10 عوامل مؤثرة في المشهد العقاري خلال 2017

قال مهند الوادية المحاضر في معهد دبي العقاري التابع لدائرة الأراضي والأملاك بدبي ومقدم برنامج معمار بنسختيه التلفزيونية والإذاعية، ان قطاع العقارات في دبي اثبت جدارته وسط ارتفاع حدة المنافسة العالمية على استقطاب رؤوس الأموال. إذ لا يزال السوق يتصدر قائمة اهم الوجهات الاستثمارية العالمية. وأوضح الوادية أن هناك 10 عوامل من وجهة نظره ستؤثر على أداء قطاعات العقارات المحلية والعالمية وقدرتها على جذب المشترين من فئة المشتريين النهائيين أو المستثمرين وهي :

1 أسعار النفط

إن سعر النفط لا يزال يؤثر على مستويات السيولة، وعلى القوة الشرائية وأداء اقتصادات الدول التي يعتمد اقتصادها على عوائد النفط وأيضا على ثقة المستثمرين بشكل عام. ولذلك ليس هناك شك في أن الحفاظ على أسعار النفط عند أو فوق 50 $ /‏ برميل خلال عام 2017 سيساعد ايجابيا على أداء قطاع العقارات لاسيما وأن اقتصاد دبي غادر منذ زمن الاعتماد الكامل على النفط في نموه متوجها إلى التنويع.

2 أسعار العملات

تبلغ نسبة المستثمرين في عقارات دبي ممن يتعاملون بعملات غير مرتبطة بالدولار الأميركي بين 40٪ و 50٪ ولذلك تبرز قوة الدولار كتحدي. ولعل اقرب مثال كان في انخفاض قيمة الروبل الروسي الذي أدى إلى تراجع الاستثمارات الروسية في سوق العقارات في دبي والتي عوضها إلى حد بعيد المستثمر الصيني.

3 الاستقرار السياسي

تتمتع الأسواق العقارية التي تقع في بلدان آمنة بنمو مستقر وذلك يظهر جليا في دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة، في حين يتزايد قلق المستثمرين في اغلب الأسواق العقارية العالمية بسبب تأثرها بالتقلبات السياسية والنزاعات التي تضرب العديد من المناطق في العالم.

4 العرض والطلب

بلغ سوق عقارات دبي نضجاً واضحاً على صعيد التحرك وفقا للعرض والطلب ويتوقع أن يشهد 2017 توازناً بين العرض والطلب لاسيما مع مضي العديد من شركات التطوير العقاري بالتوجه لتلبية ذوي الدخل المتوسط وهي الشريحة التي تمثل أكبر فئة في قائمة الطلب على العقارات في الوقت الراهن.

5 التشريعات

أثبتت دبي بتطويرها المستمر للبنية التشريعية مقدرتها على حماية حقوق أطراف التعاقد عموما والمستثمرين خصوصا ويتوقع أن تواصل السلطات التشريعية تطوير الإطار القانوني في عام 2017 الأمر الذي يرفع مستويات الثقة بالسوق لاسيما سوق الإيجارات.

6 الرهن العقاري

يتوقع أن يساهم الرهن العقاري في زيادة نمو القطاع فقد كانت حصة صفقات الشراء الممولة بالقروض 30٪ -35٪ من اجمالي المبيعات لكنها زادت إلى 45٪ و50% تقريبا خلال 2016 وهذا يعكس ارتفاع ثقة المؤسسات والبنوك في قطاع العقارات ونجاح الأطراف في التكيف مع الآليات التي ظهرت في 2014 لتنظيم الرهن العقاري.

7 ثقة المستثمرين

تراجعت مستويات ثقة المستثمرين على مستوى العالم على خلفية التقلبات الاقتصادية والسياسية العالمية في السنوات القليلة الماضية. مستويات عدم اليقين المحيطة بالسياسات الاقتصادية والاضطرابات الجيوسياسية والتوتر الاجتماعي في العديد من البلدان في جميع أنحاء العالم افرزت جواً من التردد ومع ذلك، تمكن قطاع العقارات في دبي من المضي قدما بإجراءات تعزز ثقة المستمرين.

8أداء القطاعات الاستثمارية

عائدات الاستثمار في عقارات دبي لا تتوقف عند 7 وحتى 9 % سنويا في سوق الإيجارات بل يتجاوزه إلى زيادة القيمة الرأسمالية للعقار ما بين 5-7% سنويا في سوق البيع وتحديدا عقارات ذوي الدخل المتوسط والواقعة في مناطق دبي الجديدة واذا ما اضفنا إلى تلك العائدات ميزة حرية انتقال الأموال تصبح ثقة المستثمر بعقارات دبي محصلة طبيعية بينما يواجه المستثمرون في العديد من الدول قيوداً على ذلك الصعيد وكان آخرها الصين.

9 الإنفاق الحكومي

تواصل دبي الإنفاق على مشاريع البينة التحتية على نحو مستمر في إطار التزامها بدعم التنمية الاقتصادية وهذا يقود إلى اتساع رقعة عمليات التطوير الحضري من جانب شركات التطوير العقاري لاسيما – في المستقبل القريب- التي تلبي متطلبات استضافة اكسبو العالمي 2020 والذي بدوره سيدعم الاقتصاد ليسجل نمواً ما بين 4 – 3.5٪.

10 التسجيل العقاري

رسوم شراء وسرعة تسجيل العقارات في دبي تعد تنافسية على الصعيد العالمي، وأكدت أراضي دبي أنها لا تعتزم زيادتها ، ومن المتوقع أن تستمر وتيرة عروض القيمة المضافة كخطط الدفع الميسرة من قبل المطورين وعروض البيع التي تتضمن رسوم التسجيل المدفوعة من قبل المطورين مما سيزيد من جاذبية قطاع العقارات في دبي للمشتريين النهائيين والمستثمرين.

REITS… preferred by some investors

In November of 2016, Saudi Arabia created its local version of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). The reasoning behind this move was to enable the smaller investors to provide liquidity to the market and support government efforts to resolve a housing shortage and increase the percentage of housing generated by developers to 30 per cent from its current level of 10 per cent.

So, while there are advantages for the government to have financial structures such as REIT’s to support burgeoning property and construction industries, what are the advantages for the investors who will be providing the capital?

There was a time when the property game was for the wealthy investor and those with only small amounts to invest had to look elsewhere to invest their hard-earned capital. This is no longer the case due to the rise of new investment platforms which enable even the smallest of investors to enjoy the returns of investing in property.

One such platform which is relatively new to the local market is the REIT. REIT is an acronym for Real Estate Investment Trust which, as a trust company that accumulates a pool of money through an initial public offering (IPO), buys, develops, manages and sells real estate assets. The IPO is identical to any other security offering with many of the same rules regarding disclosure and reporting requirements and regulations.

Investors, whether large or small, instead of purchasing stock in a single company, have the opportunity to buy a unit which is actually a portion of a managed pool of real estate. This pool of real estate then generates income through renting, leasing, selling and financing of property and distributes it directly to the REIT holder on a regular basis.

Units held in a REIT can be bought like a stock on a stock exchange. The REIT invests in real estate directly, either by buying, selling or leasing properties or by investing in property mortgages.
There are 3 types of REIT’s. Equity REITs invest in and own properties and therefore are focused on increasing the value of those properties while also accumulating revenues from their properties’ rents. Mortgage REITs deal in investment and ownership of property mortgages. These REITs loan money for mortgages to owners of real estate, or purchase existing mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. Their revenues are generated primarily by the interest that they earn on the mortgage loans while Hybrid REITs combine the investment strategies of equity REITs and mortgage REITs by investing in both properties and mortgages.

Individuals can invest in REITs either by purchasing their shares directly on an open exchange or by investing in a mutual fund that specializes in REITs that are listed on the stock exchange. Among other things, REITs invest in shopping malls, office buildings, apartments, warehouses and hotels. Some REITs will invest specifically in one area of real estate – shopping malls, for example – or in one specific region, state or country. Investing in REITs is a liquid, dividend-paying means of participating in the real estate market.

REITS allow both small and large investors the ability to invest in real estate without investing large amounts of capital or devoting a lot of time in directly managing a property portfolio. A REIT also allows a greater amount of portfolio diversification because of the large amounts of pooled funds available to the REIT Management team enables the accumulation and operation of different types of property assets in different locales.

Investing in a REIT is no different to investing in any company. Some companies represent lucrative opportunities, while some companies may represent too much risk or poor value. Investors still need to look at the REITS performance in terms of Nett Asset Value growth and dividend payment history, current portfolio composition and performance, the management team, future plans for the REIT as well as have an understanding of the likely performance of the property market and overall economy in which the REIT participates. Investors, having completed a thorough and in depth assessment of the probability that the REIT will provide desired returns, can participate at the level that is consistent with what they can afford to invest.

Another investment platform which allows smaller investors to participate in the property market is Crowdfunding. A relatively new concept Crowdfunding entails the pooling of funds by a group of individuals to finance initiatives such as real estate investment projects. This is usually done via the internet.

The advantages are obvious. Investors get access to the real estate market with small amounts of money and can pick and can efficiently choose which Real Estate projects they wish to invest in, thereby spreading risk and enabling the possibility of building a portfolio made up of a variety of assets, in a variety of locations being developed by a variety of developers.

For developers, Crowdfunding provides another source of funding for their projects. Using the internet is an efficient way of attracting interest to their projects and the reach that the internet provides magnifies the potential for raising funds more quickly.

However, as with any investment, Crowdfunding is not without its risks. Obviously, investors will be exposed to any gyrations in the market along with all the other investors. In addition, the risk of default from developers can be higher when compared to peer-to-peer and direct real estate investment funding. In addition, unlike investing in a REIT, the absence of a secondary market restricts the ease with which an investor can liquidate his or her position. These risks need to be considered carefully when determining the type of return required and, as with any investment, extensive due diligence by all investors, regardless of whether they be big and small, is of paramount importance.

Structural Shift

It is always a very promising sign when an industry demonstrates the flexibility and resilience to undertake a structural shift when market requirements change or develop. This is exactly what has happened in Dubai’s property and real estate industry.

It came as no surprise to those that take a broader view of the industry that calls from a variety of industry participants including the government, banks and the more visionary industry observers for more affordable housing in Dubai had gathered volume and intensity over the past few years. In so doing, there was a recognition that the most important investor in Dubai’s Real Estate market had been forgotten too often by developers and brokers and that a refocusing on building affordable, robust and sustainable communities to be inhabited by the average family living frugally on an average salary was of irrefutable importance if Dubai’s economy was to develop and grow to the next level.

The bedrock of any property industry is its owner occupiers. They represent the core of the industry as it is they who view property as an investment in life, not just a way to make a quick buck. And yet only recently have they attracted focus in Dubai’s rapidly maturing industry which is more proportionate to their importance.

Owner occupiers see Real Estate in a different light. Typically they are normal people, not overly wealthy, who are concerned with providing the family with a future. For them, it’s about creating a lifestyle. Its about creating a home which will provide an environment that is safe and secure within which the individual, couple or family can grow and develop in all aspects whether physical, emotional, social and, of course, financial. In this respect they have a lot more at stake than those investors with financial interests only.

Healthy, vibrant and progressive communities are built around the stability that owner occupiers bring. They are less likely to migrate to another neighborhood and are more concerned with regards to the overall well being of the community that they are part of. They establish relationships that strengthen the fabric of a community which itself can become a powerful voice for progress.

And these communities are now springing into life all over Dubai. Communities such as Skycourts, Q Point and Motor City in Dubailand have shown how rapidly communities can develop and grow to provide a lifestyle that belies their affordability.

So who needs to ensure that this most important consumer segment is catered for in an industry which can be notoriously out of touch with consumer requirements? Well, just about everybody who plays a role in our industry but, more significantly, the government, the financiers and the developers. And given the results of 2016, they are to be congratulated for initiating the structural shifts that we are witnessing.

The dialogue regarding the dual objectives of affordability and profitable sustainable growth for the real estate sector must be ongoing as a continual and constant review of possible initiatives and regulatory actions that will ensure that the considerable progress already made and foundations laid in strengthening and modelling the industry is continually built upon. The health of the industry is too important and the issue of affordability is critical to the broader economy as well. Dubai can ill afford becoming cost uncompetitive in the global market in the lead up to the 2020 World Expo.

For any Real Estate market to function efficiently and effectively, it requires a banking sector which is also functioning efficiently and effectively. Banks play a fundamental role in enabling prospective home owner occupiers own a piece of Real Estate. If you consider that in most global markets, anywhere between 65% and 85% of residential property transactions involve some form of financing, and reflect on the fact that in Dubai the number of residential property purchases financed by mortgages in 2016 was around 50% there appears to be plenty of scope for more growth. This number is actually up from the 33% historically seen in the emirate so it appears that the banks are discovering the formula of providing accessible finance to a broader consumer base without taking on excessive, whether real or perceived, risk.

Developers have come a long way in providing greater supply of affordable housing. To their credit, they now have a deeper understanding of what is required by this segment of the market. They themselves have improved in providing recognizable value, emanating from a greater focus on the customers and their requirements and value expectations. Some have demonstrated innovative approaches to delivering affordable solutions which are valued by the customer, and done so profitably.

Virtually every industry has faced this challenge over the last 5 decades and many have demonstrated that giant strides in the provision of true value while retaining healthy margins is possible. Dubai’s property Industry will continue to follow a similar path in 2017.

WHY TRUMP WILL MATTER IN 2017

I read other day that Dubai developer Damac Properties has confirmed that work on its major golf-course projects including the Trump International Golf Club Dubai are on track. Good news indeed!
Regardless of what you think about Donald Trump, he has established an immediately identifiable global brand and there is no doubt that he will influence the economy of Dubai and, more specifically, the property industry here.

But I am not talking about the Donald who “dabbles” in real estate, construction, hospitality, entertainment, book and magazine publishing, media, model management, retail, financial services, board game development, food and beverages, business education, online travel, airlines, helicopter air services, beauty pageants (etc. etc.) here …

… I am talking about the next President of the United States or POTUS.

As POTUS, decisions (and Tweets for that matter) made by Donald will influence the strength of the US Dollar which just so happens to be one major issue that is likely to face Dubai’s Real Estate Industry in 2017. Already, the campaign promises, rhetoric and ubiquitous tweets have already given rise to the “Trump” effect and, combined with the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase of December 14, has already driven the USD to its highest level in almost 15 years.

What’s more, it is likely that, given the Feds intention to embark upon at least 3 interest rate hikes in 2017, the USD will remain at this elevated level for at least the first 6 months of 2017 which is likely to dampen the amount of investor capital that flows into the property market.

A strengthening US dollar, in an industry where 40% of purchases are made by investors that hail from countries whose currencies float freely, could have significant effects.

Potential investors from India, Pakistan and China will find it more expensive to invest in the emirate, just as Russian investors have over the past 3 years as the ruble devalued.

A strengthening US dollar will also make property in other markets such as the UK, Asia or Europe more attractive, essentially putting pressure on the amount of capital being invested in Dubai.
Meanwhile, it appears that the on-going saga of the Brexit implementation is likely to carry on for some time, probably leading to a continuance of a weak British pound for the foreseeable future. The local property market is likely to continue to feel the pressure of the Brexit effect.

So, what is the likelihood of a strong USD in the first half of 2017? … very likely !
But it isn’t all doom and gloom … far from it.

What happens in the latter half of 2017 is a bit more of a mystery but, already, pundits are saying that the Trump effect will not last and that his campaign promises regarding fiscal, trade and immigration policies will be very difficult to achieve.

If so, and given the Federal Reserve’s history of changing course on predicted interest rate hikes, it is not unlikely that we could see a weakening of the USD sometime on the latter half of 2017. Once we get clarity on the likelihood of this occurring, we could see confidence growing amongst investors and capital flows reverse, to the benefit of the local market.

From a macro level, Dubai needs people to support an economy that is expected to grow at a targeted 4%+ in 2017 and beyond. Underpinning this growth trajectory is a commitment and determination to deliver on initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo and, in 2017, we will see the countdown to 2020 and the massive infrastructural investment associated with the event markedly gather pace.

While Dubai’s reliance on oil is minimal due to its economic diversification initiatives, the recent OPEC (and others) agreement to cap oil supply resulting in in higher oil prices is, nevertheless, welcomed. This augers well for a return of the Russian investor whose ruble has been the best performing currency for the last 3 months but should also see increased capital being available to local investors.

Tourism and trade is flourishing in Dubai and the focus of spending has been on new projects to grow these important revenue generating economic segments and further diversification. The launch of 2 major theme parks in 2016 will ensure Dubai attracts over 15 million visitors in 2017, continuing a growth trend of approximately 10% per annum since 2010 and is well on track to attracting over 20 million visitors in 2020.

So, I see 2017, the first year of Donald’s reign as POTUS, as being a year of two halves … first half of the year being really a continuation of the market uncertainty that has been such a characteristic of 2016, as the world comes to grips with what the new POTUS can actually achieve …

… while the latter half of 2017 to be more positive, with an increase in investor confidence and therefore investment activity, property values and first home ownership as the tangible and real effects of world events, such as the US elections and Brexit, that so surprised us in 2016, begin to become more apparent and the risks associated more assessable.

Rather sooner than later, I think!

Investing in 2017? Five key points to ask

1- HOW MUCH DO YOU REALLY KNOW ABOUT PROPERTY AS AN INVESTMENT?

You must have some knowledge about any investment that you might be considering. Property is no different. The old adage of “Don’t invest in anything you don’t know” applies. You may not be an expert, but you need to be able to communicate intelligently and knowledgeably with the experts.

Do some homework on the industry and gain an understanding of where the industry is now, where it is headed and what is driving its direction and development. Get a feeling of its composition and what it has to offer you in terms of wealth generation opportunities, how you might be able to engage those opportunities and when you envisage starting your foray into the property investing space.

It’s difficult for anybody to accurately assess opportunities and the risks associated with those opportunities if they have little knowledge of what it is they are investing in.

2- ARE YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES CLEARLY DEFINED AND WELL CONSIDERED?

As with any investment, investing in property is all about recognizing and capitalizing on opportunities that are consistent and supportive to your overall wealth accumulation objectives.

You must have a clear understanding of what you are trying to achieve and what role your property portfolio will play within a larger diversified investment portfolio. What proportion of your total investment portfolio is allocated towards property? towards stocks or bonds? towards gold or commodities? etc.

The only person who can determine what you are trying to achieve is you so be sure you know you’re your objectives are before doing anything.

3- WHAT IS YOUR SOURCE OF FINANCE?

Needless to say, investing in property is often a capital intensive exercise and, depending on your strategy, returns can be subject to relatively long lead times. A sufficient and robust finance plan is essential.

What is your source of finance and where do the greatest risks lie in the event of an economic downturn or change in circumstances?  How liquid might you need to be? How exposed will you be to interest rate increases and or exchange rate fluctuations? What level of gearing or leverage are you comfortable with? Will you be able to preserve capital invested in your property portfolio during cyclical swings in the market or will you need to move capital among portfolios?

All these questions (and many more) need to be addressed and the more skillful you are at conceptualizing your wealth generation schematic, the greater your likelihood of generating successful strategies to grow your wealth.

4- DO YOU HAVE A FINANCIAL ADVISOR? (THAT YOU TRUST)

I always recommend that clients consult with a financial advisor prior to embarking upon the purchase of a property.

Investing in property requires careful planning and a clear understanding of what it will entail; the effects it will have on lifestyle, the risks it may pose, the stresses that may emerge while, at the same time, the benefits of generating wealth in, what can be,  a very lucrative industry . A financial advisor can help you understand and assess all these elements by helping you determine what you actually need to do (or do without) to achieve your objectives.

Ask yourself if you know definitively what you can afford, how best to use available finance, how to accurately assess alternative investment options, how best to utilize your current assets and how investing in real estate is going to enable you to grow your wealth in the future. A financial advisor will view your investment as one part of your overall financial landscape and should be able to guide you into committing the right type and the right amount of resources to acquiring that dream home that everybody aspires to.

As with any investment, investing in property is all about recognizing and capitalizing on opportunities that are consistent and supportive to your overall wealth accumulation objectives.

5- DO YOU HAVE A TEAM OF PROFESSIONALS (THAT YOU TRUST) WHO CAN ASSIST YOU IN YOUR QUEST?

Are you able to identify, engage and work with a professional in the industry? Do you have the skill to select the right agency? Do you know what separates professionals that will provide you with tangible added value rather than simply line their pockets with your money? It’s up to you to choose wisely and remember, cheapest is not always best.

Do you know where to find an experienced and passionate team with people who really enjoy what they are doing? An agency that exhibits a breadth and depth of industry knowledge and expertise? This is important.

Look for longevity and evidence of good relationships with key industry stakeholders such as the major developers or authorities such as the   Dubai Land Department, RERA, DEWA or Economic Department.

And finally, look for an agency that has received some form of Industry or peer recognition. These are the hardest plaudits to get!