Off-plan property sales are ‘dead’ and prices continue to slide.

While he said there were signs of stablisation of completed properties in areas such as downtown Dubai and the Palm Jumeirah, Alwadiya said investors lacked confidence in the off-plan market, where prices have slid up to 50 percent since the emirate’s property collapse last September.

“In some areas, mainly in off-plan, prices continue to drop. This is natural,” he told Dubai Eye radio in an interview.
“Confidence levels in off-plan projects is very low. Off-plan sales are almost dead,” he added.

On a brighter note, Alwadiya said his company had seen 45 percent more buyer queries in the second quarter, than in the first quarter.

Property consultant Colliers International said house prices in Dubai fell 41 percent and 9 percent in the first and second quarters in 2009.

Dubai-based Harbor Real Estate offers property advisory services to individual and institutional investors.

Brokerage firms in UAE report double-digit losses

Brokerage firms in the UAE have recorded significant declines in revenues in the past 12 months owing to the slowdown in the real estate sector, with losses running into high double-digits, real estate pokerage companies told Emirates Business.

Elysian Real Estate, a Dubai-based pokerage firm, said there was a 60 per cent decline in sales commission earnings as it has recorded a drop in sales volumes by almost 50 per cent.

“We were making 20 to 40 sales deals a month last year. Now we are doing about 10 to 20 in a month,” said Robert Macnair, Sales Director, Elysian Real Estate.
“Our commission earnings last year were about Dh4 million to Dh6m per month. That has dropped to a monthly earnings of Dh2m to Dh2.5m,” he said.
On the leasing front, Elysian Real Estate was concluding an average of 30 deals a month at this time last year. “Now, however, that has dropped to about an average of 15 deals a month,” said Macnair.

Harbor Real Estate said its profits dipped 38 per cent during the period between the first half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. “Our revenues dropped approximately 40 per cent over the past 12 months. Sales volumes have dropped approximately 70 per cent,” said Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director, Harbor Real Estate.

Peter Penhall, CEO, GowealthyGowealthy, also said due to the overall decline in investor activity within the real estate sector, his company has experienced a decline in its trading levels.

“We have seen a drop in trading levels to the tune of 40 to 50 per cent from previous averages. However, this negative trend should be viewed against the backdrop of abnormal increases in trading volumes during 2008. The real correlation would be current trading vis-à-vis 2007 levels of trading.”
Rajesh Kumar Krishna, Managing Director of UAE-based Indiana Real Estate, said his company has recorded a drop of about 70 per cent in revenues in the past 12 months.

“This includes our profits and commission earnings all together. pokerage firms are now trying to sustain themselves in as many ways as possible, since we are not recording much sales.

“We have also had to lay off a number of our estate agents in line with market conditions and our income through commissions has dropped massively by about 80 per cent in the past 12 months,” he said.

Penhall said profits are based on two factors, revenue and costs. “It has been imperative that both these elements be addressed during the first half of this year. In light of the sharp correction in the pokerage sector, there will be a heightened level of ‘interp-okerage co-operation’ reflecting a maturing real estate market. The correction in the pokerage sector will help more stable firms to naturally look towards supporting themselves in an effort not only to survive this change, but to emerge from it in a more matured manner,” he said.

pokerage companies also detailed the various measures taken by them to reduce their losses in the downturn. Many companies have adopted new policies, including developing a considerable leasing and international portfolio.

Alwadiya said one of the policies now pursued by pokerage firms is building a relationship with a network of other selective pokerages to help each other in sales. “This has helped companies to increase their reach and access different markets. The long-term partnerships, although involving profit sharing, are very effective in establishing a steady and sustainable stream of revenue for the pokerage firms,” he said.

Krishna said Indiana Real Estate was trying to sustain itself in the market by raising a leasing portfolio. “We are not going aggressive on sales at this moment, as there is no point at all. Even if pokers want to invest on the sales front, there is no business left,” he said.

Macnair said: “We have had to adapt quickly to the downturn in the real estate sector. At Elysian, we launched a Malaysian project. And we have made a conscious effort to go outside Dubai. Having said that, developing an international portfolio or a leasing portfolio has only allowed us to minimise losses, not completely remove them.

“Real estate firms, which heavily sold off-plan properties, have suffered the most. Those which quickly resorted to developing a leasing portfolio have benefited.”
Harbor Real Estate said its leasing volumes quadrupled in the past 12 months and the research and consultancy assignments doubled. “We have managed to optimise our revenue streams by focusing on specific areas of the market that emerged following the property crisis, including consultancy, research and leasing services and even consolidation transactions,” said Alwadiya.

“In 2009, our leasing division became one of the main revenue generating streams owing to the increased demand for leasing. pokerage companies have also benefited from the fact that developers and sellers started providing handsome compensation packages in return for sales results,” he said.
Penhall said the leasing sector is witnessing an enormous level of competition with very low cash takeouts.

“Further, the leasing sector is compounded with unprofessional behaviour on the part of certain independent service providers. Therefore, we have chosen to retain a lower profile in the leasing market and our exposure to this sector of the real estate market is limited,” he said.

He said like most pokerages in Dubai, GowealthyGowealthy, too, has had to adjust its trading model to suit market conditions. “Unlike most of the general pokerage companies during the past year or two, we chose to focus our business model on providing a dedicated service to a select number of developers, providing them with a full services-sales-marketing functionality,” said Penhall.

“The market correction during the latter part of 2008 has seen a significant directional change away from off-plan properties, with the current focus being on the secondary markets in completed products. Our business model has seen a significant realignment during this correction period.

“Initially our focus was on realigning our revenue model towards the areas of business where there was action. Since Fepuary and March, GowealthyGowealthy has been extremely busy in servicing the ‘open house’ concept. We have achieved a significant number of transactions from this sector, which have helped in minimising trading losses during the first six months of this year.”

According to GowealthyGowealthy, the recent months have reflected a steady increase in the number of overall deals, although current levels are at significant lows in comparison to 2007 averages.

“We are seeing a slow increase in deal values within certain high demand areas, such as the Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Burj Dubai and Dubai Marina. We anticipate a further consolidation phase during the coming two months. The year 2010 looks to be a year of stabilisation and steady yet marginal growth.”
Macnair said residential properties with good quality finishes were the ones faring well at the moment. “Prices in Tiara Residences in the Palm Jumeirah have gone up from Dh1.9m last December to Dh2.3m.”

Alwadiya said affordable living areas such as Discovery Gardens and International City were becoming more popular among the middle-class rental segment.
“Yield generating assets are becoming very popular among the investors segment, such as ready properties within well-developed and maintained communities such as the Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina and Downtown Burj Dubai.

“Affordable housing is expected to generate higher yields over the short-term before the lower quality of the establishment begins to be reflected in potential tenant valuations. Hence, luxury properties that offer high-quality finishes, amenities and facilities are looked at as a safer long-term investment option,” said Alwadiya.

Penhall said properties purchased before the late 2007 and 2008 boom phase should now be coming back into a net gain position.
“As the market starts to reflect a glimmer of hope in positive price changes, it is becoming more difficult to source quality properties, so we see this as a particular driver of the short-term marketplace. Finished products, particularly villas, have shown the most activity. It is periods like this that force the most dynamic businesses to adjust to market conditions and it is the businesses that have been able to do so quickly and efficiently that will come out of this challenge stronger and better equipped to handle the up-kick in the market that will inevitably follow this period of crisis,” said Penhall.

Alwadiya said the number of viewings and transactions during the second quarter of 2009 have increased dramatically compared to the first quarter of the year. “For us, viewings increased by 45 to 50 per cent in the last quarter.”

According to Macnair, however, Dubai can expect to see a further reduction in sales and lease prices.

“Only areas such as ‘The Palm’ and Downtown Burj Dubai will remain expensive. Areas such as Victory Heights and Al Farjan are all priced currently below 25 per cent of their original price. When prices reach 25 per cent below the original price, that is when people start buying in these areas,” he said.

Krishna said Dubai’s real estate has been delivered as an investment product. “Investors will only enter the market here once the world economy recovers. It is difficult to predict any revival time for Dubai as we have to wait till international markets show signs of recovery.” By Anjana Kumar © Emirates Business 24/7 2009

Property expert Mohanad Alwadiya tackles your property questions

Q: We’re looking to buy a villa in Dubai in the coming year. How do you rate Jumeirah Village as an area to buy property in? What are the pros and cons?

A: Phase two of Jumeirah Village has just been handed over and this has created a buzz in the market, especially in the rental market for affordable two-bedroom villas. According to Nakheel, they are very confident and looking forward to completing all of the 2,200 villas by the end of this year, which is exciting news for the owners of house there. The pros are the affordable prices, a well-planned villa community, a good mix of planned retail and community facilities and the well designed villas and townhouses.

Although Jumeirah Village is strategically located, access is perceived to be inconvenient and it is in close proximity to high voltage power lines. The section that Nakheel is developing is progressing as planned. However, the Jumeirah Village Circle part, which is developed by private developers, is really behind schedule and is creating a lot of negative word of mouth in the marketplace and hence affecting the overall reputation of the Jumeirah Village development.
I would recommend buying a villa there because of the attractive prices and because the supply of villas is much lower than apartments and hence it offers a safer investment. If you are buying a villa to live in, Jumeirah Village offers an excellent community lifestyle.

Q: My wife and I have been looking at possibly buying a two-bedroom apartment at Burj Views in Downtown Burj Dubai as a buy-to-let property. Do you think this would be a reasonable option?

A: The Burj Dubai area is becoming popular with end-users because of the enjoyable living experience it offers. Having said that, and given the popularity of this area, the selling prices of units there have been inflated by the secondary market and resale activities. This has put a lot of pressure on rental yields. The rental return increase could not keep pace with sale prices as potential tenants would compare prices with other competitive areas in Dubai. High quality property consistently generates higher average yields over the long term. Affordable housing is expected to generate higher yields over the short-term before the lower quality of the establishment begins to be reflected in potential tenant valuations.

Q: There have been reports about rental increases in some areas of Dubai. In which areas do you think renters can still get good value for money?

A: Tenants can still expect to get bargain rental deals across the majority of the freehold zones in Dubai. I would recommend Jumeirah Lakes Towers as it remains very much underrated overall.
This development enjoys a very strategic location and has a fantastic master plan yet its true potential is still to be recognised. JLT has a good balance between office space and residential offerings.
The prices are at least 15% cheaper than Dubai Marina and Jumeirah Lakes Towers has the potential to achieve the same status as Dubai Marina, and in a very short time.
Do you have a property question that needs answering? Email fm@alnisrmedia.com along with your contact details

UAE Banks in Position to start lending soon Reveals Harbor Report

أآد السيد مهند الوادية المدير الإداري لشرآة هاربور للوساطة العقارية بأن البنوك
الإماراتية في وضع قوي يمكنها خلال الفترة الحالية من استئناف عمليات الإقراضفي
المجال العقاري حسب تقرير هاربور الفصلي الذي سيصدر في نهاية الشهر الحالي،
حيث ذآر السيد مهند رئيس تحرير التقرير بأن البنوك الإماراتية تعاملت مع الأزمة
الإقتصادية العالمية بشكل يعزز رؤوس أموالها من خلال التدابير التي اتخذتها بقيادة
البنك المرآزي، فوصلت قيمة رؤوس أموال البنوك إلى 200 مليار درهما خلال شهر
مايو الماضي.

وقال السيد الوادية “إن أهم هذه التدابير التي طبقتها البنوك هي تقديم أسعار فائدة أعلى
للمدخرين واتخاذ نهج متحفظ على عمليات الإقراض، حيث أن هذه الإجراءات وبلا شك
ستساهم بشكل آبير في تأمين القطاع المصرفي بالإمارات من المخاطر المحتملة وبالتالي يساعد دولة الإمارات على
الإنتعاش من الأزمة الإقتصادية”

ويتطرق تقرير هاربور الفصلي إلى الأسباب التي أدت إلى انخفاض حاد في السيولة في الأسواق إضافة إلى طرحه
لدلائل تفيد بعودتها للتدفق بشكل بطيء، آما يؤآد التقرير على أهمية اتباع قانون معلومات الإئتمان ويسلط الضوء
على حقيقة أن البنوك الإماراتية حاليا مازالت متشددة في اعتمادها لمعاييرإدارة المخاطر لديها .

وذآر مهند الوادية في تقرير هاربور الفصلي بأنه على الرغم من ظهور علامات بدء تدفق السيولة إلى أسواق
العقارات الإماراتية والعالمية إلا أن عدداً آبيراً من المستثمرين العقاريين الحاليين والمستقبليين يشعرون بالإحباط
نتيجة لبطء هذا التدفق. فليس فقط انخفض سعر الفائدة المشترك بين بنوك دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة
“إيبور”مقارنة بأسعار الذروة التي بلغت 4.78 % في تشرين الثاني / نوفمبر من العام 2008 مقابل 2.46 % فقط
في الربع الثاني من العام الحالي 2009 ، ولكن العديد من البنوك مازالت تحافظ نوعا ما على مستويات القروض
المنخفضة نسبيا مقابل الإيداعات المصرفية.

ويتابع التقرير، بالرغم من وجود قابلية ضئيلة للمخاطرة فإن السيولة ستتدفق في القريب العاجل بالأسواق وأنه يمكن
لوآالة ائتمان منظمة الحد من المخاطر المرتبطة بعمليات القروض ومساعدة الدولة على الإنتعاش.
” ينظر إلى تطبيق قانون معلومات الإئتمان على أنه خطوة إيجابية نحو الشفافية والحد من المخاطر التي تواجهها
البنوك وسيخلق هذا القانون إطاراً من الحقوق والإلتزامات لمقدمي البيانات ومستخدمي المعلومات والأفراد على حد
سواء”. اضاف السيد مهند الوادية

وأوضح بأن هذا القانون له آثار إيجابية بارزة تترتب عليه وخاصة من خلال مبدأ الشفافية الذي سيتيح الفرصة
للمصارف بأن تكون سريعة في اتخاذ قراراتها والتخفيف من حدة المخاطر المالية والتقليل من النظام البيروقراطي
آما أنه يعد خطوة إيجابية نحو نضج واستقرار وآفاءة القطاع المالي، مما سيؤدي مرة أخرى إلى ازدهار قطاع
العقارات في الدولة .

سيكون تقرير هاربور الفصلي متاحاً على شبكة الإنترنت اعتباراً من نهاية شهر تموز/يوليو الحالي ويمكن تحميله
www.harbordubai.com/harborreport : من خلال موقع شرآة هاربور للوساطة العقارية

Real Estate market to start recovery in early 2010

أآد تقرير هاربور الفصلي الذي تصدره شرآة هاربور للوساطة العقارية والتي
تعتبر إحدى أبرز شرآات الإستشارات العقارية الرائدة في دبي على أن بداية العام
2010 سوف تشهد انتعاشاً وتحسناً ملحوظاً في سوق العقارات بدولة الإمارات
العربية المتحدة بعد موجة الإنحدار التي شهدها السوق في الفترة الحالية والتي
سوف تمتد لعدة أشهر أخرى.

وقال السيد مهند الوادية المدير الإداري لشرآة هابور للوساطة العقارية ورئيس
تحرير تقرير هاربور : ” أعتقد أن سوق العقارات في الإمارات ما يزال غير
مستقر إلى الآن ، وبالتالي فإنه يصعب التنبؤ بمدى التحسن الذي سيحدث خلال
الأشهر القادمة، ولكن آل المؤشرات والأحداث تفيد بأن سوق العقارات الإماراتي
سيشهد انتعاشاً خلال العام القادم 2010 على جميع المستويات المحلية والعالمية”.

وأآد التقرير على أن الفترة الماضية شهدت الكثير من التغيرات الإيجابية التي حصلت من خلال اتباع الجهات
الحكومية بدولة الإمارات لسياسات نقدية ومالية جديدة وإعادة هيكلة الشرآات وتحسين ميزانياتها وحدوث عمليات
الدمج والاستحواذ بين الشرآات الكبرى وهو الأمر الذي من شأنه أن يحدث تحسينات قوية ومستدامة في قطاع
العقارات خلال الأشهر القادمة.

وأشار الواديه إلى أن تقرير هابور الفصلي الأول لهذا العام آان قد صدر في شهر ابريل، وهو الوقت الذي آانت
تسيطر عليه حالة من التشاؤم على القطاع العقاري. ولكن اليوم ومن خلال هذه الإجراءات التي اتخذتها الحكومة
الإماراتية للحد من تدهور السوق وحالة الرآود التي سيطرت عليه، فإننا نجد أن وضع السوق أصبح أفضل بكثير
من قبل مما يعني خروجه وبشكل تدريجي من حالته السيئة التي آان يتوقعها البعض، وهذا بحد ذاته يعتبر خبراً
جيداً.

وأوضح أن الكثير من خبراء الإقتصاد في اليابان والصين والولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وأوروبا بدأو يتحدثون عن
نمو “البراعم الخضراء” أو ما يعرف بالمؤشرات المبكرة على أن العودة إلى النمو الإقتصادي أصبحت الآن تلوح
. بالأفق والتي من المتوقع لها أن تكون أمراً واقعاً مع بداية العام القادم 2010

وأضاف بأن الكثير من آراء الخبراء آانت تتوقع تحسن الحالة الإقتصادية العالمية خلال الربع الثالث من العام
الحالي 2009 ، مما آان له أثر إيجابي انعكس على أداء أسواق المال العالمية بشكل أدى إلى ارتفاع ثقة المستهلكين
بهذه الأسواق العالمية خلال الشهور الستة الأخيرة

وعلى الرغم من التراجع الذي شهدته أسواق الأسهم العالمية إلا أنه يمكننا القول بأن الأسوأ أصبح وراءنا، ولكن
السؤال الذي يطرح نفسه دائماً إلى متى ستستمر هذه الأزمة وماهي البوادر الحقيقية لانتهائها حتى نصل إلى مرحلة
الإنتعاش.

ومن الجدير بالذآر فإن تقرير هاربور الفصلي الأول آان قد صدر بشهر نيسان/أبريل من العام الحالي 2009
في حين أن التقرير الثاني سوف يصدر في نهاية شهر تموز/يوليو وسوف يتضمن تحليلاً متعمقاً إضافة إلى الكثير
من وجهات النظر وأهم الإتجاهات في مجال العقارات بالإمارات، حيث أن تقرير هاربور يلقى ردود فعل إيجابية
من قبل المتخصصين في هذا القطاع على مستوى المنطقة.

Ask the experts

Every week, we invite you to have your property questions answered by an expert. This week, Mohanad Alwadiya* tackles the task.

Q.. With banks willing to offer financing for apartments, I’m thinking of buying somewhere like The Residence in Downtown Burj Dubai. Do you think this a good ove? Can I expect a decent appreciation over, say, a five year period?

A.. I would say it’s definitely a good move. The Residence, Downtown Burj Dubai represents fantastic value at this time and with the market approaching the ‘bottom’,
the opportunity to make solid capital gains, particularly with a five-year investment horizon is very strong. In addition, with the Burj Dubai approaching completion, your
capital gain in the short-term will be accelerated. Remember that your future capital gain, regardless of property, will be heavily influenced by the decisions you make today. The fundamentals still apply and considerations such as the view, location, fit and finish, configuration and overall quality will have a big bearing on your ability to command a premium when you decide to resell in the future.

Q.. I’m thinking of buying an apartment in a reasonably priced new development, maybe Discovery Gardens. I’m just wondering if there are any hidden charges should I be aware of?

A.. First of all, you need to consider the charges associated with the transaction itself. If you purchase an apartment through a real estate agent, you will normally need to pay a 2% agency commission at the time of purchase. In addition to this amount, transfer fees of 2% will be payable to the Land Department and registration fees of Dh5,000 will apply. If you are financing your purchase, there are additional charges payable to your finance provider. These will vary between 1% and 1.5% of the total loan amount. Once you have moved into your new Discovery Gardens apartment, you will then need to pay an annual maintenance fee, which is currently about Dh30/ft², and includes your central cooling charges. However, this amount is currently under review and is expected to reduce significantly according to April 2009 press reports. Additionally, a further reduction is expected once the Owners Association is formed in accordance with the new strata title legislation. Alhough they’re not really‘hidden charges’, don’t forget that you will need to budget for property and contents insurance and, unless you want to live in the dark, you will need to account for DEWA (Dubai Electricity and Water Authority) expenses as well.

Q.. I’ve been told prime investment properties such as villas on Palm Jumeirah have suddenly become difficult to buy, as prices have dropped and sellers are withdrawing their properties from the market. Do you think prices have bottomed out there?

A.. By and large, yes. I think prices for villas have reached a bottom on Palm Jumeirah and it is extremely difficult to breach this floor.

Road to Recovery

Mohanad Alwadiya, managing director of Harbor Real Estate, ponders what is needed to hasten the recovery of Dubai’s property market. words: Muby Asgher
Although the return of affordable home finance is likely to kickstart the revival of Dubai’s real estate sector, this is only one of many factors affecting the emirate’s property market, says Mohanad Alwadiya, managing director of Harbor Real Estate. “The recovery process is far more complex than just taking the first step,” he says. “To view the revival of real estate in isolation from the overall economic recovery of Dubai, UAE and the rest of the world, would be incorrect. On the macro-economic
level, a recovery in the world economy is fundamental to any recovery in the real estate sector, as virtually all of Dubai’s industries are exposed and vulnerable to
world economic events. The real estate industry is no different.” Mohanad, however, notes that the problems facing the emirate are not unique. “In virtually every economy in the world, credit has tightened, consumption is down, governments are scrambling to shore up the financial sector and people are losing their jobs due to companies restructuring.” Based on the number of transactions, property sales have dropped from around 60% to 75%, says Mohanad, while stressing that demand varies according to property type. “While the government has taken multiple and significant steps to minimise the symptoms of the recession, its actions can only soften the impact. Make no mistake, Dubai is well placed to weather the storm, but no economy can escape its effects,” he says. As many economies start to rebound, so too will Dubai’s, he predicts. “Just as Dubai’s growth was negatively impacted by the global downturn, so too will it benefit from the global recovery, particularly as world trade, tourism and economic development accelerates.