Investors hunt for bargains

Investors hunt for bargains after debt scare

Property sales enquiries have picked up, despite Dubai World’s request to creditors for an extension of debt repayments for its subsidiaries, Nakheel and Limitless, say real estate agents.

Mohanad Alwadiya, managing director of Harbor Real Estate, believes the hike in interest is a result of the debt crisis. “Since the Dubai World announcement, we have recorded a noticeable increase in the number of queries from private and institutional investors who are interested in taking advantage of the impact that the announcement may have on the overall prices of property in Dubai and in Nakheel developments in specific.”

Aditya Awtani, of Fine and Country UAE, has also witnessed a surge in investor interest. “We have already noticed in the last few days that vulture investors are pooling together, forming informal/quasi funds, in order to take advantage of the so-called distress situation.”

Although the Dubai World request caused global markets to plunge and attracted criticism in the international press, Alwadiya feels the situation has been overblown. However, he feels the incident has affected investor confidence. “Since the beginning of the economic crisis, consumers and investors have been extremely cautious. Whether we like it or not, they are fragile. The old adage of ‘once bitten twice shy’ will never be as apt as in the next few months. It is as much understandable as it is unavoidable. Simply put, many people have been hurt by the Dubai real estate crash and they don’t want to be hurt again. In effect, they have lost confidence and trust in the industry and have developed a risk aversion which will take some time to overcome. The recent request by Dubai World for an extension on debt repayment timings, resulting in speculative press coverage around the world regarding Dubai’s ability to avoid defaulting on its debts, will further erode confidence in the emirate. We definitely feel that the international media is blowing this news out of proportion but unfortunately, perception is reality and a major effort will be required to reverse world opinion.”

Aditya says investors with the means should shop around, “It’s a great time if you are a cash buyer, because banks are anticipated to get more tight-fisted, as they will come under pressure in a bid to keep a safety net due to their exposure to Dubai World.”

Myles Bush, managing director, PowerHouse Properties, thinks the debt issue is unlikely to stop the market from rebounding. “I believe in Dubai and am very confident about its property market in the long term.”

Making owners pay service charges a major challenge

A lack of transparency over the cost of maintaining a building, low quality standards and services and confusion over what is covered by service charges have angered owners and led to many refusing to pay the charges, say industry sources.

Adrian Quinn, Chairman of Dubai-based strata management firm Essential Community Management, said that if a building has service fee arrears of 40 per cent, it would not be possible to continue maintaining it internally or externally.

The available funds would have to be used to make payments to the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, insurance companies, master developers and district cooling suppliers.

Essential Community provide strata management services to more than 40 developers in Dubai and has worked with master developers Emaar and Nakheel.

Quinn said the major challenge for the strata sector in Dubai is making owners pay the building service fees.

“The delay in the enforcement of the strata law is allowing many owners to avoid paying their strata service fees,” he added. “This is due to many developers not wanting to – or not knowing how to – recover the outstanding service fees via the terms and conditions of their contracts of sale.

“Most contracts allow for the developer to sell the apartment or villa in the event of non-payment and also recover all the legal costs and penalties.”

According to a recent survey by Dubai-based real estate broker Harbor Real Estate, the average annual service charges for buildings across Dubai are Dh16 per square foot.

“The highest service charges recorded were in and around Downtown Burj Dubai at about Dh22 per sq ft, while the lowest were in the Greens at Dh11 per sq ft,” said Harbor Managing Director, Mohanad Alwadiya.

“Consumers are no longer able to ignore the pinch of the economic downturn and investors and owner-occupiers alike are starting to evaluate very carefully the impact of service charges on the financial performance of their property and their own personal wealth.”

The survey, shared exclusively with Emirate Business, reveals that the overall average charge for villa communities is Dh2.5 per sq ft calculated on the overall plot size. Charges for villas are highest on The Palm Jumeirah, where the highest are between Dh4 and Dh5 per sq ft. “The lowest price is about Dh1.16 per sq ft for some of the villas in the Meadows community. This is broken down into Dh1.03 per sq ft for the general fund, Dh0.05 per sq ft for the capital reserve fund and Dh0.08 per sq ft for the master community levy,” said Alwadiya.

He said many developers who sold off-plan properties had not calculated the service charges at the time of sale, leaving many investors not knowing what the fees would be until the buildings were handed over.

“This makes it difficult for investors to determine the yield estimates on potential investments and adds a further element of uncertainty in an already uncertain environment. When buyers are considering purchasing properties, a unit that is complete with fees already apparent is more appealing than an off-plan transaction,” said Alwadiya.

“The majority of developers of projects that are still under construction do not provide service charge figures until the building is completed. On the other hand, most buyers and sellers, and even brokers, will not mention this important subject until the final stages of the negotiation process.”

Walid Jaafar, a partner at the Dubai-based Fichte & Co Legal Consultancy, said the official gazette announcement of Law No27 of 2007 on Ownership of Jointly Owned Properties in Dubai – the strata law – was published on December 31, 2007. Article 33 of the law says the legislation will come into effect within three months of the date of publication – ie on April 1, 2008.

“However, the law has still to be implemented,” said Jaafar. “The law does not address the issue of tenants. The law is intended to regularise the relationship between the owners of units in a specific development.

“This matter is usually left to the owner and the tenant to agree on. However, in practice, unless agreed otherwise between the parties in a tenancy agreement, the service fees should be covered by the owner.”

Fichte & Co has not yet seen any cases involving disputes over unpaid service fees, but does not exclude the possibility that a few are being reviewed by courts.

“In the absence of a regulatory law and the absence of any owners’ associations, the only possibility to file such cases lies in the hands of the master-developers or the sub-developers,” said Jaafar. “The claims in such a case would be based on the sale and purchase agreements and the master declarations attached to them.”

Quinn said that, once implemented, the strata law would create more transparency within owners’ associations. “If a building does not use all the budgeted funds in a year, the owners at the annual general assembly would have the right to decrease the next year’s budget or transfer the funds into the sinking fund,” he added.

The law makes it mandatory for every strata to have a 10-year sinking fund to ensure that money is set aside to pay for long-term capital expenditure.

“We at Essential Community automatically create a 20- or 25-year sinking fund to ensure all major plant and equipment are properly budgeted for on normal lifecycle cost structures.”

A strata general manager is appointed by the landlords of the building to create a draft budget, which is then reviewed by a board.

“After it has been approved by the board it is sent to all owners before the annual general assembly and is then approved there,” said Quinn. “After the meeting has approved all the agenda items it is then up to the strata general manager to enact all the motions and ensure they are carried out.”

Quinn said the most important duties of a strata manager are to oversee the facilities management companies to ensure they and their sub-contractors carry out the jobs they are contracted to do.

“There is a major conflict of interest if a strata management company has its own facilities management company,” he added.

Landlords will control what the owners’ association does and how it spends funds through the elected board.

“This means that the individual landlords will have some power in what the service fees will be and be able to rectify things. The enforcement of the strata law will make it possible to split buildings into multiple cost structures,” said Quinn.

“The first is the master cost structure, which would pay the master community service fees, buildings insurance, essential service costs, the managers’ fees, the facilities managers’ fees, district cooling charges, etc.

“The second cost structure would be the residential component of the building, so it would pay all the costs for the specifically residential component, for example lifts, foyers, gyms, pools and car parks. The third cost structure could be then the commercial portion of the building and cover all the commercial areas.”

Jaafar said: “When the owners have control of their buildings they will, through their board, review complaints of tenants and issues to ensure a good relationship is maintained.

“At present a tenant may have problems and issues with the building he is in, but the developer does not want to know about it or does not understand what they need to do to rectify them. There are some developers that are doing a good job in running their buildings, but everyone still has problems with conflicts of interest issues on maintenance items.”

Jaafar said according to Article 25 (2) of the strata law, if a unit owner fails to pay the service fees, the manager of the owner’s association would take action against the owner three months after notifying him through the notary public, enforceable by the execution judge in any competent court.

“However, the unit owner may object to this decision within the three-month period. In such a case, the execution shall be withheld until a decision in the subject of the objection has been reached.” Meanwhile, analysts called for the strata law to be enforced as soon as possible.

Nicole Betts, Senior Manager of Asteco Association Management, said that while Dubai awaited the regulations that supported the jointly-owned property law, Asteco had been working for several years with a number of high-profile clients well ahead of the implementation of the law.

“We have been helping companies establish informal owner associations, set up service charge and budgeting models, set community rules as well as facility management and service provider selection procedures based on best international practices,” she said.

“Some companies are actively encouraging owners to take control for themselves – albeit at this stage this has to be done under the developer’s name.

“A good example is the MAG Group which is dedicated to transparency. We have worked with them from conception of their MAG 214 Jumeirah Lakes Towers project through to delivering onsite management services to an informal owners’ association. Our team works closely with the owners’ management board to assist them to preserve, maintain and enhance the tower.”

Mohammed Nimer, Chief Executive Officer of MAG Group Property Development, said: “We have always operated in an environment of transparency, so it was natural for our company to introduce best practice in property management to enable owners to truly run their own buildings.”

Asteco has also been working with another developer for the V3 Tower, also located at Jumeirah Lakes, where handover to owners commenced recently.

“Our role is to administer day-to-day operations and assist in the formation of an informal owners’ association and a management board,” added Betts.

Burj Dubai units to see stable long-term growth

Long-term prospects for investors in the Burj Dubai tower are relatively solid if they have paid a fair price, with expected appreciation of 10 to 15 per cent per annum over the time, believe realty experts.

In a survey conducted by Emirates Business, Mike Atwell, Head of Middle East Operations, Cushman & Wakefield; Matthew Green, Associate Director, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), Middle East; Adel Hamaizia, Sales and Marketing Director, RE/MAX Abu Dhabi, Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director, Harbor Real Estate; Chet Riley, Equity Research, Middle East, Nomura International, and Venkateshwaran Ramadoss, Senior Research Analyst, Real Estate Department, Kuwait Financial Centre, said iconic buildings are attractive to both investors and occupiers, but the building’s success depends on the supply and demand dynamics in the market.

Emaar Chairman Mohammed Alabbar has said Burj Dubai will open on January 4, 2010 to coincide with the four-year anniversary of accession to power by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

Experts said returns on quality assets have always been there. However, investors have to take a long-term view on property and move away from the speculative model that has evolved in Dubai.

Is buying commercial or residential units in Burj Dubai a wise choice today since prices have bottomed out?

Atwell: Although the property market within Dubai has witnessed a significant price correction this year, we believe it is still too early to say whether prices have bottomed out. A degree of uncertainty remains in the market, caused by a number of factors including lack of available debt financing, potential over-supply and quantifying end-user demand.

Green: If we look in isolation at current prices over 2008 levels, then it certainly looks an attractive investment. However, we must remember that the market has changed significantly over the last 12 months and investors can no longer assume double-digit annual growth rates. During the period demand has weakened substantially, pushing vacancy rates higher and adding to the risk of unit voids. Investment decisions within the current market climate will thus vary, dependant on the overriding driver. Those looking for buy-to-let properties are likely to be more cautious considering weaker demand levels, while those looking at owner occupier assets are likely to be more bullish.

Hamaizia: Yes, as the saying goes “what goes up must come down”, and in this context vice-versa. Major cities of the world (mostly now mature) have all seen cycles of which crazy, semi or mini booms witnessed crazy prices that came down substantially. For example, half or less/50 per cent down –London in the early 90s, Singapore more recently… but subsequently observed a stable recovery, typically reaching at least 75-85 per cent of peak times.

Alwadiya: Investment recommendations are unique for each client and are directly linked to the structure of returns that an investor is seeking in a project. In reality, those clients who paid extremely high prices for Burj properties in 2008 will not enjoy initial healthy return on investment (RoI) per annum – as rental prices continue to drop as a result of the global economic crisis. Some may receive as little as two per cent return on investment in their first year or two. However, those investors who are instead seeking the benefits of long-term capital appreciation and are able to wait for 10 years, enduring lower RoI per annum, will be handsomely rewarded for their patience. I personally believe the price of the Burj will continue to grow at a promising rate over the next 10 years making it an extremely worthwhile investment over other projects.

We were against the investment in the Burj last year due to the rapid price escalation that was seen in the project in 2008 but we will definitely recommend investing currently to capitalise on the excellent prices that are currently on offer and the expected capital appreciation that will be generated as soon as the tower is launched.

Riley: The Burj Dubai is already, and will remain, an iconic building and the focal point for the downtown area. As such residential space should normally have additional intrinsic value and demand but we still believe any investment in real estate should be undertaken for the long term. The choice to buy (or lease) commercial space has to be made considering a number of different variables depending on use. For example, rental levels and potential yields, service charges, tenant demand and expected occupancy, which all ultimately drive capital values. We believe in the long-term prospects of Dubai considering the positioning and infrastructure spend to date. This gives the emirate a lead over regional counterparts, so we believe there will always be a long-term demand for high quality property.

Ramadoss: An analysis of Colliers International’s Q3 2009 foreign ownership house price index suggests prices for properties under construction in Downtown Burj Dubai increased by 15 per cent, while excluding this, the index contracts. This is essentially the premium assigned to the development approaching completion which got captured. While prices appeared to have bottomed out in general, these are not clear signals of a complete turnaround as prices could track down should there be a market- wide contraction. Hence, it would be appropriate to buy if the intention is to have a stable income potential or to bet on the extent of premium that is still left to be priced.

Do you believe the tower offers a good investment proposition for long-term inventors?

Atwell: The Burj Dubai is well located, being within close proximity of the existing and future key CBD areas – DIFC, Sheikh Zayed Road and Business Bay. It is also well serviced by other amenities, including surrounding hotels, Souk Al Bahar and Dubai Mall. The Burj Dubai is an iconic building and will be the tallest man-made structure ever built. It is in a prime location and forms the centrepiece of Downtown Dubai, a large-scale masterplan development that will include more than 30,000 residential units, Dubai Mall, nine hotels and commercial space. The building itself will contain 175-key Armani hotel plus Armani Apartments, an additional 700 apartments and office space, although how much remains unclear. Iconic buildings are attractive to both investors and occupiers. However, the building’s success will ultimately depend on the supply and demand dynamics in the market, pricing and the underlying property fundamentals. Other key factors will include the operational efficiency of the building, which is dependent on but not limited to the building management system, lifts, parking, accessibility, public transport and how the strata management company is run.

Green: Returns on quality assets are there to be had, but investors need to start taking a more long-term view on property and move away from the speculative model that has evolved in Dubai. When choosing an asset to invest in, it is important to select a product that has a genuine lasting prospect for returns. The Burj Dubai will offer a prestigious address within the world’s tallest tower, a superior product quality, world-class facilities, and, importantly, it should also be well managed. All these factors would suggest the long-term prospects for investors are relatively solid, assuming a fair price is paid.

Hamaizia: Prices of property situated in proximity to, or that are a part of any signature or world famous building tend to hold value (long term) or are semi-immune to economics or exogenous shocks… be it London, Paris, New York or Dubai for that matter (due to views, footfall/tourism, shopping or financial districts or interest in that structure from an arts or architectural perspective).

Alwadiya: The Burj Dubai tower has all the factors that will set it for success: iconic design, excellent location, exceptional finishes, first-rate facilities, fantastic mix of assets. Any investment in a tower of this calibre is viable now and will continue to be well into the future.

Riley: Investors with long-term investment horizons have generally done well from property across most international markets, but as we have recently seen both residential and commercial property markets are subject to cycles, which can have some large swings. As the market becomes more established in Dubai, cycles should start to stretch longer and become less volatile. Previously speculative gains were driving the market, but we expect to see investment returns at much lower levels than those seen during the construction phase. One of the core tenets of property investment is its lower risk nature, but ultimately this equates to lower returns. Good quality property should deliver stable investment income with some capital appreciation, which is what long-term investors are generally looking for.

Ramadoss: Such towers often get a prestige value attached to them and would be a low-risk/low-return investment option as they tend to be pricey. The advantage is in its lower volatility as prices tend to contract at a smaller multiple relative to the market, as is the case with a typical ultra high-end developments. However, one needs to assess the extent of premium by comparing it with peer developments across the globe as in the current scenario, it could attract speculative interests as well.

What kind of appreciation can one expect in the long term, say five to 10 years?

Atwell: Capital growth is dependent on both rents and yields, which are in turn affected by numerous other factors. We cannot forecast anticipated appreciation over the long term. However, we would anticipate yields will sharpen from the double digit expected returns that we see today.

Green: If we consider the rapid change in Dubai over the last five years, then you can see the pitfalls of predicting the future in such an un-transparent environment. The Dubai market needs a period of stability so that investors can start to regain some of the confidence lost as a result of the downturn. Only after this is achieved can we really start to look for any level of price growth.

Hamaizia: As aforementioned, real estate history of the New Yorks, Singapores and Londons of this world, have always seen a stable recovery (back to at least 75-85 per cent of peak times within five years), when infrastructure, employment, investment and other city value-adding activities are taking place, supporting or present.

Alwadiya: The Burj is by far one of the best investments currently available for those investors who are able to wait for capital growth as opposed to initial return on investment per annum. It is likely that we will see a significant increase in the amount of unit trading following the tower launch in January. The Burj will continue to retain its value after its launch, and will increase its financial value/appreciate over time with an estimated rate of 10-15 per cent per annum. If you compare its price to the different towers around the world that once held the title of “the tallest”, you will see that they still today command an average price of over Dh10,000 per square foot. This is a far cry from what we are experiencing in today’s market where we are seeing the Burj command a price of less than half that amount.

Riley: We expect the level of capital appreciation to be relatively moderate in the short term. Over a five to 10 year horizon, we would normally expect moderate capital appreciation of perhaps five per cent per annum for this type of property, but this also depends on economic factors and conditions such as inflation. Generally speaking, Dubai’s residential and commercial properties are both linked to the economic cycle, perhaps more so than established markets, because the population base is more transitory. So this is a consideration for investors. Ultimately the ‘buy to let’ investor group will determine the market value so rents should establish the valuation floor.

Ramadoss: Longer-term price appreciation would tend to reflect the market level price appreciation. However, the price behaviour would be similar to the performance of a low beta stock comparedto the market average price change.