يعتبر حيويا لنمو اقتصاد مستدام ولتعزيز المرونة في مجابهة الاختلالات والصدمات الاقتصادية والمالية الخارجية.

علاوة على ذلك، ولكي تتمكن دبي من المنافسة بشكل فعال على مستوى إقليمي وعالمي، فهي بحاجة لأن تضمن أن تكلفة المباشرة بمختلف نشاطات الأعمال في الإمارة لن تضعها بموقف الجهة المستبعدة عندما يدرس رواد الأعمال أو الشركات مختلف الخيارات والبدائل لأعمالهم.

بمجرد تبنينا لوجهة النظر هذه، فإن 2015 سيعتبر في طليعة المرحلة القادمة من النمو في دبي ولن يتم تذكر هذا العام على أنه عام الركود أو الكساد ولكنه العام الذي وضع الأساسات لما قد يعتبر العقد الأكثر ازدهاراً في تاريخ إمارة دبي حتى يومنا هذا.

*المدير التنفيذي لشركة «هاربور العقارية

http://www.alkhaleej.ae/analyzesandopinions/page/eeadfd82-7809-4315-8476-4cfd6af01d27

Rent Returns

Know the difference between sales comparison approach and Capital Asset Pricing Model

I have just purchased a new apartment as an investment. What is the best method of determining an optimal rental rate to attract my first tenant?

The simplest method is the Sales Comparison Approach (SCA). This method relies on identifying a factor that is homogenous to similar, if not, identical properties. For example, if an apartment similar to the one that you are planning to invest in is attracting a monthly rental rate of AED7 per sq.ft. per month, then this will indicate the likely cash-flows you can expect. This is an extremely simplistic approach that we, as property managers do not advocate although it’s surprising how many people limit their analysis to this simple method only.

A more comprehensive method is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The CAPM comprehends levels of risk and opportunity cost as it applies to your investment. This model identifies potential Total Return on Investment which is derived from Capital Appreciation in addition to net rental income and compares it to other investments that you may be considering.  This is a much more comprehensive evaluation tool which enables smarter investment decisions and, therefore, is the one that we use as standard procedure.

Please ensure you engage an experienced and professional property consultant when considering building your portfolio. You are about to make a big decision and should utilize expertise that will help you minimize risk and maximize your returns.

There seems to be a lot of confusion in the press as to Dubai’s Real Estate oversupply? Given the importance of Supply and Demand in determining pricing and values, how can such confusion exist?

Calculating optimal supply levels, particularly when emerging from a recessionary period when lots of project s were cancelled or delayed, is particularly challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of construction timelines which are invariably fluid and demand for real estate assets which will emanate from population growth which, in Dubai’s case, will be largely driven by overall economic growth going forward. In addition, it needs to comprehend a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are finally released onto the market.

Given that the economy of the emirate of Dubai is expected to grow at an estimated 5%+ annually for the remainder of the decade and initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo are expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs, the demand for housing and commercial facilities is expected to grow significantly going forward. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

We at Harbor take, at minimum, a 5 year view when trying to estimate supply and demand. When taking into account the nature of the markets resurgence, the strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that, while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our 5 year forecast period.

By Mohanad Alwadiya 
Published in Property Weekly Magazine
Dated: December 2015

Au Revoir 2015 … Bonjour 2016

So, 2015 is almost finished and, in reality, it was well and truly finished a few months ago. The planning for 2016 started in the third quarter and, save for a few formalities, 2015 is really already history.

What will 2015 be remembered for?

Well, the headlines that made continual references to the fact that there was a Real Estate correction will not be forgotten. Those who possess a more tactical, less strategic and shorter term point of view will view the year through a negative yet narrow lens while those who are taking the long term perspective, will view the year as one that saw the elimination of many systemic issues, addressing fundamental market imbalances and the implementation of necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market itself.

2015 will be remembered as the year that the mortgage rules implemented by the Central Bank and the increase in registration fees by the DLD really had full effect in helping to cool the market. It will also be remembered as the year that developers went to the “ideas bin” to create a myriad of different easy payment plans that, not only offered potential customers with an immediate and easier way to pay for off-plan properties, but also assisted in establishing new values for finished properties as well.

2015 saw a slew of new projects being launched, each one adding to the rapidly increasing on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market-wide. Each additional launch added to the competition for the investor dirham intensified leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units making the risk reward equation more palatable for off-plan units versus completed units.  In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this, perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

Which means that 2015 will also be remembered as the year when the market got serious about building affordable properties, mainly because of the rapid growth in Real Estate prices in preceding years, a dirham that was rapidly appreciating versus most major currencies due to geo-political issues in Russia, tanking of commodity (including oil of course) prices, unprecedented quantitative easing in Europe, surprise downward revaluations of the Chinese Yen along with the imposition of capital controls and the imminent and the most talked about interest rate rise in US history. With global growth slowing and the strength economic recovery being questioned everywhere except for the US, Dubai faced the reality of simply being too expensive for its residents and too costly for its businesses. The cost of acquiring, owning and managing Real Estate plays a large role in determining the fiscal viability of both individuals and businesses in the emirate.

But 2015 will also be remembered as the year that was critical to the growth expected to be experienced in 2016. The price correction that was so much a part of 2015 in Dubai will bottom out in the early part of the year before the market starts to recalibrate. Population growth will drive demand going forward as, put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 4-5% annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo. The Expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that, by and large, don’t currently exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

There is no doubt that the market gyrations of 2015 will result in more stable real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next 5 to 7 years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the 2020 expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall. Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations.

When taking this perspective, 2015 will be seen as being at the forefront of the next period of growth for Dubai and will not be recalled as a year of stagnation, but rather as a year of laying the foundations for what may well be the most prosperous decade in the emirates history to date.

By Mohanad Alwadiya
Published in Gulf Property Magazine December 2015 Edition

12.5 مليار درهم تصرّفات عقارات دبي في نوفمبر الماضي

حقق إجمالي التصرّفات العقارية من بيع ورهن في دبي خلال نوفمبر الماضي نحو 12.53 مليار درهم، منها 7.765 مليارات درهم معاملات بيع أراضٍ وشقق وفلل، و4.769 مليارات درهم معاملات رهن.

وكشفت بيانات دائرة الأراضي والأملاك في دبي عن تقارب بين قيمة التصرّفات خلال نوفمبر مقارنة مع أكتوبر الذي سبقه، إذ بلغت قيمة التصرفات فيه 12.5 مليار درهم.

وأرجع خبراء عقاريون لـ«الإمارات اليوم» ذلك إلى ما اعتبروه هدوءاً إيجابياً يخيم على السوق العقارية في دبي خلال الفترة الحالية، خصوصاً مع قرب انتهاء العام، وإرجاء الخطط الاستثمارية للبعض حتى العام الجديد، لافتين إلى أن القطاع العقاري في دبي يمر بمرحلة «استقرار صحي»، واستطاع أن يتخطى التقارير السلبية التي يصدرها بعض الجهات، فضلاً عن أنه مطمئن جداً للمستثمرين.

قيم متقاربة

وتفصيلاً، كشفت بيانات لدائرة الأراضي والأملاك في دبي، عن وجود تقارب في قيم التصرّفات العقارية خلال نوفمبر الماضي مقارنة مع أكتوبر الذي سبقه، إذ سجل الشهران القيمة نفسها بواقع 12.5 مليار درهم لكل منهما.

وأوضحت البيانات أن نوفمبر 2015 شهد تقارباً مع أكتوبر الذي سبقه حتى في تفاصيل التصرفات العقارية، إذ بلغ إجمالي مبيعات الأراضي والفلل والوحدات السكنية خلال نوفمبر 7.765 مليارات درهم مقارنة بثمانية مليارات درهم في أكتوبر، فيما سجلت رهونات نوفمبر 4.76 مليارات درهم مقابل 4.5 مليارات درهم في أكتوبر.

عوامل مؤثرة

إلى ذلك، قال المدير الإداري في شركة «هاربور» العقارية، مهند الوادية، إن «هناك عدداً من العوامل التي أثرت في تصرفات العقارات في دبي خلال نوفمبر وأكتوبر الماضيين، والتي اتسمت بالاستقرار، منها القرب من نهاية العام، وإرجاء البعض لقراراته الاستثمارية إلى العام الجديد، فضلاً عن أن العديد من المستثمرين ينظر إلى العوامل المرتبطة بالاقتصاد العالمي»، متوقعاً أن تستمر حالة الاستقرار خلال الفترة المقبلة وحتى الربع الأول من العام المقبل.

وأضاف أن الظاهرة الغالبة على السوق هي أن معظم الاستثمارات في السوق حالياً موجهة لذوي الدخل المتوسط، وهو ما تتسم به سوق دبي العقارية حالياً، ويتزامن ذلك مع العديد من المحفزات التي تمنحها الشركات، لا سيما تلك المتعلقة بتسهيلات الدفع.

استقرار صحي

بدوره، قال المدير العام لمؤسسة «رواد» للاستشارات العقارية، إسماعيل الحمادي، إن «القطاع العقاري في دبي يمر بمرحلة من الاستقرار الصحي، واستطاع أن يتخطى التقارير السلبية التي يصدرها بعض الجهات التي لها مصالح في السوق»، مؤكداً أن هذا الاستقرار سيستمر حتى نهاية العام الجاري، وذلك للتزامن مع رأس السنة الميلادية، والمناسبات الوطنية التي تحتفل بها الإمارات.

وأكد الحمادي أن سوق العقارات في دبي مطمئن جداً للمستثمرين، مستشهداً بعدد المشروعات التي تم إطلاقها خلال الأشهر التسعة الأولى من العام الجاري، التي زادت على 60 مشروعاً، مؤكداً أن مبيعات عقارات دبي خلال العام الجاري حققت طفرة كبيرة عن عام 2013.

هدوء إيجابي

واتفق المدير العام في شركة «عوض قرقاش» للعقارات، رعد رمضان، مع الحمادي في أن السوق العقارية في دبي تتسم بأنها قوية ومستقرة ومطمئنة.

وقال إن هذا ما يفسر حالة الاستقرار التي تشهدها السوق في ظل الأوضاع العالمية المتذبذبة وذات المخاطر العالية حالياً، التي تؤثر في النشاط الاقتصادي بالعديد من الدول.

وأرجع رمضان قوة السوق العقارية في دبي إلى عوامل ترتبط بالإمارة، منها البنية التشريعية والتنظيمية للقطاع العقاري، فضلاً عن توافر عوامل الأمان التي تعتبر عنصراً أساسياً في أي نوع من الاستثمار.

وأكد أن السوق تمر بمرحلة من الهدوء الإيجابي، إذ لا يوجد تخوف من المستثمرين العقاريين، لكن هناك إرجاء للقرار الاستثماري بعض الوقت.

وعبر عن أمله بعودة زخم المبيعات في الفترة المقبلة، بالتزامن مع وجود مشروعات كبيرة ذات فرص جيدة، لا سيما تلك التي تمس القطاع المتوسط، وتقدم تسهيلات مغرية في السداد.

Expert Eye

Open houses and getting your home sold

Some easy-breezy steps to make the process a fun affair

Holding an open house can be a great way to  get  your home  sold.  Here are four easy-to-remember steps that might help you.

Step 1: Plan and prioritise

You need to identify what improvements are required.  Discuss this with your real estate agent and make a realistic plan that fits your budget and time frame. Be business-like in your approach and set aside your emotions.

Identify who the target audience might be so you can prepare accordingly. Your agent can help you determine what type of buyer your area is attracting. To establish an emotional connection  between  your buyers  and  the  home, develop  a  perception  of value for money and make your  home  appear  ready for  immediate  occupancy.  Jot down problem areas or those that need embellishing.

Once you have finished your list, address the issues quickly.

Step 2: Tackle big-picture projects

General fixes you should consider making are:

Cleaning  –  Pay  special attention  to  your  kitchen and  bathrooms;  they  pose the  biggest  turn-off  to potential buyers if dirty.

De-cluttering and depersonalising – Put away family photos.  Clean and organise closets and storage space.

Fixing  what’s  broken –Make  sure  all  broken windows,  loose  door handles,  leaky  faucets  and non-functioning  light switches  are  in  working order.

Painting – Painting your interior walls in neutral colours is one of the most cost-effective ways to make your home show well. Paint can also work wonders on outdated cabinetry.

Replacing flooring, carpets or floor tiles – Try cleaning and repairing damaged flooring, or replacing it.

Updating light fixtures – They are the jewellery of a home.  Buy inexpensive, contemporary fixtures, or revamp the old ones.

Step 3: Focus on the details

Use these tips to fine-tune each area in your property:

Front yard and entryway – Keep your lawn mowed and well-maintained. Plant colourful flowers.  Replace old welcome mats and door knockers.  Give the front door a fresh coat of paint.

Living  room  –  Arrange furniture  to  create  a focal  point  around  an entertainment  suite  or  a large  window  to  create  a “wow”  factor.  Disguise old sofas with fashionable coverings.

Kitchen  –  Remove  magnets  and  photos  off  the refrigerator  and  clear  off countertops  with  non-essentials. Add stylish accessories.  Use greenery to fill empty corners.

Bedroom – Emphasise luxury and comfort. No extra beds, golf clubs, workspaces or  anything  that  does  not belong in a bedroom.

Bathroom  –  Put  new towels,  a  new  shower  curtain and fresh, fancy soaps. Dress up the space with candles or a silk flower arrangement.

Backyard – Make it a place where buyers can see themselves spending time. Add furniture and set out a tray with some cool drinks, or put out some coffee and snacks.

Step 4: Put on the finishing touches

Don’t forget these last-minute details:

Set out vases of fresh-cut flowers – They will make your home smell nice and add a splash of colour.

Let in the light – Buyers want a bright, open house, not a dark and dreary cave.

Turn on all the lights and open all the curtains.

Adjust the temperature – Keep the home comfortable, not too cold or too hot.

Safeguard your belongings – Stash valuables and prescription medications in a safe place.

Leave – Go see a movie, visit friends, or have a long lunch.  Spend the day out and about and let your perfectly prepped home sell itself.

Expert Eye

Purchasing a home? Plan carefully

Eliminate any surprises by conducting careful planning and due diligence

There is no doubt that the Dubai real estate market presents some fantastic opportunities for both investors and first-time home buyers. For the latter, there is no better time to take advantage of the value that is currently on offer and start to build a solid financial future.

However, just because the market is currently strongly in favor of buyers doesn’t mean that careful planning and due diligence should not be adhered to. There is never a market scenario which demands hasty decisions; the markets will always demand and reward timely decisions. This is an important distinction to make as taking shortcuts in preparation and planning, particularly in financial planning, is a common shortcoming of investors and home buyers who are keen to take advantage of the varied opportunities.

One area that is often overlooked is the many additional costs “of buying, owning and occupying a home. Many first-time home buyers tend to only focus on the purchase price and mortgage costs and forget that there are other costs to be considered.

Assuming you have con ducted a thorough search and have identified the property that you would like to buy, your negotiated buying price will be subject to a 4% property registration fee at the Dubai Land Department (DLD). You may be taking advantage of some recent payment plans whereby the transfer of ownership and registration fees are deferred until all payments are satisfied; regardless, it is a cost that you need to cover eventually. There will also be a charge of .25 % of the value of any mortgage payable at the-time of registration.

Speaking of mortgages, most lenders require property insurance and you would, in all likelihood, wish to insure your belongings. This is in addition to the loan protection insurance that you need to take out as a prerequisite to finalizing your mortgage so that your spouse and children are protected from having to pay down the mortgage if you should pass away prematurely. You may also consider other forms of insurance covering disability and terminal illness.

Every building or community requires maintenance and operational management. So, you need to understand what fees you will pay to those who will provide the services that make your new home a secure place to live. Fees can vary depending on your location or the development you are part of, so ascertain what you will pay before you sign the purchase agreement.

 Then there are the costs of actually occupying your home. It starts with paying deposits to set up utility accounts followed by monthly utility bills for electricity, gas and water, as well as Pay TV, telephone and Internet services.

Then there are the moving costs. If you are a single or a young couple, you may be able to handle this yourself. For some families, moving may require renting a truck or hiring a moving company.

 Of course, you need to consider the additional new furniture or decorative items you need to buy so that your new home lives up to the vision that inspired you to buy it in the first place.

If you have purchased a new villa, you will want to do some landscaping. This may include the addition or modification of outside entertainment areas such as patios or BBQ areas, design or redesign of plants, trees, shrubs and pathways along with the establishment of a healthy and robust lawn. Play equipment for children may need to be purchased along with additional items such as security systems, fencing or exterior lighting.

Thus, planning a home purchase entails more than just figuring out what your mortgage payments may be. With careful planning, you can eliminate any surprises with your next purchase.

Ask the agent

Can you explain the term capitalization rate?

Capitalisation rate (cap rate) is the rate of return on a real estate property based on the income that the property is expected to generate. It is used to estimate the investor’s potential return on investment. It maybe calculated by dividing the investment’s net operating income (NOI) by the current market value, where NOI is the total revenue derived from renting or leasing the property minus all operating costs. Put simply, the cap rate = NOl current market value. Given that the capital values for Dubai properties have shown greater volatility than the income being derived, the NOI being generated from the property at today’s value needs to be looked into. This allows us to see whether the property’s performance is improving or declining by referring to the cap rate. If the cap rate is declining, this leads us to conclude that selling the property would generate greater income.

Where do you think the best investment opportunities are in the Dubai real estate market?

Definitely in the affordable segment of the market!

We are encouraging clients to invest in this important segment as there are some great opportunities and the demand for affordable housing is likely to continue increasing as Dubai heads towards the Expo 2020. There are many affordable developments that have been sprouting in Dubailand and other parts of the city, especially in the outskirts. They are strategically located, with easy access to major road networks like the Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, thus residents enjoy fast transit times to most of Dubai’s popular areas. The demand for this type of affordable accommodation will continue to grow. invest in apartments and retain ownership for atleast five years to gain superior capital growth and enjoy healthy net annual rental return in the meantime.

Do you think the property prices will fall further in this current cycle? If so, would now be a good time to sell?

The fact that the property industry is notoriously cyclical is widely known yet viewed differently. Investors with a clear strategy and long-term plan simply accept, foresee and plan for cycles in the industry. They look for longer—term sustainable growth rather than take additional risk by trying to accumulate wealth by taking advantage of shorter-term spikes or dips. Investing in property has a very simple purpose: to create wealth over the long term. However, your portfolio needs to be nurtured, maintained and managed to ensure its wealth-creating potential is achieved as it rides the inevitable cycles that occur in the industry. Adopting a short-term vision and reacting unreasonably to inevitable industry slowdowns will lead to underperformance in the longer term. Consider engaging a good property manager who will ensure that you maximize returns.

I plan to purchase our first family home. What are the factors to consider when getting a mortgage?

There are a number of considerations that you need to factor into your plan of buying a home. One of these is getting a mortgage. Generally speaking, you are much better off financially in applying your hard-earned money towards building equity, but keep in mind that mortgage payments can be subject to fluctuations as interest rates rise. Not all mortgages are the same. Try and have the mortgage establishment fees waived. Depending on the institution, this may save you up to Dh3,000. Also request that you are not penalized for paying the mortgage down faster or in its entirety. By law, the mortgage provider cannot charge you more than 1% of the outstanding amount or a maximum of Dhl0,000, but try to have this stipulation dropped from your contract. Make sure your provider will allow you to utilize the equity you build in your home over time. Some lenders will allow you to use this as security for further borrowing.

Question of the week

I am buying an off-plan property. Can you explain the principles of escrow?

An escrow can be described as a legally recognized financial instrument held by a third party (typically a bank) on behalf of two other parties (typically a buyer and a seller) who have agreed to conduct a particular transaction in accordance with certain conditions. Funds are provided by the buyer and held by the party (bank) providing the escrow service until it receives the formal advice that certain previously agreed obligations of the seller have been fulfilled upon which time, the seller can receive funds to the amount specified in the agreement between the seller and buyer.

The use of escrow accounts by Dubai developers has now been mandated by law for the purpose of protecting the prepayments made by buyers. This limits developers from gaining access to funds until certain construction milestones are completed, helping ensure developers are not misappropriating funds provided in advance for purposes other than which they are intended.

Anybody can open an escrow account but not anybody can open one for the purposes of property development in Dubai. The developer must first be registered as a bona fide developer with RERA which involves providing documents ranging from those which establish the bona fide nature of the developer including details of its officers and solvency, title deeds proving ownership of the land to be developed, NOC from relevant parties to performance guarantees.