Dubai

H1 2015… and where are we?

Mohanad Alwadiya, MD of Harbor Real Estate & Instructor at
the Dubai Real Estate Institute, the Official
Training & Certification Arm of the Dubai Land Department

For the past 6 months, headlines have been making many and varied references to the Real Estate correction in Dubai. This is not surprising as yes; indeed, Dubai’s Real Estate industry is in the midst of a correction. For many, the term “correction” is viewed with suspicion and trepidation, particularly those with a more tactical, less strategic, short term point of view. For those who are taking the long term perspective, the term “correction” is viewed with anticipation as the term refers to the elimination of systemic issues and making the necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market itself.

There is no doubt that a “correction” was overdue. 2013 will long be remembered as Dubai’s comeback year as the total value of Real Estate transactions reached AED 234 Billion, a 52% increase in the prior year which was clearly unsustainable as witnessed when the correction began in 2014 when AED 218 Billion worth of real estate assets were sold, a reduction of over AED 16 Billion on the prior year. At the time of writing, just over AED 63 Billion worth of transactions had taken place during 2015 indicating that the market is well and truly into its correction phase.

The market definitely benefitted from high levels of liquidity during 2012 and 2013. Capital inflows seeking safe haven from regional conflicts flowed strongly, however, they were sure to weaken and have. Geo-political events such as the wrangling over the Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West meant a rubble which was declining rapidly in value made investing in Dubai an increasingly expensive proposition for Russian investors who historically have been prevalent amongst the investing community. In addition, changes to mortgage laws also dampened the availability of capital for those investors wishing to use leverage to capitalize on attractive property valuations and the promise of high and sustainable rental yields. A slew of new projects being launched as a result of renewed developer optimism also placed pressure on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market-wide. Initially, launches were made with prices for off-plan units consistent and supportive to prices for completed units. However, with each additional launch competition for the investor Dirham intensified, leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units making the risk reward equation more palatable for off-plan units versus completed units. In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this, perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

The number of new launches has been impressive, leaving many to question whether over- exuberance on behalf of developers will result in a significant oversupply. Calculating optimal supply levels, particularly when emerging from a recessionary period, is particularly challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for real estate assets which will emanate from population growth which, in Dubai’s case, will be largely driven by overall economic growth going forward. In addition, it needs to comprehend a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are completed and are released onto the market.

We at Harbor take, at minimum, a 5 year view when looking at equilibrium or imbalances in the market. When taking into account the nature of the markets resurgence, the strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that, while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our 5 year forecast period. There will be around 11,000 villas, 7,500 townhouses and 35,000 apartments delivered between now and January 2020. While this may seem a lot, remember that we are a entering period where demand for properties, particularly those which are affordable, is expected to rise significantly and, given average current occupation rates are around 80 – 85%, there is not much margin for error in terms of satisfying expected demand.

Put simply Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5%+ annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo. The Expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that, by and large, don’t currently exist. Much of the city’s planning comprehends the number of people living in the emirate to grow to 3.4million people by 2020, a 7% annual increase from today’s population of 2.25million.

There is no doubt that a stabilized real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next 5 to 7 years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only serve to accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the 2020 expo, but also serve as an important factor in the development of the Dubai economy overall.

Every emerging economy needs to develop a strong middle class as its expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks. In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively on a regional and global basis, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternatives for their operations. When taking this perspective, the correction could not have come at a better time.

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إيجارات دبي” تتمسك بأدائها عند المستويات نفسها في النصف الثاني”

دبي ملحم الزبيدي:

حافظ سوق إيجارات الوحدات السكنية (الشقق والفلل) في دبي منذ بداية النصف الثاني من العام الجاري على نفس مستويات الأداء الذي استهله خلال الأشهر الستة الأولى من 2015، حيث تمسكت أغلبية المناطق بالأسعار نفسها مع تراجعات طفيفة في بعض المناطق على حدود الإمارة.
من المرجح أن تحافظ أسعار إيجارات الوحدات السكنية على مستوياتها نفسها حتى نهاية العام الجاري نظراً لضعف تأثير المعروض الجديد الذي سيدخل إلى السوق الذي لن يتعدى الموازنة بين كفي معادلة العرض والطلب.

ورجحت المصادر ل«الخليج» أن تميل أسعار الإيجارات تدريجياً إلى التراجع بحلول الأشهر الأولى من العام الجديد 2016 بنسبة تراوح بين 5 و10% فقط مع دخول المزيد من المعروض من الوحدات السكنية الأمر الذي سيؤثر لمصلحة العرض.
وتستشهد مصادر عقارية عاملة في سوق دبي بأن الدور الأبرز للقانون العقاري رقم 43 الذي أسهم بشكل واضح في تحديد زيادة بدل إيجار العقارات في دبي، الأمر الذي عكس حالة من التباطؤ في ارتفاع الأسعار وميلها إلى الاستقرار.
وذكرت المصادر أن أسعار إيجارات الفلل والشقق ارتفعت خلال 2014 بنسبة 4 و7% في المتوسط على التوالي، لافتة إلى أن الأسعار ارتفعت بنسبة 65% للشقق و55% للفلل منذ 2011 غير أنها لاتزال تقل بنسبة 25 و20% على التوالي عن أسعار 2008.

مهند الوادية: الاستقرار يغلب على أسعار الإيجارات في 2015

وأوضح مهند الوادية، المدير التنفيذي لشركة «هاربور العقارية»، والمحاضر في «كلية دبي العقارية»، أن أسعار إيجارات الوحدات السكنية في أغلبية مناطق دبي لا تزال تميل إلى الاستقرار والثبات عند نفس معدلاتها التي أنهت عندها 2014، ومن المتوقع أن تبدأ بالتراجع التدريجي بنسب بسيطة جداً تراوح بين 5 و10% فقط حتى بداية العام المقبل 2016.
وأشار الوادية إلى أن المرسوم رقم 43 لسنة 2013 أسهم في تحديد زيادة بدل إيجار العقارات في إمارة دبي، حيث وصّف المرسوم نسب الزيادة القصوى الممكنة عند تجديد عقود الإيجار.
ما أدى إلى خلق حالة من التباطؤ في ارتفاع الأسعار وميولها إلى الاستقرار.
ونص المرسوم على ألا تكون هناك أي زيادة في القيمة الإيجازية للوحدة العقارية إذا كان بدل إيجارها يقل عن 10% من متوسط أجر المثل، فيما حدّد الزيادة بنسبة 5% من القيمة الإيجارية إذا كان بدل إيجار الوحدة يقل بنسبة ت`راوح بين 11% و20%، من متوسط أجر المثل.
وحدد المرسوم زيادة قدرها 10% من القيمة الإيجارية للوحدة العقارية إذا كان بدل إيجارها يقل بنسبة تراوح بين 21% وحتى 30% من متوسط أجر المثل، وزيادة قدرها 15% إذا كان إيجار الوحدة يقل بنسبة تراوح بين 31% وحتى 40% من متوسط أجر المثل، فيما تبلغ الزيادة 20% من القيمة الإيجارية للوحدة العقارية إذا قل بدل إيجارها بنسبة تزيد على 40% من متوسط أجر المثل.
وأضاف الوادية قائلاً: «سيكون الاستقرار هو الطابع الغالب على أسعار الإيجارات في 2015 في الوقت الذي سيؤدي الطلب من جانب المستثمرين إلى تعزيز القيمة بفضل تجدد الثقة بالاقتصاد الذي أظهر نمواً قوياً على أرض الواقع في 2014».

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وكشف شركة «أستيكو» للخدمات العقارية، أن سبع مناطق في دبي انخفضت فيها أسعار إيجارات الوحدات السكنية خلال الربع الثاني من العام الجاري مقارنة بالربع الأول، إذ تراجعت إيجارات الشقق في تلك المناطق بنسب راوحت بين 1% و7% فقط.
وأشارت «أستيكو» إلى أن هذا الانخفاض في أسعار الإيجارات يعد الأول منذ بدء صعودها في عام 2012، عازياً السبب إلى استمرار ضخ معروض جديد من الوحدات السكنية في السوق.
وسجلت الإيجارات في منطقتي «ديسكفري غاردنز» و«إنترناشيونال ستي» تراجعاً بنسبة 7%، فيما سجلت مناطق «ديرة» و«شارع الشيخ زايد» و«جميرا بيتش ريزيدنس» انخفاضاً ب1%، في حين شهدت منطقة «دبي مارينا»، التي عانت مشكلات الأعمال الإنشائية والازدحام المروري مدة طويلة، انخفاضاً في أسعار الإيجارات بنسبة 2%، كما سجلت منطقة «جميرا فيليج» تراجعاً بالنسبة ذاتها.

متوسط الإيجار

أفادت الشركة بأن سعر إيجار (الاستوديو) سنوياً في منطقة «ديسكفري غاردنز»، راوح بين 45 و52 ألف درهم، فيما راوح إيجار الشقق غرفة نوم واحدة بين 60 و72 ألف درهم، بينما بلغ متوسط إيجار الشقق ذات الغرفتين بين 80 و90 ألف درهم.

من جانبها، أكدت شركة «ستاندرد للعقارات»، الإماراتية، التي تتخذ من دبي مقراً، أن قطاع الإيجارات شهد استقراراً في الأشهر الأولى من العام الجاري 2015، ولكنه بدأ تسجيل انخفاض طفيف خلال شهر إبريل/نيسان بضغط من دخول المزيد من الوحدات السكنية عبر مشروعات تطويرية تم الإعلان عنها خلال شهر إبريل.

وأرجعت بيانات الشركة تراجع إيجارات العقارات إلى دخول مزيد من الوحدات العقارية الجديدة في السوق أتاحت المزيد من الخيارات أمام المستأجرين وطمأنت السوق بشكل جعل من الهدوء سمة للسوق في الفترة الحالية، ما ضغط على الأسعار بشكل نسبي، حيث لفت التقرير إلى أنه تم الإعلان عما يقرب من خمسة مشروعات سكنية كبيرة في دبي خلال شهر ابريل فقط تستهدف قطاع الإيجار والبيع.

Boost your portfolio

By Mohanad Alwadiya

Long-term planning is paramount to maximize financial gains

I have a property portfolio consisting of a mix of one and two-bedroom apartments in Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Dubai Marina. How can I capitalize on opportunities that arise as the World Expo 2020 draws near?

You need to seek professional advice. Many landlords across Dubai are bound to miss out on the revenue-generating opportunities that the Expo will bring because of poor or non-existent planning. A competent property manager will maximize your financial gains by providing an assessment of the opportunities and a strategy. Do not make the mistake of leaving your planning for too late. You will need to comprehend current and future market conditions and events, factors that may enable or inhibit revenue growth, inflation and cost increases as well as a complete understanding of financial modelling and the ever-developing area of industry policy and regulation. Depending on the size and complexity of your portfolio, you should have, as a minimum, a rolling five-year activity plan, which covers cost management and maintenance schedules, pricing and marketing, and tenant management and policy. A competent property manager will also provide you with communications and review schedules, as well as status and financial reporting.

There are a lot of opportunities to buy off-plan at the moment. How can I protect myself against buying an apartment of inferior quality?

Firstly, make sure that you are dealing with a reputable developer. A positive effect of the recession was that a lot of inferior developers were exposed and are no longer in business. Seek professional guidance — those in the industry have a good understanding of who the reputable developers are. Secondly, ask about the proactive measures taken to ensure the product is built to an acceptable standard and take the time to inspect the developer’s completed projects. Warranties and any quality assurance policies should be discussed in detail. Get the sales and purchase agreements reviewed by a professional so you have legal recourse should any issues arise. Upon completion you have the right to inspect your apartment and report any legitimate issues to the developer for rectification. Matters that can be remedied in the short term should be fixed immediately. Remember, once you have taken ownership of the apartment, the developer is obliged to fix any issues that may arise for 12 months following the transfer of ownership.

Mohanad Alwadiya is Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate and advisory board member and instructor at the Dubai Real Estate Institute, the official training and certification arm of the Dubai Land Department.

Good broker, bad broker

By Mohanad Alwadiya

Does your agent do things right? Here’s what you need to look for:

We work in an industry that stirs up as much emotion as it does distrust and, in extreme circumstances, disdain. As an industry professional, I am not always comfortable with how my profession has been categorized, being compared at times to dodgy lawyers and unscrupulous used car salesmen. Not fair, I say.

There is no doubt that there are both good and bad practitioners in every profession; the trick is separating the gold from the gravel. Finding a strategic real estate partner to manage your project, however large or small, and act as a real extension of your team is not easy. There is a lot at stake and you want to engage a capable and reliable ally who you can trust to deliver the results that you expect. As the owner-occupier or investor, there are many considerations you have to take into account.

Look for an experienced and passionate team. You want people who really enjoy what they are doing, not just collecting the commission. It also helps if you engage an agency that can provide you with a broad range of services because investing in real-estate typically does not stop with a single transaction. Check whether the agency has a history of innovative solutions delivering tangible results. It’s a crowded market, and you want somebody who can make your property or project stand out. The key to getting the price that you want for your property is generating high levels of interest and intrigue. This requires excellent marketing and sales skills, and your broker should possess ample expertise in both.

The broker should also be in a position to immediately provide examples of past successes. An important part of the skill set that your broker must possess is the ability to advise how to best stage your property. Too many brokers limit their property presentation advice to a coat of paint and sweep of the floor. A properly staged property will always stand a much greater chance of commanding a premium price. Look for longevity.

The recent recession cleared out lot of marginal operators from the industry, and those who survived must have been doing something right. Seek an agency with strong network of corporate and industry partners. The agency that has good relationships with key industry stakeholders such as the major developers and authorities such as the Dubai Land Department, Real Estate Regulatory Agency, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and Department of Economic Department will be able to operate more efficiently and effectively.

Find a company that exhibits a breadth and depth of industry knowledge and expertise. Those who under-stand the industry are more likely to succeed within it and the advice that you receive from a knowledgeable, experienced and committed broker can save or make you tens of thousands of dirham’s. And finally, look for an agency that has received some form of industry or peer recognition. These are the hardest plaudits to get.

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Gulf News Freehold – Ask the Agent

I bought a studio in 2008 financed by a lending firm. Since it is not furnished yet, my lawyer told me to cancel the SPA but the lending firm did not agree.

Visit RERA ﬁrst to sort out the registration issue in Oqood as this is a prerequisite to any further action. Once the property is registered, meet with the lending company. Explain to them that you would like to terminate the finance agreement due to project delay. They will share with you the status of your liability. You then need to obtain compensation from the developer for the delay. Appoint a lawyer to determine if your contract has the proper compensation clause to support your case. If so, plot a course of action to receive what is rightfully yours under the contract. From the information you have provided, it appears that once the course of action is determined, you need to engage all parties and alert them of your intentions. It is then a case of you and your lawyer taking the necessary legal steps to resolve it.

I have an apartment that I have let through an agent. Despite numerous reminders, the agent has refused to pay me. What actions can I take?

The issue here is that you allowed the checks to be issued under the agent’s name. There is no reason to have allowed this and, unfortunately, the decision to do so has placed you in a vulnerable position.

I am not sure of the details of the contract that you have with your agent, but unless you have a proper property management agreement in place with a licensed property management firm, you should never allow the checks to be issued under the agent’s name.

Even if you have a property management agreement, you should stipulate that all cheques be issued in your favour and the property management firm is authorised to receive, issue receipts and bank the cheques into your account.

I am afraid your only option is to hire a legal consultant and go to court and file a legal case against the agent.

My husband and I bought an unfinished penthouse from a non-Emirati guy. Does he have to register it first so he can sell it?

Whatever happens, the penthouse must be registered first. Nothing can happen to affect the legal transfer of ownership of a property unless it is registered first. With regard to MOUs, they come in different formats with different content to suit the particular transaction at hand and each party’s wishes. If you want to ensure that it is legally binding, l suggest you hire a lawyer to draft it for you. Once the property is registered, you should visit the Dubai Land Department office or any of the trustee transfer offices and conduct the transfer of the property there. It appears to me that you have limited experience in concluding a property transaction such as this. My best advice for you is to hire a professional property consultant to take you through this journey in a professional and smooth manner.

I want to modify and extend my villa. What are the documents required and the procedures to be followed when it comes to making alterations?

You need to establish that the amendments do not threaten the structural integrity or safe habitation of your villa by you or by future owners should you decide to sell it one day. Therefore, you should prepare the architectural and MEP drawings for the proposed concept. These need to be viewed in conjunction with the architectural and MEP “as—built drawings” by different authorities and regulatory bodies to ensure the proposed designs are structurally sound and meet the building codes. You need to obtain NOCs from the owners association, zoning authorities, Civil Defence and even the project developer and DEWA. If the renovation is extensive, you may be required to have the work inspected by the Civil Defence and the Building Department. Your architect or contractor can arrange for all approvals on your behalf. Engage professionals who can achieve this for you.

I know that the market has slowed but is the slowdown being experienced across the board, or do some areas still look promising?

There is no doubt that the affordable segment in Dubai still shows a lot of promise. The properties In this segment will be in high demand as the emirate’s strong population continues to grow on the back of a strong recovery.

Properties located in non-prime areas continue to do very well. With the recovery in real estate going from strength to strength, we have witnessed the more affordable or secondary areas of the market continue to do well.

The demand for this type of affordable accommodation has been growing steadily as Dubai’s population swells in the run-up to the Expo and the demand for affordable housing increases.

Examples of affordable projects that are providing good rental returns and expected capital appreciation are the Skycourts and Queue Point located in Dubailand.

Other affordable residential destinations are the International Media Production Zone, International City and Discovery Gardens. These established communities offer a wide range of housing options for families and singles alike.

There is also the new project Town Square offering “value” apartments to newcomers in the city and families.

Gulf News Freehold – Ask the Agent

With the Dubai property market undergoing a correction, does it make sense to invest or wait until the market is showing signs of picking up?

While the market is cooling a little, there are advantages to be gained from purchasing now. The market will pick up again as the next five years are expected to see strong economic growth, but picking the exact timing is difficult. Start your property search immediately as a property investment requires the same approach regardless of the state of the market. Know what you can afford. If you have the cash, pay for it outright, but don’t be afraid to take a mortgage. Think about location, infrastructure, construction quality, developer reputation and building amenities. Consider the effectivity of the owners association, service charges and quality of maintenance services. Be purposeful, persistent, patient and pragmatic in your approach to make a sound investment decision.

There seems to be a lot of press and activity regarding the Expo 2020. How can I, as a landlord of four apartments, capitalise on any new opportunities?

Seek professional advice on to how to manage your portfolio. Many landlords across Dubai are bound to miss out on the revenue generating opportunities that the Expo will bring because of poor or non-existent planning.

A competent property manager will provide you with the best opportunity to maximise your financial gains. Do not make the mistake of leaving your planning too late. Know the current and likely future market conditions and events, risk factors that may enable or inhibit revenue growth, inflation and cost increases and a complete comprehension of financial modeling and the ever-developing area of industry policy and regulation. Depending on the size and complexity of your portfolio, make a five-year plan which covers pricing, cost management and maintenance schedules and several other considerations.

I have 14 apartments which are becoming too large to manage. I am considering hiring a property manager. What type of fees can I expect to pay?

It will vary by provider. It may be between 3% and 6% of the rental receipts; some will have an administrative fee. Understand what you expect from your property manager as the depth and breadth of their services vary greatly. You can negotiate a fee structure based on your actual requirements. Ask for referrals and make sure you follow up with some existing clients to check their efficiency and professionalism. A competent property manager will provide an assessment, strategy and activity plan designed to harness the financial potential of your property. You should have a rolling five-year activity plan which covers pricing, marketing and tenant management among others. A competent property manager will also provide you with review schedules regular financial reporting and many more.

With many new projects and off-plan opportunities, I am nervous about the quality of end products. Can we expect an improvement in quality?

During the global financial crisis, many developers realised that properties of poor quality were dealt the harshest of value declines. As a result, many developers did not survive. Having said that, the old caveat of “buyer beware” still applies. Deal with a reputable developer. Ask around or seek professional guidance. Ask what proactive measures are taken to ensure the end product has been built to an acceptable standard. Warranties and any quality assurance policies should be discussed in detail and have the sales and purchase agreement reviewed by a professional. Engage an expert to inspect (snag) your property and report any legitimate issues to the developer for rectification. Remember, once you have taken ownership of the apartment, the developer is still obliged to fix any issues that may arise during the full 12 months following the transfer of ownership.

Now that the market has corrected, there are many good opportunities in completed assets. Given the rising value of finished properties, are there advantages of buying off-plan now?

Purchasing an off-plan property. can provide you with superior capital gains by the time of completion, provided you are buying at a discount to today’s finished inventory and the market is expected to strengthen up to the completion date for the particular property that you are considering. This, of course, will depend on an estimation of economic growth, population expansion, the number of competing projects in the pipeline and the eventual industry inventory position.

Be smart about the product that you buy and try to avail yourself of a payment plan.

Look for certain property types complete with amenities and facilities in locations you believe will be keenly sought in the future. Do not assume that all property types in all locations will improve their values homogeneously. No market works this way. Also check the latest Metro route planning.

Deal with reputable developers only and check the status of the escrow account of the development. Escrow accounts were introduced under Law No. 8 whereby all property developers in Dubai must be registered with RERA and hold an escrow account which protects the funds of the buyers and ensures safety of the purchase.

التخطيط المالي الحذر والواقعي العامل الأهم لشراء منزل الأحلام

تخصيص 40% من الدخل لسداد دفعات الرهن العقاري

التخطيط المالي الحذر والواقعي العامل الأهم لشراء منزل الأحلام

دبي_ملحم الزبيدي:

كشفت دراسة حديثة لشركة “هاربور العقارية”، أن التخطيط المالي الحذر المبني على الواقعية والصدق مع النفس هو العامل الأهم عند البدء بالتفكير لشراء منزل الأحلام على الرغم من إجراءات التصحيح الراهنة في السوق، والفرص الثمينة المتاحة، وتوفر التمويل بتكلفة رخيصة.

وأشارت الدراسة التي أصدرتها مؤخرا شركة “هاربور” إلى أن النسبة الأفضل للاقتطاع من الدخل الشهري لسداد دفعات الرهن العقاري يجب أن لا تتجاوز 40% لتحقيق الهدف المرجو بامتلاك منزل العمر دون الوقوع في مشاكل التعثر المالي مستقبلا والذي قد تنتج عنه تحديات وخلافات مع الطرف البائع والغير محبذة.

وأيدت الدراسة أنه مع دخول السوق العقاري المحلي في دبي، قد حان الوقت للتفكير في استغلال الفرص الثمينة التي بدأت بالظهور والاستفادة من تراكم رأس المال المتوقع أن يستمر لفترة من الزمن تمتد من 5 إلى 7 سنوات.

وأوضحت أن الخطوة الأولى للأفراد الذين لا يملكون النقد الفوري للشراء هي تنظيم رهن عقاري لمنازلهم. فمن الأفضل أن تتوفر القدرة على تقديم عرض لشراء منزل مع وجود رهن عقاري قائم بدلاً من توقع ترتيب الرهن أثناء خوض غمار عملية التفاوض.

إذن، ما هي الطريقة المثلى لاختيار الرهن العقاري المناسب؟

أولاً، علينا أن ننظر إلى أحوالنا الاقتصادية خلال العامين المقبلين على الأقل، ونطرح على أنفسنا السؤال التالي: “بالنظر إلى الدخل المتوقع ونمط الحياة المنشود، كم يبلغ مقدار دفعة الرهن العقاري التي نستطيع تحملها خلال السنتين المقبلتين؟”.

لماذا نركز على فترة سنتين؟ … لأن غالبية أسعار الفائدة على الرهون العقارية ثابتة حالياً لمدة عامين، وبعد ذلك من المتوقع أن ترتفع هذه الأسعار لأن الرهن يخضع حينئذ لمعدلات متغيرة بدلاً من المعدل الحالي الثابت.

ثانيا، تقدير الدخل المتوقع. وهنا يجب أن نكون واقعيين. كلنا نأمل في التقدم بسرعة في مساراتنا الوظيفية (والمالية بالطبع) لكن غالبية الناس يتعرضون لخيبة الأمل في هذا الصدد والقليل منهم ينعمون بالنجاح. وبالرغم مما ورد في التقارير حول زيادة رواتب العاملين في دبي بنسبة 5% خلال عام 2015، تدل التجارب على أن زيادات الرواتب إنما تترافق مع زيادة في تكاليف المعيشة بحيث يتوجب اتخاذ منهج متحفظ في تقدير التدفقات النقدية المستقبلية.

وهذا يحيلنا إلى دراسة مسار ونمط المعيشة في السنوات القليلة المقبلة، مثل، هل هناك نية لإنجاب طفل جديد في المستقبل القريب؟ ….أو ربما شراء سيارة جديدة؟ أو كيف ستؤثر الأحداث العائلية الهامة أو التطورات في نمط المعيشة على الدخل المتاح للإنفاق؟ هل لديك أطفال سيدخلون المدرسة خلال الفترة الزمنية المذكورة؟ سوف يكون لجميع هذه الأحداث أثر على الدخل المتاح للإنفاق، وهذا سوف يضعف المرونة المالية اللازمة لامتصاص صدمات أسعار الفائدة.

وأخيراً، فإن الخطة المجدية من الناحية المالية قد لا تكون مقبولة لمن يرغب بالشراء أو لدى شريكة حياته. والأسئلة المطروحة التي يجب الإجابة عليها هنا، ما مدى الاستعداد للتضحية في سبيل سداد أقساط الرهن العقاري؟ ما هي الأمور التي نستطيع التخلي عنها وما هي التغييرات التي يمكن أن نجريها على نمط حياتك؟ من جديد، وهنا لا بد من أن نوظف الصادق مع أنفسنا.

وبمجرد اختيار طريقة السداد والتقيد بها، حسب دراسة “هاربور” فإن الأمر يتعلق بتحديد مبلغ الرهن الذي يمكننا لالتزام بسداده. وهذا يتحدد وفق معدل القرض إلى القيمة الذي يمكن أن نقبل به، وقيمة المدخرات النقدية التي نستعد لدفعها مقابل العقار، ومدة القرض وسعر الفائدة المتوقع دفعه في البداية وفي المستقبل بعد ذلك.

عند اللجوء إلى مختصي شركات الرهن العقاري، سوف يقدمون المساعدة على تقييم نوع الرهن العقاري الأفضل من خلال تقييم عدد من العوامل المحددة مثل الديون الأخرى (ومنها البطاقات الائتمانية) التي قد تكون مترتبة على المستفيد، ومدى إمكانية الاعتماد على مسارات الدخل الحالية والمستقبلية، ومعدل القرض إلى القيمة الأفضل، ونوع الرهن العقاري، والدخل الحقيقي القابل للإنفاق، والأصول الأخرى المملوكة. ولا نستغرب هنا إذا ما تم الحصول على حلول مغايرة من شركات الرهن العقاري المختلفة بما في ذلك خيارات السداد. وتشتمل هذه الخيارات على النوع الأكثر شيوعاَ من الرهن العقاري وهو طريقة رأس المال والفائدة (الرصيد القابل للتخفيض)، وهناك أيضاً طريقة دفعات الفائدة فقط، وطريقة الدفعات الجزئية، وطريقة الفائدة الجزئية فقط، على الرغم من أن هذه الأصناف تستخدم غالباً لأغراض استثمارية معينة فحسب.

وفي تلك الحالة يتعين الاختيار بين الرهن العقاري بالسعر الثابت أو السعر المتغير أو السعر المختلط (الثابت والمتغير). ومن جديد، علينا أن نفكر ضمن استراتيجية المدى الطويل. فإذا كان من المتوقع تغير أو ارتفاع أسعار الرهن العقاري، وفي العديد من الحالات يكون المعدل المتغير أكبر من الثابت، لذا لا بد من التخطيط السليم.

وفي المقابل، إذا كان متوقعا انخفاض أسعار الفائدة في المستقبل القريب، فإن اعتماد سعر الفائدة المتغير هو الحل الأكثر منطقية ما دام الراغب بالشراء يتمتع بالمرونة في التعامل مع زيادة دفعات الرهن العقاري إذا ما خالفت أسعار الفائدة توقعاته واتجهت للارتفاع.

ولفتت الدراسة إلى أن هنالك عدد من البنود التي ينبغي دراستها في إطار مفاوضات للحصول على الرهن العقاري. وهنا يجب محاولة الحصول على إعفاء من رسوم مؤسسة التمويل العقاري، حيث تختلف هذه الرسوم من مؤسسة لأخرى، وبالإمكان توفير 3 آلاف درهم بفضل هذا الإجراء.

أيضاً، على من يرغب بالشراء طلب تفعيل بند الإعفاء من الغرامة في حال القيام بسداد الرهن العقاري بوتيرة أسرع من المقرر أو دفعة واحدة. ينص القانون على أن شركة الرهن العقاري لا يحق لها أن تستوفي أكثر من 1% من القيمة القائمة أو ما لا يتجاوز 10 آلاف درهم، لكن يجب السعي لإسقاط هذا النص من عقد الرهن العقاري مع الشركة.

وأخيراً، يجب التأكد من أن شركة التمويل العقاري سوف تسمح بالاستفادة من حقوق الملكية الناشئة على المنزل بالتزامن مع الالتزام بسداد المستحقات. سوف تكون هذه الحقوق مفيدة جداً إذا ما ازدادت قيمة العقار نتيجة لتحسن الظروف الاقتصادية أو عوامل السوق. وسوف تسمح بعض البنوك باستخدام هذه الحقوق كضمان للقروض في المستقبل. ويمكن أن يعود ذلك بالنفع على المشتري إذا ما كان راغبا في إجراء تحسينات كبيرة في المنزل أو شراء سيارة جديدة أو حتى الاستثمار في عقار آخر.

واختتمت الدراسة بالتأكيد على أن العامل الأهم عند اختيار الرهن العقاري هو معرفة ما نريد بالدرجة الأولى واختيار الرهن الأكثر ملاءمة لنا على المدى الطويل بالدرجة الثانية.

Property Weekly

July 2015: Where are we?

For the past six months, headlines have been making many and varied references to a real estate correction in Dubai. This is not surprising as indeed Dubai’s real estate industry is in the midst of one. Many view the term correction with suspicion and trepidation, particularly those with a more tactical and less strategic short-term point of view.

Those who take a long-term perspective look at a correction with anticipation as it refers to the elimination of systemic issues and making the necessary adjustments to deal with impacts of external issues on the efficient operation of the real estate market.

There is no doubt that a correction was overdue. The year 2013 will be remembered as Dubai’s comeback year as the total value of real estate transactions reached Dh234 billion, a 52 per cent increase on 2012, which was clearly unsustainable as witnessed when the correction began last year when Dh218 billion worth of real estate assets were sold, a reduction of over Dh16 billion on the previous year. At the time of writing, just over Dh63 billion worth of transactions has taken place this year, indicating that the market is well and truly entered its correctional phase.

Changing cash flows

The market definitely benefited from high levels of liquidity during 2012 and 2013. Capital inflows seeking safe haven from regional conflicts were strong. However, they were sure to weaken and have. Geopolitical events such as the Ukraine conflict and subsequent economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West sent the rouble rapidly declining in value, making investing in Dubai an increasingly expensive proposition for Russians, who historically have been prevalent in the investing community.

In addition, changes to mortgage laws also dampened the availability of capital for investors wishing to use leverage to capitalise on attractive property valuations and the promise of high and sustainable rental yields.

Vying for investment

A slew of new projects being launched as a result of renewed developer optimism also placed pressure on liquidity levels and, eventually, prices market wide. Initially, launches were made with prices for off plan units consistent and supportive to prices for completed units.

However, with each additional launch, competition for the investor money intensified, leading to a gradual reduction in prices for off plan units and making the risk reward equation more palatable for off plan units versus completed units.

In addition, the shift of developer focus in response to the call for more affordable housing also meant that investors gravitated towards this – perhaps the most important structural correction in the market to date.

The number of new launches has been impressive, leaving many to question whether over – exuberance on behalf of developers will result in a significant oversupply. Calculating optimal supply levels, especially when emerging from a recessionary period, is particularly challenging. It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for real estate assets that will emanate from Dubai’s population growth, which will be largely driven by overall economic growth. In addition, supply needs to factor in a lag effect from the time that conditions conducive to development are identified by developers and when properties are completed and are released on to the market.

We at Harbor take a minimum five year view when looking at equilibrium or imbalances in the market. When taking into account the nature of its resurgence, the strong growth in fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that while inventory levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the end of our five year forecast period.

Steady supply

There will be about 11,000 villas, 7,500 town houses and 35,000 apartments delivered between now and 2020. While this may seem a lot, remember that we are entering a period where demand for property – particularly those that are affordable is expected to rise signiﬁcantly and given average occupation rates are currently about 80-85 per cent, there is not much margin for error in terms of satisfying expected demand.

Put simply, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at an estimated 5 per cent annually for the remainder of the decade and to deliver initiatives such as the World Expo 2020. The expo alone is expected to generate an additional 270,000 jobs and drive demand for housing and commercial facilities that don’t exist.

Much of the city’s planning estimates the number of people living in the emir ate to grow to 3.4 million by 2020 – a 7 per cent annual increase from today’s population of 2.25 million.

Expo led growth

There is no doubt that a stabilised real estate market will provide a much better launch pad for what will be a period of significant economic and commercial activity over the next five to seven years. The structural shift towards more affordable housing will not only accommodate the expected rapid population growth associated with the Expo 2020, but is also an important factor in the development of Dubai’s economy. Every emerging market needs to develop a strong middle class, whose expansion is critical to growing a sustainable economy and developing resilience in the face of external financial and economic shocks.

In addition, for Dubai to compete effectively in the region and globally, it needs to ensure that the cost of doing business in the emirate does not position it as an outlier when entrepreneurs or corporations are considering alternative locations for their operations.

When taking this perspective, the correction could not have come at a better time.

Property Times – June 2015

I have been lucky in my professional life to have met and worked with some very successful investors. While I have found each to be different in personality, style and even investment philosophy, there are some attitudes, traits and perspectives that are shared among the most successful investors I have had the privilege to have met. Thinking back to many interesting discussions I have had with these people… some of whom are my most loyal and respected clients… there are several statements that we often hear in our everyday professional lives which I have not heard from this group of achievers. This is what separates them from the rest.

“I hate (insert anything) … “

I have rarely heard my successful investors project a negative stance about anything in their professional life. This is not to say that they support every philosophy, concept or idea and they will also not accept an occurrence which is contrary to what they think should have happened. But instead of expressing such a negative emotion as hate, they continue to think positively and seek positives from a situation or take a positive approach to remedying that which they do not agree with. As a result, the dialogue is always positive, creating an environment positivity, proactivity and energy directed towards progress. Taking this approach also helps to create a pleasant, purposeful and fruitful environment in which to work and helps to maintain or even build esteem and confidence among those that can contribute to achieving exceptional results. It promotes objectivity, focus and decisiveness.

“That’s not fair”

The world is not a fair place never has been and never will be, and successful investors understand, embrace and accept that. This allows them to be immune from the negativity that can arise when an individual feels hard done by or cheated. It also allows them to plan, create contingencies and maintain a positive attitude when a seemingly unfair occurrence occurs resulting in a greater chance to respond to a situation rapidly and appropriately rather than dwelling on the fact that an occurrence was “unfair”.

“That’s not how it’s done here”

An open mind is essential to develop, progress and eventual success. Successful investors will embrace new ideas and innovation. To not realise that progress is created from ingredients consisting of past experience and innovation is to rely too heavily on tried and true practices that gradually lose relevance over time. This form of decay has destroyed entrepreneurs, global corporations and even whole economies and societies. With globalization, the world has become a much smaller place. To not embrace, improve and implement world’s best practice and only holding close what you are comfortable is the biggest threat to creating continued success.

“I am a self-made man”

Nobody has ever made it on their own. It was once thought that the iconic, independent, totally self-sufficient, unchallengeable, silent-type, hard-nosed entrepreneur who left metaphorical bodies in his wake as he doggedly climbed the mountain of success was the role model that should be emulated by all who craved achievement. Many have tried and they all failed. No-one can achieve success on their own. As a matter of fact, the most successful people I have met have surrounded themselves with successful people and ensured that those people shared in their success. They seek opinions, listen carefully, discuss intelligently, consider alternatives and have their decisions reviewed. They reward those who contribute to their achievements and help them succeed as well for this is also a valuable way to learn and build momentum at the same time.

“That’s impossible”

Successful people know that nothing is impossible and hold the belief that every problem has a solution, some of which just haven’t been thought of yet. Anything is possible as long as there is a willingness to explore, question and challenge and imagination is intensely applied and ingenuity is rewarded. Achievers do not complain about obstacles. They embrace them so as to gain an understanding as to how they can be overcome for they truly believe that nothing is insurmountable. Negative words like “can’t,” “won’t,” and “impossible” are never heard from the mouths of successful individuals. They know complaining will not help them, but actually doing something about the issue at hand will.

“I could have”

Could have… would have … should have. We have all heard these expressions of retrospective folly. Experts in hindsight have no place at the table of successful people and regret is a fruitless and pointless emotion. Successful people thrive on opportunities not lost opportunities. If they cannot make one opportunity work to their satisfaction, they move on and find another opportunity. Regret simply slows down the effective pursuit of the next great opportunity.

“I have no choice”

Victims have no choice. Successful investors create alternative solutions to every problem and will carefully consider all of them. In this way, successful investors are never victims for they create an environment filled with choices. Then it’s just a matter of deciding which choice represents the best way forward. Successful investors know how to create opportunities where normal people think none seemingly exist. Successful investors believe that opportunities always will exist, but they are hidden in the recesses of our individual and collective imaginations. The reason why they are successful is largely due to their determination and ability to extract those opportunities, while others are stagnating in the belief that they don’t exist!!

Gulf News Freehold – Ask The Agent

I own an apartment in Dubai. I got a new tenant and increased its rent but I cannot raise it further according to the rental index. The market seems to have peaked. Should I sell it?

Yes, there is price correction, but we are far removed from experiencing a long-term trend. Looking over the next five years, we expect the market to achieve an average price growth of around 7%. Bear in mind that we are talking averages here and popular areas have a habit of outperforming the average. It really comes down to alternatives. If you have identified an alternative investment to give you a better income stream and capital return than what you expect to receive in five years from your apartment, then the right decision may be to sell. However, if you have not, hold on to the property. You will continue to receive at least a 5-7% net rental return and achieve around 7% per annum capital growth in the future.

Why is it that the rents of not so new apartments in some areas remain high? The rates in these areas did not fall as much when recession struck and when rents increased, their rents also increased fast. How come?

The value of a particular location is usually derived from the levels of pleasure, lifestyle convenience, security, harmony, future economic value or even status that can be derived from the property. Whether it is a spectacular view (sea, lake and others) or proximity to public transport, business districts, entertainment, dining, schools or hospitals, the perceived benefits that a location may bring to a prospective tenant can account for up to 90%, Areas close to the beach and entertainment venues as well as properties located close to/within. Downtown Dubai or the business district will command a location premium. Most potential tenants consider a view as a key factor for their house to be enjoyed.

I think that l am paying excessive service charges. Getting access to information that might prove my suspicions is difficult. Is my OA obliged to provide me with information?

Attending owners association (OA) meetings and requesting details on the service charges would be the logical place to start and they are obliged to address your query. Remember, the purpose of the OA is to manage, operate and maintain the common areas, virtually all of the “owner shared” elements of the building. They do this by appointing contractors with the expertise to carry out the required tasks and set a service charge that all owners must pay to cover the cost of the contractor services. The OA is a “not for profit” business entity in its own right with the powers to operate a bank account, sue (or be sued), purchase, own and dispose of assets and enter legally binding agreements. You can request and view the financial statements of the association to ensure the charges you are paying are justified and correct.

Reports are saying that the market has slowed and prices are correcting. Is it a good time to buy?

Picking the exact timing is difficult. Start your property search immediately as this kind of investment requires the same approach regardless of the state of the market. Know what you can afford. If you have the cash, pay for it outright, but you can always take a mortgage. Think carefully about location, surrounding infrastructure, construction quality, developer reputation and building amenities. If you have close access to the Metro, even better. Also consider the effectivity of the OA, service charges and the quality of maintenance services as these affect the long-term value of your investment. Be purposeful, persistent, patient and pragmatic in your approach and you are well on the way to making a very sound investment decision. However, if you decide to rent, there are also great deals. With robust tenant protection legislation and a rental index to limit your exposure to increases, your rights will be recognised.

The property market seems to swing in favour of buyers and investors. Where do you believe the best investment opportunities are likely to appear?

Definitely in, the affordable segment of the market. We are encouraging clients to invest in this segment as it has great opportunities.

Excellent examples, of high performing yet affordable developments are the Skycourts and Queue Point communities in Dubailand. These have seen excellent capital growth.

Demand for this type of affordable housing will continue to grow and we expect other developments that are located close to the two communities to benefit as well, especially as Dubai’s population swells in the run-up to the Expo and the demand for affordable housing increases.

A smart move would be to invest in an apartment and retain ownership for at least five years as I am confident that you will benefit from superior capital growth and enjoy very healthy net annual rental return in the meantime.

In addition, consider looking at the apartments in Sarah Ajmal and Windsor Residence. They are all expected to perform very well as the demand for affordable properties continues to grow.

Of course, there are the established areas such as Remraam, International City, Discovery Gardens and International Media Production Zone, while the Town Square project is one to watch out for.